Key Takeaways

• Regions that are projected to experience the most internal climate migrations by 2050 include Sub-Saharan Africa (86 million migrants), East Asia and the Pacific (49 million migrants), and South Asia (40 million migrants).
• According to the New York Times, barely habitable hot zones constitute 1% of global destinations. However, this proportion is expected to increase significantly to 19% by 2070.
• The Kiribati government recently encouraged its citizens to move abroad due to expected climate change effects.
• Increased migrations could spark nativist and nationalist political agendas in the receiving countries.
• The UK experienced a 16.6% point increase in its aggregate GDP due to migration activity from 1990 to 2016.

Introduction

Scale & Affected Countries

• Global migration is expected to increase significantly in the future. According to findings from the Groundswell report on climate migration, there will be an estimated 216 million internal climate migrants by 2050.
• According to the New York Times, barely habitable hot zones constitute 1% of global destinations. However, this proportion is expected to increase significantly to 19% by 2070.

 

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• Regions that are projected to experience the most internal climate migrations by 2050 include Sub-Saharan Africa (86 million migrants), East Asia and the Pacific (49 million migrants), and South Asia (40 million migrants).
• Other likely impacted regions are North Africa (19 million migrants), Latin America (17 million migrants), and Eastern Europe and Central Asia (5 million migrants).

 

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• Smaller countries, especially island locations with extensive coastlines, such as the Republic of Kiribati, are more likely to experience climate-induced migration. The Kiribati government recently encouraged its citizens to move abroad due to expected climate change effects.
• This move would also increase international awareness of the climate threats to Pacific island countries.

Drivers & Potential Destination Countries

• The expected drivers for climate migration include water scarcity, rising sea levels, extreme weather conditions, and reduced crop productivity.

 

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• Regions and areas more vulnerable to climate change and poverty are expected to be impacted more significantly.
• However, the populations in these regions have fewer resources and are not expected to move too far beyond their borders. They would likely settle in more climate-friendly destinations in neighboring countries.
• The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member countries are currently the preferred destinations for international migrants. They are expected to remain so in the coming years.

Migration Consequences for Receiving Countries

Political Polarity

• Increased migrations could spark nativist and nationalist political agendas in the receiving countries. Since current migration patterns and results lay the blueprint for future projections, the 2015 case of 1.2 million asylum applications to countries in the European Union provides a good illustration of this scenario.
• The applications, mainly originating from countries such as Afghanistan, Syria, and Iraq, divided the public opinion on "the effects of immigration on society and fueled support for nativist political parties across Europe."
• Subsequently, political parties have leveraged public anxieties regarding immigration to gain political advantage in the EU.

Positive Economic Contributions

• As observed over time, the long-term consequences of migration lead to positive economic contributions to the receiving country.
• Expansions in labor, entrepreneurship, and human capital often generate income that can be used to bolster socioeconomic development.
• For example, the UK experienced a 16.6% point increase in its aggregate GDP due to migration activity from 1990 to 2016.
• Furthermore, World Bank believes that if receiving regions implement proper strategies, they can help poorer climate migrants move out of poverty, which confirms the likelihood of them contributing meaningfully to the receiving economies. It also points out that "integrating climate migration within broader migration patterns can help fuel a country’s next generation of skills and jobs in both sending and receiving areas."

Accelerated Urbanization

• According to the United States Institute of Peace (USIP), the global urban population is expected to double from 2015 to 2020, with climate migration as one of the primary reasons.
• As lower-income populations from rural areas are likely to migrate to areas close to home, they are likely to perceive cities as more stable and offering better economic opportunities.
• While it could foster economic growth through access to affordable skilled labor and additional tax revenues, it may also put additional strain on already overpopulated cities with limited resources.
• Another possible effect is social instability, given that many migrants are likely to only choose the location briefly, while high-income residents may decide to move to a less overcrowded region.
• Migration to cities and resulting increased urbanization will be particularly problematic in Asian cities, which already struggle to provide resources, healthcare, and education to their citizens. If they fail to prepare, most of the migrants may end up living in slums and other informal settlements. Eventually, accelerated urbanization in those areas may exacerbate inequalities and even lead to conflict.
• According to Joanna Kocsis, a Ph.D. one of the leads at the Urban Climate Resilience in Southeast Asia Partnership, in some areas, "migration can undermine people’s rights," meaning that people moving from rural to urban areas will often be undocumented and without legal rights, while also not having access to necessary infrastructure.

Research Strategy