US Electric Vehicle Market

Part
01
of four
Part
01

Electric Vehicle Market: Commercial Vehicles

Though we didn't find a source that expressly stated the overall market size or growth rate for the U.S. or North American commercial electric vehicle market, we were able to find market size data and growth rates for sub-sections within those markets. An explanation of the limitations we encountered in looking for data about the overall markets and how we conducted our research is provided in the Research Strategy section below. We provided every applicable insight we found during our research about the market size and growth rate for the commercial electric vehicle market in the U.S. and North America in our research findings that follow.

U.S. & North American Commercial Electric Vehicle Market

  • An April 2019 article from Vehicle Remarketing stated that electric vehicles account for "less than 1% of the" U.S. commercial vehicle fleet.
  • An October 2018 article published by Fleet Owner stated that by 2030, it's projected "that between 250,000 and 300,000 new commercial electric vehicles will be sold in the U.S."
  • The compound annual growth rate for "the U.S. electric trucks market" was projected at over 40% between 2017 and 2025.
  • In 2020, there are expected to be 800 "commercial electric light trucks" in the U.S.
  • The following are the projected number of "commercial electric light trucks" in the U.S. by year: 2,600 in year 2022; 4,400 in year 2024; 6,300 in year 2026; 8,200 in year 2028; and 10,400 in year 2030.
  • In the U.S. "[a]t the end of 2018, only 600 battery-electric and fuel cell buses, also known as zero-emission buses (ZEBs), were in operation."
  • With regard to North America, a September 2019 article said "[t]here are an estimated 70,000 and 100,000 electric commercial trucks in all of Europe and North America."
  • BloombergNEF's report titled "Electric Vehicle Outlook 2019" said that electric vehicles will account for "56% of light commercial vehicle sales in Europe, the U.S. and China within the next two decades, plus 31% of the medium commercial market."

Research Strategy

We looked thoroughly for available data about the overall market size and growth rate for the U.S. and North American commercial electric vehicle markets, but could not find data pertaining to the overall market for either region. We used four different research approaches in looking thoroughly for that data pertaining to the overall market. First, we looked through many market research reports regarding the U.S. and global commercial electric vehicle markets. We looked at global market reports because they often breakdown data by region, which for our purposes was North America. Though there were many market research reports involving that subject, the vast majority were paywalled and thus did not disclose any data. The few that were only partially paywalled either provided global-level data, without further specifying by region, or provided data about various sub-segments within the commercial electric vehicle market (which we provided above, as applicable). Those limitations within the market research reports were true for both market size and growth rate data.

Second, we tried to triangulate the market size or growth rate through the limited data provided by a few market research reports. For example, we had hoped to find either the U.S. or North America's share of the commercial electric vehicle market, which we then could have used to calculate market share based on the global market size (which was available). However, not one of the numerous sources we looked at throughout the entirety of our research provided that market share for either the U.S. or North America, which thereby negated the triangulation option.

Third, we checked the Statista database to see if there were any data reports about the U.S. or North American commercial electric vehicle market size or growth rate. There was no new data within Statista that we had not previously covered through our other findings, as most of the information was either about unrelated facets of the market or pertained to other countries.

Fourth, we conducted broad searches for any articles that might have provided this information or information that would have equipped us to triangulate the overall market size or growth rate, either for the U.S. or North America. Though we didn't find any articles that provided that information we sought about the overall market, a few did provide some relevant insights about sub-categories within the market, which were published by Fleet Owner and Quartz. Although those four research approaches didn't yield data about the overall commercial electric vehicle market size or growth rate in the U.S. or North America, they did yield relevant data about several sub-categories of that market, all of which we provided in our research findings above.
Part
02
of four
Part
02

Electric Vehicle Market: Buses

The US electric bus market size was estimated to be $445.7 million in 2018. The market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 23.9% from 2019 to 2024. These and other findings are outlined below.

Market Size and Growth

2030 Forecast


Additional Findings

Part
03
of four
Part
03

Electric Vehicle Market: Two-Wheeled Vehicles

In North America, there is a growing demand for electric two-wheeled vehicles. This demand is driven by environmental changes, tax systems and research advances. A detailed analysis of the size and growth of this market in North America is provided below.

