Vehicle Lifespan

Part
01
of four
Part
01

Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEV) - Lifespan

Data or metrics to calculate the average life span of a fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) from first registration until being permanently scrapped or de-registered is not available in the public domain. The majority of press coverage and research surrounds the life span of a fuel cell stack in an FCEV rather than the whole car, as well as the life cycle costs of using this type of electric vehicle.

HELPFUL INSIGHTS

  • According to the California Fuel Cell Partnership (CAFCP), a fuel cell stack in an FCEV is designed to have a lifespan of about 150,000–200,000 miles before it is permanently scrapped.
  • The fact that Toyota offers an 8-year warranty/100,000-mile FCEV warranty on key fuel cell vehicle components for Toyota Mirai means that the company believes its average life span goes beyond the 8-year mark.
  • Research indicates that the average life cycle cost of operating a fuel cell electric vehicle was about $0.42/mile in 2017, and is expected to fall to 0.33/mile in 2020, $0.19/mile in 2035, and $0.18/mile by 2050.
  • Researchers, Anna Creti, Alena Kotelnikova, Guy Meunier, and Jean-Pierre Ponssard, estimate that hydrogen refueling stations for fueling FCEV's "have 10 years lifetime up to 2020 included, and 15 years lifetime afterward."
  • According to Statista Research Department, about 16,744 fuel cell vehicle units were sold globally in 2018.

RESEARCH STRATEGY

The research team searched through credible media sites and market research databases such as the Global Market Insights, Allied Market Research, Market Watch, PR Newswire, and more for data on the average life span of a fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV). These databases present statistics, including the market size of FCEV's, their segmentation by distance (long/short), key players in the market, and more, but because they are paywalled, efforts to explore them in detail was futile. Also, the majority of press coverage surrounds the life span of a fuel cell stack in an FCEV rather than the whole car, as well as the life cycle costs of using this type of electric vehicle.

The "average vehicle age (lifetime)" is a useful indicator of the status of a fleet. Therefore, the team searched for the formula that is used to determine it and then purposed to utilize the statistic as a benchmark for calculating the average lifetime of an FCEV. According to the Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility (PPIAF), the sum of the ages of all vehicles in a fleet (preferably in months) is divided by the number of vehicles in that fleet (and the result expressed in years) to estimate the average life span.

Average vehicle lifetime (expressed in years) = the sum of the ages of all vehicles in a fleet (preferably in months) / the number of vehicles in that fleet

The team searched for a list of FCEV models, such as the Hyundai ix35 FCEV, Mercedes-Benz F-Cell, Toyota Mirai, etc., produced by EV manufacturers. We aimed to find the different ages of ten FCEV models (forming a fleet) and divide by the number of vehicles in that fleet (in this case,10). However, locating the lifespan of these models proved difficult because the automakers do not discuss the average lifetime of the whole car, as they do with their fuel cell stacks. For example, Toyota offers an 8-year warranty/100,000-mile "FCEV warranty on key fuel cell vehicle components," including: fuel cell air compressor, fuel cell boost converter, fuel cell ECU, fuel cell hydrogen tanks, fuel cell power control unit (PCU), fuel cell stack, and more, but does not state the car's average age in years. The other reason why determining this statistic is difficult is because "an acceptable average age depends on factors such as the types of vehicles operated, levels of utilization and operating conditions, and is sometimes influenced by legislation."

As a last resort, we employed the following approach to determine the average life span that a fuel cell electric vehicle remains on the road from first registration until being permanently scrapped. This approach included finding how long conventional vehicles are kept on the road, in average times (years), by their owners before they are brought to a scrap yard or taken out of service and equating it to the miles covered at scrappage. Next, using the miles covered at the point an FCEV is permanently scrapped, we would calculate the average lifespan in years.

