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What's the value of the peer-to-peer selling market globally and what proportion is traded through eBay?
Hello! Thanks for your question about the global value of peer-to-peer selling market and the proportion it is traded through eBay. The short version is I estimate the global market value of B2C and C2C was 266 billion USD in 2016. Considering eBay's net revenue in this same year was 9.3 billion, it's market share is around 3.5%. Please find below a deep dive of my findings, and the specific assumptions and calculations that allowed me to reach these estimates.
PEER-TO-PEER SELLING MARKET
In order to provide a better explanation of the market composition, I will start by outlining some definitions and relevant distinctions. A Peer-to-peer (P2P) economy refers to modern and tech-enabled business models (for multiple industries), where buyer and seller trade directly, without an intermediary. Within the P2P economy there are different business models. Some refer to sharing economy models (where individuals contract or borrow things or services), while others refer to the direct exchange of goods (retail e-commerce). Originally, retail e-commerce was dominated by marketplaces like eBay and Amazon, which connected consumers to consumers. As those services grew in popularity, they began to be also used by businesses as an additional sales channel. This added another dimension to available business models, namely: Consumer to consumer (C2C) and Business to Consumer (B2C) (please note the are additional models, like B2B, C2B, etc.).
Currently, eBay, Amazon, Alibaba, and similar marketplaces are meant for C2C and B2C business models, were buyers directly buy goods from other consumers, or from businesses, without the need for a physical intermediary (i.e. a retail store).
ESTIMATING GLOBAL C2C/B2C MARKET VALUE
Data for estimating the total market value is available, however it is rarely reported by category. And even when it is, different reports tend to consider different categories. A good starting point for estimating the global market value of eBay-like P2P services, is the e-commerce retail market, which considers all C2C, B2C, and retail stores e-commerce sales. According to eMarketer, global retail e-commerce sales in 2016 totaled 1.9 trillion USD. The next step would be to identify what proportion of this number can be attributed to C2C and B2C markets.
After searching through multiple industry reports, I was only able to find the share of B2C and C2C global market value for 2014. According to an article from the International Journal of Networks and Communications, the C2C market size was 105 billion USD in 2014, while the B2C market size was only 71 billion. According to eMarketer, in 2014 the total global retail e-commerce sales was 1.3 trillion. That means, B2C and C2C market size represented around 14% of global e-commerce retail size in 2014. However, eMarketer estimated double digit growth rates for B2C e-commerce sales, which means that, for 2016, it is likely the percentage C2C and B2C represent grows slightly, but this number is uncertain. If that proportion of B2C and C2C market size is the same in 2016, then the value of B2C and C2C markets is around 14% of 1.9 trillion USD, meaning its 2016 value is approximately 266 billion USD.
eBAY'S MARKET SHARE
eBay's net revenue in 2016 was 9.3 billion, representing around 3.5% of the total B2C and C2C market. On the other hand, eBay's Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) was 83 billion USD. This number is useful for comparing B2C and C2C sales with competitors like Amazon, Tmall and Taobao, since these companies may offer additional services that generate revenue. For example, Amazon's revenue in 2016 was over 135 billion USD, however this number includes their cloud based services and Amazon prime subscriptions, which are not retail sales. To learn more about eBay's competitors and GMV comparisons, a Wonder request about eBay's competitive landscape may be useful.
To wrap it up, the value of e-commerce market is complex, and therefore its worldwide market value may vary depending on the variables considered. Nonetheless, assuming B2C and C2C market share is around 14% of the e-commerce retail market, the global value is reached 266 billion USD in 2016. In this same year, eBay's net revenue was 9.3 billion, around 3.5% of the total market.
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