Market Size

Market Growth Rate

  • The North American electric two-wheeler market (US and Canada) is expected to grow at a CGAR of 8% by 2023. It is projected that the CGAR for electric scooters will reach 13.1% from 2020 to 2030.
  • According to Research and Markets, this growth will be driven by tax cuts and concerns about environmental damage and pollution.
  • Other factors driving demand for electric vehicles include growing investments in electric vehicle charging systems and innovative research in better batteries.
  • In North America, the key companies supplying the two-wheeled electric vehicles include Yadea Group Holdings, AIMA Technology, Zhejiang Luyuan Electric Vehicle. Jiangsu Xinri E-Vehicle and Zero Motorcycles.

Additional Information

  • There is a positive outlook for the demand for electric scooters. For example, between 2020 and 2030 the CGAR for folding electric scooters is forecast to be 10.1%. The CGAR for lithium-ion battery scooters is estimated at 10.4% for the same period.

Research Strategy

This study used market reports from the following entities: Market Research Future, Prescient and Strategic Intelligence, Research and Markets, Techsci Research, McKinsey and Company, Allied Market Research, The Express Wire and Research Reports World. Data and reports for the US on two-wheeled electric vehicles was not publicly available. Subsequently, we had to extend the scope of the research to North America. North America covers the US and Canada in this study. In addition to market research reports, we examined the financial outlook of the key companies manufacturing electric two-wheeled vehicles. We considered financial statements, press releases and annual reports. It was found that the growth of this niche was accompanied by rising competition among the manufacturers. These companies are manufacturing a variety of electric scooters based on the following niches: folding ability, battery types, self standing ability and voltage. In addition, we obtained information from Environmental Research Letters (academic journal). Overall, there is a promising future for the electric two-wheeled vehicles.


Part
04
of four
Part
04

Electric Vehicle Market: Commercial Vehicle Breakdown

In 2019, there were 100,000 commercial EV trucks operational in North America. As the market size of the commercial EV industry by vehicle type was not available in the public domain, potentially useful information on the industry has been provided in this report.

Commercial Vehicle Sales

  • There were a total of 100,000 electric commercial trucks in North America in 2019; most of these commercial vehicles were "smaller light commercial vans".
  • Globally, "light-commercial EVs reached 250,000 units" in 2018.
  • Electric vehicles account for less than 1% of all commercial vehicles in the United States.
  • The US commercial EV market is projected to grow at a double-digit rate in the 2018-2023 period. Since trucks consume greater power and need batteries that can support such energy requirements, the electrification of commercial vehicles has been slow. However, with improvements in battery technology, there is an increasing demand for EV trucks.
  • According to a Markets and Markets report, the global commercial EV demand is expected to be 261,000 units in 2020. On the basis of graphical reference, North America's share in total sales will be minuscule.

Manufacturer Sales

  • Amazon announced in September 2019 that it has purchased 100,000 delivery trucks from Rivian, a US-based electric vehicle manufacturer; Rivian will only start delivering electric trucks in Q4 2020. Rivian forecasts to reach 50,000 in annual sales by 2025.
  • In January 2020, BYD announced that it has "delivered its 100th battery-electric truck in the United States". BYD only made class 6 trucks and class 8 trailer trucks in the US as of June 2019.
  • In December 2017, Tesla sold "125 pre-ordered trucks to United Parcel Service Inc" and 40 pre-ordered heavy-duty semi-trucks to Anheuser-Busch; the trucks would only be made available in 2019 or later.