Average FCEV lifetime (expressed in years) = (The average age of a typical passenger car * the miles covered at the point an FCEV is scrapped)/ the miles covered by a typical passenger car at the point it is scrapped

After thoroughly searching through industry-related databases, media publications, and academic sources, we located the average age of a car at scrappage in 2015, the most recent year available, but we hit a dead end with this approach when we could not find an article discussing the miles covered by a conventional car or an FCEV at the time its put out of service.
Part
02
of four
Part
02

Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV) - Lifespan

Data or metrics to calculate the average life span of a hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) from first registration until being permanently scrapped or de-registered is not available in the public domain. The majority of press coverage and research surrounds the life span of a hybrid electric battery rather than the whole car.

HELPFUL FINDINGS

  • Original equipment manufacturers of hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) guarantee the vehicles' battery for 8-years.
  • Plastics Industry estimates that about 27 million cars are permanently scrapped each year around the world — "some are the average 11-year old vehicles driven until their last-mile while others are current year models involved in crashes."
  • There are rare cases where the battery-replacement cost of a hybrid electric vehicle is expensive and costs more than the value of the car, thereby most likely resulting in scrapping the car.
  • According to Statista Research Department, cars in the US are predicted to scrap at a rate of about 6.9% in 2019. This would be due to accidents, damage, and failure.
  • According to Market Research Reports, "HEVs account for 2% of global light-duty vehicle sales and are expected to grow to almost 4% by 2020."

RESEARCH STRATEGY

The research team searched through credible media sites and market research databases such as the Mordor Intelligence, Freedonia Group, Market Watch, Market Research Reports, PR Newswire, and more for data on the average life span of a hybrid electric vehicle (HEV). These databases present statistics, including the market size of HEVs, units sold, different segmentation, the strategic position of major OEMs in the market, and more, but because they are paywalled, efforts to explore them in detail was futile. Also, the majority of press coverage surrounds the life span of a hybrid electric battery rather than the whole car.

The "average vehicle age (lifetime)" is a useful indicator of the status of a fleet. Therefore, the team searched for the formula that is used to determine it and then purposed to utilize the statistic as a benchmark for calculating the average lifetime of an HEV. According to the Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility (PPIAF), the sum of the ages of all vehicles in a fleet (preferably in months) is divided by the number of vehicles in that fleet (and the result expressed in years) to estimate the average life span.

Average vehicle lifetime (expressed in years) = the sum of the ages of all vehicles in a fleet (preferably in months) / the number of vehicles in that fleet

The team searched for a list of HEVs, such as the Toyota Prius Prime, BMW 330e iPerformance, Mercedes-Benz C350e, Chevrolet Volt, etc., produced by OEMs. We aimed to find the different ages of ten HEV models (forming a fleet) and divide by the number of vehicles in that fleet (in this case,10). However, locating the lifespan of these models proved difficult because the automakers do not discuss the average lifetime of the whole car, as they do with their batteries. For example, Toyota states that the battery for its hybrid electric car model, Prius Prime, has an eight-year lifespan. The other reason why determining this statistic is difficult is because "an acceptable average age depends on factors such as the types of vehicles operated, levels of utilization and operating conditions, and is sometimes influenced by legislation."

As a last resort, we employed the following approach to determine the average life span that a hybrid electric vehicle will last on the road from first registration until being permanently scrapped. This approach included finding how long conventional vehicles are kept on the road, in average times (years), by their owners before they are brought to a scrap yard or taken out of service and equating it to the miles covered at scrappage. Next, using the miles covered at the point an HEV is permanently scrapped, we would calculate the average lifespan in years.

Average HEV lifetime (expressed in years) = (The average age of a typical passenger car * the miles covered at the point an HEV is scrapped)/ the miles covered by a typical passenger car at the point it is scrapped

After thoroughly searching through industry-related databases, media publications, and academic sources, we located the average age of a car at scrappage in 2015, the most recent year available, but we hit a dead end with this approach when we could not find an article discussing the miles covered by a conventional car or an HEV at the time its permanently scrapped. Therefore, we summarized our findings and provided helpful insights into the topic.
Part
03
of four
Part
03

Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) - Lifespan

Data or metrics to calculate the average life span of a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) from first registration until being permanently scrapped or de-registered is not available in the public domain. The majority of press coverage and research surrounds the life span of a plug-in hybrid electric battery in a PHEV, as well as the average miles covered before recharge.

