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When it comes to tableware, how has consumer purchasing behavior changed over the last 5-10 years in the U.S.? Specifically, is there research and data that shows shifts away from formal china, silver flatware, and crystal glassware and accessories? What is the dollar market impact?
While there is no pre-existing public information to fully answer your question (the best data being provided only in expensive market reports), we've used the available data to pull together key findings: The current US tableware market is $7.96 billion, and is expected to grow to $12.7 billion by 2021. All sources agree that there is an ongoing shift from formal to informal tableware, but we could not locate a public source which provides a dollar amount for that shift.
Below you'll find an outline of our research methodology to better understand why information you've requested is publicly unavailable, as well as a deep dive into our findings.
PROPRIETARY MARKET RESEARCH
The best research in this area, which was referenced by nearly all other sources, is contained in a handful of proprietary market research reports, such as this one by the Fredonia Group. We also found several global reports which provided information about the North American market which may or may not contain the requested information. However, these reports are expensive to obtain, ranging from $750 to several thousand dollars, and consequently could not be used in our research. We have therefore triangulated an answer from the available abstracts of the above reports, other public statistical data, and information from trusted media sources.
THE OVERALL MARKET
While the US tableware market is expected to experience "healthy growth," reaching $12.7 billion by 2021, this market includes both high-end china and low-end casual dining pieces and even plasticware. While the abstracts of the existing market reports did not state the current US tableware market, we could triangulate it from other sources.
At its height in 2008, the US expenditure on tableware was $29.73 per consumer. This dropped to $23.65 per consumer in 2009 and continued to drop to a low of $18.56 per consumer in 2013. The market is growing again, but has yet to reach its pre-recession levels, reaching only $24.61 per consumer in 2016. We can calculate the full market size by multiplying the expenditure per consumer by the number of households in the US as follows:
This means that from 2008 to 2013, the market "grew" at a CAGR of -8.27%, then grew at a CAGR of 10.69% to 2016. To reach the projected market of $12.7 billion by 2021, the rate of growth will slow to 8.74%.
FORMAL VS INFORMAL TABLEWARE
According to the abstracts of the existing market reports, "U.S. containerized imports of tableware and household goods reached an all-time high in 2015," growing by 3.1% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2015. This growth rode "on the back of increasing disposable income and an ongoing recovery in the home sales market." In short, as Millennials have attained more disposable income and purchased their first homes, outfitting those homes has fueled healthy growth in tableware, as well as other household goods.
However, this growth has been driven more by informal than formal diningware in the market: "Suppliers of the latter are challenged by a dramatic shift in dinnerware styling that favors casual pieces over formal – and often much more expensive ones – made of materials such as bone china and porcelain." In addition, "The low cost and convenience offered by microwavable plasticware containers and disposable flatware attracts time-constrained consumers."
A recent survey shows that 31.1% of US consumers expect to pay less than $20 "for modern or contemporary dinnerware," less even than the average per-consumer spend of $24.61 in 2016. This demand for low-cost alternatives has driven most of the manufacturing market overseas, with the "handful" of remaining domestic manufacturers attempting to recast themselves "as high-quality purveyors of goods that preserve local production heritages." However, they have been forced to severely cut back operations, with one US flatware company reporting cutting back from 2,000 employees to 35. While this example is somewhat tangential to the subject of tableware in general, it provides a very stark picture of the change in American buying habits when it comes to tableware.
Though all sources agree that the shift to less formal diningware is affecting the market, we were unable to locate a public source which provided a dollar amount for that impact. The Freedonia report claims to have market segmentation by plasticware, metalware, glassware, ceramicware, and woodware, but they have not released that information publicly.
PAPER AND PLASTIC TABLEWARE MARKET
While there has been some growth in the disposable tableware market, we were unable to find a public source which would let us put a dollar amount on this subsector's growth. However, there are a few secondary indicators that we can look at: In 2011, an estimated 208.14 million Americans used disposable cups and plates, a number projected to reach 225.79 million in 2020, a growth of 0.91% per year. This only slightly outpaces the current US population growth of 0.7% per year, from 314.28 million in 2012 to 325.44 million in 2017.
While the percentage of Americans who use disposable tableware is provably increasing, we could not find a public source which demonstrates that the frequency of use is increasing, let alone by how much. For example, recent market reports put the total US paper cup and plate market at $104 billion, but this is mostly due to the "well-established food service sector" rather than private home use. We also could not find a source indicating that greater use of disposable tableware has a major impact on the overall tableware market. Our hypothesis is that this is because the impact is minimal, as occasional use of disposables for convenience does not mean that the household in question does not also purchase more conventional, permanent tableware.
CONCLUSION
We triangulate that the 2016 US tableware market was $7.96 billion, and current market report project that it will grow to over $12 billion by 2021, fueled by more disposable income and home purchases by Millennials. However, while we could not establish a dollar amount, all sources agree that the market has been impacted by a shift from high-quality china, porcelain, etc. to more economic materials. There has been some growth in the use of disposable tableware, but we could not find a source that indicates that this has a significant impact on the overall market.