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I want to know about Millenials in Australia. Here is what I have found: 18–34 year olds. 29% of the Australian demographic. Over 40% of millennials are young families. Average personal income $71k Average household income $94k I would like to know what these stats look like in: 3, 5 and 10 years from now.
Hello! Thanks for your request regarding the future projections of statistics relating to millennials in Australia. The short version is that millennials will account for 33.47%, 36.83%, and 46.78% of the total Australian population in 2020, 2022, and 2027 respectively. The personal income of millennials in 2020, 2022, and 2027 will be $94,448, $114,282, and $184,052 respectively. The household income of millennials in 2020, 2022, and 2027 will be $95,371, $96,285, and $98,570 respectively. Below is a deep dive of my research and findings.
Methodology
I started off by trying to find pre-compiled statistics for future projections of the specified statistics, however, I was not able to find such statistics directly because future projections were found only for larger statistics, such as the overall population. I then focused on estimating the future projections from the available data. I have found a number of different statistics (from the past and the most recent year) and used them to calculate statistics for the future.
I searched extensively for data regarding "Young Families" of millennials, however, the data was nowhere to be found because the statistic is very narrowly specified. Instead, I have provided an overview of the change in millennial age distribution during the next 3, 5, and 10 years.
I have calculated the statistics for the years 2020, 2022, and 2027 (i.e. 3, 5, and 10 years from now).
Estimation of Future Millennial Population
The millennial population in Australia is expected to grow at a swift pace and account for 54% of the total Australian population in 2030.
Using these two statistics, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of millennial population growth can be calculated as follows:
CAGR = [{(54/29)^(1/13)} - 1] x 100 = 4.9%.
Using the calculated CAGR, the projected millennial population for the years 2020, 2022, and 2027 can be calculated as follows:
Millennial population in 2018 = 29 x 1.049 = 30.42%.
Millennial population in 2019 = 30.42 x 1.049 = 31.91%.
Millennial population in 2020 = 31.91 x 1.049 = 33.47%.
The calculation can be similarly performed for the rest of the years to get:
Millennial population in 2022 = 36.83%.
Millennial population in 2027 = 46.78%.
Hence, millennial populations will rise to 33.47%, 36.83%, and 46.78% after 3, 5, and 10 years respectively.
Estimation of Millennial Age Distribution
I searched extensively for data regarding "Young Families" of millennials, however, the data was nowhere to be found because the statistic is very narrowly specified. Instead, I have provided an estimation of the change in millennial age distribution during the next 3, 5, and 10 years using data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics below.
Estimated annual change in millennial population (ages 20-24) during 2006-2016 = 0.44%.
Estimated annual change in millennial population (ages 25-29) during 2006-2016 = 0.69%.
Estimated annual change in millennial population (ages 30-34) during 2006-2016 = 0.33%.
The percentages of these age groups of the total Australian population can be calculated as follows:
Percentage of millennials ages (20-24) of the total Australian population in the next 3, 5, and 10 years will be 8.32% (7+3*0.44), 9.2% (7+5*0.44), and 11.4% (7+10*0.44) respectively.
Percentage of millennials ages (25-29) of the total Australian population in the next 3, 5, and 10 years will be 9.47% (7.4+0.69*3), 10.85% (7.4+0.69*5), and 14.3% (7.4+0.69*10) respectively.
Percentage of millennials ages (30-34) of the total Australian population in the next 3, 5, and 10 years will be 8.39% (7.4+0.33*3), 9.05% (7.4+5*0.33), and 10.7% (7.4+10*0.33) respectively.
Estimation of Millennial Incomes
Because of the unavailability of relevant data, the growth rate for personal income of millennials was calculated from the change in household income of millennials (ages 15-34) during 2011-2017.
CAGR = [{(71000/40055)^(1/6)} - 1] x 100 = 10%.
Using this CAGR, the personal income of millennials in 2020, 2022, and 2027 will be $94,448, $114,282, and $184,052 respectively.
Because of the unavailability of relevant data, the growth rate for household income of millennials was calculated from the change in household income of millennials (ages 15-34) during 2003-2010. The change in household income of millennials (ages 15-34) during 2003-2010 was estimated to be $3200. Therefore, the annual change would be 3200/7 = $457.
Using this change, the household incomes for millennials (ages 18-34) for the next 3, 5, and 10 years, i.e. 2020, 2022, and 2027, were calculated as follows:
Millennial household income in 2020 = 94000 + 3(457) = $95,371.
Millennial household income in 2022 = 94000 + 5(457) = $96,285.
Millennial household income in 2027 = 94000 + 10(457) = $98,570.
The household income of millennials in 2020, 2022, and 2027 will be $95,371, $96,285, and $98,570 respectively.
Summary
To wrap it up, millennials will account for 33.47%, 36.83%, and 46.78% of the total Australian population in 2020, 2022, and 2027 respectively. The personal income of millennials in 2020, 2022, and 2027 will be $94,448, $114,282, and $184,052 respectively. The household income of millennials in 2020, 2022, and 2027 will be $95,371, $96,285, and $98,570 respectively.
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