HELPFUL FINDINGS

  • Ford CMax Energi, Honda Accord, and Chevrolet Volt are plug-in hybrid electric vehicles whose EV batteries last around 12-years, 11 years, and 12- years, respectively — afterward, battery replacement should be done.
  • A typical plug-in hybrid vehicle can drive for 10-15 miles using only electricity, and then switch to gasoline to drive for about 300 miles before they need to be recharged.
  • PHEV manufacturers offer their customers an 8-year warranty/160,000 km (nearly 100 miles) warranty on a plug-in hybrid electric battery.
  • The average age of a typical car at scrappage is about 13.9 years, but Jill Trotta, a longtime mechanic, and VP for RepairPal Inc., explains that a hybrid vehicle last longer due to perfected technology that has led to improved efficiency and fewer moving parts in the engine, which reduces "breakdowns, resulting in less maintenance, and longer lifespans."
  • Of the two million plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) sold in 2018, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) represented about 31% of the sale.

RESEARCH STRATEGY

The research team searched through credible media sites and market research databases such as the Persistence Market Research, Market Watch, Frost and Sullivan, Bloomberg, and more for data on the average life span of a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV). These databases present statistics, including the market size of PHEVs, units sold, different segmentation, the strategic position of major OEMs in the market, and more, but because they are paywalled, efforts to explore them in detail was futile. Also, the majority of press coverage surrounds the life span of a plug-in hybrid electric battery in a PHEV rather than the whole car, as well as the average miles covered before they need to be recharged.

The "average vehicle age (lifetime)" is a useful indicator of the status of a fleet. Therefore, the team searched for the formula that is used to determine it and then purposed to utilize the statistic as a benchmark for calculating the average lifetime of a PHEV. According to the Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility (PPIAF), the sum of the ages of all vehicles in a fleet (preferably in months) is divided by the number of vehicles in that fleet (and the result expressed in years) to estimate the average life span.

Average vehicle lifetime (expressed in years) = the sum of the ages of all vehicles in a fleet (preferably in months) / the number of vehicles in that fleet

The team searched for a list of PHEVs, such as the Ford CMax Energi, Honda Accord, and Chevrolet Volt, etc., produced by OEMs. We aimed to find the different ages of ten PHEV models (forming a fleet) and divide by the number of vehicles in that fleet (in this case,10). However, locating the lifespan of these models proved difficult because the automakers do not discuss the average lifetime of the whole car, as they do with their EV batteries. For example, Ford CMax Energi, Honda Accord, and Chevrolet Volt EV batteries last for about 12-years, 11 years, and 12- years, respectively. The other reason why determining this statistic is difficult is because "an acceptable average age depends on factors such as the types of vehicles operated, levels of utilization and operating conditions, and is sometimes influenced by legislation."

As a last resort, we employed the following approach to determine the average life span that a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle will last on the road from first registration until being permanently scrapped. This approach included finding how long conventional vehicles are kept on the road, in average times (years), by their owners before they are brought to a scrap yard or taken out of service and equating it to the miles covered at scrappage. Next, using the miles covered at the point a PHEV is permanently scrapped, we would calculate the average lifespan in years.

Average PHEV lifetime (expressed in years) = (The average age of a typical passenger car * the miles covered at the point a PHEV is scrapped)/ the miles covered by a typical passenger car at the point it is scrapped

After thoroughly searching through industry-related databases, media publications, and academic sources, we located the average age of a car at scrappage in 2015, the most recent year available, but we hit a dead end with this approach when we could not find an article discussing the miles covered by a conventional car or a PHEV at the time its permanently scrapped. Therefore, we summarized our findings and provided helpful insights into the topic.
Part
04
of four
Part
04

Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) - Lifespan

Data regarding and metrics to calculate the average life span that a battery-electric vehicle (BEV) lasts on the road from first registration until being permanently scrapped or de-registered is not available in the public domain. The majority of press coverage and research surrounds the life span of EV batteries rather than the whole car, or the lifespan (in miles) of BEV's.