Medium-Duty EV Truck Models in the US (as of June 2019)

Class 4

In Production: Mitsubishi FUSO eCanter, Tevva eTruck
Announcements: Volkswagen e-Delivery, Dongfeng Special Vehicle

Class 5

In Production: N/A
Announcements: Freightliner eM2 106

Class 6

In Production: emoss EMS 10 Series, BYD Class 6 Truck
Announcements: Thor MDV, Peterbilt e220

Heavy-Duty EV Truck Models in the US (as of June 2019)

Class 7

In Production: Mercedes-Benz eActros, emoss EMS 12 Series, Volvo FL Electric, Cummins AEOS, MAN eTGM
Announcements: N/A

Class 8 straight truck

In Production: emoss EMS 16 Series, emoss EMS 18 Series, Eforce EV26, Hyundai XCient
Announcements: Volvo VNR, Lion Lion8

Class 8 trailer truck

In Production: BYD Day Cab, Eforce EF18 SZM, Thor ET-One
Announcements: Freightliner eCascadia, Kenworth T680, Toyota Beta, Tesla Semi, and Nikola Two

Research Strategy

We looked through research reports and industry portals for the breakdown of the commercial electric vehicles market size by vehicle type; however, we did not find any publicly available statistics pertaining to the same as most research reports were behind paywalls. Industry presentations we found did not provide relevant statistics either. Alternately, we also attempted to find the sales and market share of players within the segments of the industry (and triangulate) but did not meet with much success.
Sources
Sources

From Part 02
Quotes
  • "Navigant Research forecasts that e-buses will make up nearly one-third of all buses on the road worldwide by 2030. "
  • "The global medium- and heavy-duty bus market has been dominated by internal combustion engine vehicles. However, Navigant says, the adoption of electric buses (e-buses) will continue to rise as battery prices decline and a greater importance is placed on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and other pollutants."
  • "Globally, China will continue to be the leading market segment for overall e-bus sales; Navigant expects the country to maintain the vast majority of the market share with 74% by 2030."
  • "According to Navigant’s new report, North America and Europe will jointly make up nearly 14% of all e-bus sales by then."
Quotes
  • "New York City, which has the largest bus network in the U.S. articulated that the city's 5,700 buses will be zero-emission electric by 2040."
  • "Furthermore, Los Angeles, which has the country's second-largest bus fleet network, plans to transform all 2,300 buses to electric by 2030. "
  • "Thus, long-term economic benefits to transit agencies can be viewed as one of the major factors boosting the growth of the U.S. electric bus market. The U.S. electric bus market is currently in its nascent phase, with the presence of few key manufacturers. "
  • "Some of the major battery electric bus manufacturers in the country are Proterra Inc., BYD Motors Inc., and NFI Group Inc. Furthermore, key hybrid electric bus manufacturers in the market are GILLIG LLC and NFI Group Inc. "
  • "Some other notable players operating in the U.S. electric bus market are Blue Bird Corporation, GreenPower Motor Company Inc., COBUS Industries GmbH, ElDorado National California Inc. and Nova Bus Corporation."
Quotes
  • "The U.S. electric bus market generated revenue worth $445.7 million in 2018 and is projected to register a CAGR of 23.9% during 2019–2024. "
  • "Battery electric buses are registering faster growth in demand across the country, primarily due to the support of federal and state governments (in form of subsidies and grants) for the adoption of zero-emission buses. Furthermore, plug-in hybrids may not play any significant role in the near future in the U.S. electric bus market, mainly due to their manufacturing complexity, high cost, and tailpipe emissions. "
  • "Electric buses with length more than 40 feet are expected to remain the larger category in the market during 2019–2024. This is primarily due to the difference in fuel mileage in diesel hybrid and diesel buses, which favors hybrid technology for longer articulated buses."
  • "Electric buses that run on lithium-ion batteries are gaining popularity and witnessing considerable growth in demand in the U.S. electric bus market. Lithium-ion batteries are safer than other batteries in the market and are, therefore, more preferred for large-sized electric buses."
  • "During the forecast period, inductive charging is expected to be the fastest-growing category in the U.S. electric bus market, as it facilitates faster charging, thus reducing the range anxiety of operators. "
From Part 04
Quotes
  • "There are an estimated 70,000 and 100,000 electric commercial trucks in all of Europe and North America, reports Lutsey, mostly smaller light commercial vans such as the Nissan NV200, Renault Kangoo, StreetScooter."