HELPFUL FINDINGS

  • Jill Trotta, a longtime mechanic, and VP for RepairPal Inc., which certifies repair shops, estimates that the standard lifespan for an electric car, including a battery-electric car, is 300,000 miles.
  • However, Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla, claims that their Tesla Model 3, a battery-electric car, drive unit and body are designed to last one million miles.
  • The average age of a typical car at scrappage is about 13.9 years, but it's assumed that a battery-electric vehicle will last longer due to perfected technology that has led to improved efficiency and fewer moving parts in the engine, which reduces "breakdowns, resulting in less maintenance, and longer lifespans.
  • Research indicates that battery-electric cars comprised 2.1% of electric vehicle (EV) sales (about 2 million passenger vehicles) in 2018.
  • The NREL states that EV batteries typically last around 10-15 years. However, many owners could choose to replace a failed EV battery rather than scrap the whole car.

RESEARCH STRATEGY

The research team searched through credible media sites and market research databases such as the Global Market Insights, RNR Market Research, Market Watch, Bloomberg, and Deloitte for data on the average life span of a battery-electric vehicle (BEV). These databases present statistics, including the market size of BEV's, their segmentation by distance (long/short), key players in the market, and more, but because they are paywalled, efforts to explore them in detail was futile. Also, the majority of press coverage surrounds the life span of EV batteries rather than the whole car.

The "average vehicle age (lifetime)" is a useful indicator of the status of a fleet. Therefore, the team searched for the formula that is used to determine it and then purposed to utilize the statistic as a benchmark for calculating the average lifetime of a BEV. According to the Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility (PPIAF), the sum of the ages of all vehicles in a fleet (preferably in months) is divided by the number of vehicles in that fleet (and the result expressed in years) to estimate the average life span.

Average vehicle lifetime (expressed in years) = the sum of the ages of all vehicles in a fleet (preferably in months) / the number of vehicles in that fleet

The team searched for a list of BEV models, such as the Tesla Model 3, produced by EV manufacturers like Tesla and Rivian, from the companies' official websites and press releases. We aimed to find the different ages of ten BEV models (forming a fleet) and dividing by the number of vehicles in that fleet (in this case,10). However, locating the lifespan of these models proved difficult since the manufactures seldom address the average lifetime of the whole car, as they do with their battery. For example, Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla, claims through his Twitter handle that "the Tesla Model 3 drive unit and body was designed to last one million miles," but does not say how it was stressed, or the average age in years. The other reason why determining this statistic is difficult is because "an acceptable average age depends on factors such as the types of vehicles operated, levels of utilization and operating conditions, and is sometimes influenced by legislation."

As a last resort, we employed the following approach to determine the average life span that a battery-electric vehicle remains on the road from first registration until being permanently scrapped. This approach included finding how long convectional cars are kept on the road in average times (years) by their owners before they are brought to a scrap yard or taken out of service and equating it to the miles covered at scrappage. Next, using the miles covered at the point a BEV is taken out of service; for example, 1 million miles, as claimed by Musk, in the case of Tesla Model 3, we would calculate the average lifespan in years.

Average BEV lifetime (expressed in years) = (The average age of a typical passenger car * the miles covered at the point a BEV is scrapped)/ the miles covered by a typical passenger car at the point it is scrapped

After thoroughly searching through industry-related databases, media publications, and academic sources, we located the average age of a car at scrappage in 2015, the most recent year available, but we hit a dead end with this approach when we could not find an article discussing the miles covered by a car at the time its put out of service.
Sources
Sources