US Cruise Market

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Part
01

US Cruise Market

Upon conducting an extensive search, we found one additional source of US cruise industry market size data, which we used to triangulate an approximate US market size for this industry, in revenue, of $27.53 billion (all data and calculations are provided below). In addition, we have verified and/or corrected the market share percentage data in the attached spreadsheet, and provided the approximate US revenue for each brand in the spreadsheet. Details of all changes and additions can be found below.

Spreadsheet Data Verification & Correction

  • We first verified that all figures in the spreadsheet were correct, based on the market share breakdown provided by Cruise Market Watch. All figures for individual brands were correct.
  • One item that needed correction was the function in cell C9, which was previously set to calculate the total of cells C3 through C8, when it should have been set to calculate the total of cells C10 through C18 (all Carnival-owned brands). We made this change.
  • After making this change, the total in cell C32 is 93.1%; the reason for this total not amounting to 100 is that there are several brands not included in the spreadsheet, including the following (and excluding brands with negligible market share, recorded as 0.0% in the attached table):
  • American Cruise Lines with 0.1% market share
  • Blount Small Ship Adventures with 0.1% market share
  • Celestyal Cruises with 0.8% market share
  • Cruise & Maritime Voyages with 1.0% market share
  • Crystal with 1.2% market share
  • Fred Olsen with 0.3% market share
  • Hapag Lloyd with 0.3% market share
  • Lindblad Expeditions with 0.2% market share
  • Marella Cruises with 0.7% market share
  • Paul Gaugin Cruises with 0.1% market share
  • Phoenix Reisin with 0.6% market share
  • Ponant with 0.4% market share
  • Quark Expeditions with 0.3% market share
  • Saga Cruises with 0.2% market share
  • SeaDream Yacht Club with 0.1% market share
  • Star Clippers with 0.2% market share
  • Voyages to Antiquity with 0.1% market share
  • Windstar with 0.4% market share
  • When added to the total in the spreadsheet, these figures total 100.2; the extraneous .2 is likely the result of rounding individual brand market share figures to the nearest tenth.

US Cruise Market Size

  • The estimated US market size figure in the previous report came from Cruise Market Watch's global market size figure of $45.6 billion and Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA)'s note that North America accounts for about 47% of "global direct expenditures" in this space. Further, CLIA identified the US as accounting for 91% of North America's total passenger volume. Thus, $45.6 billion*0.47*0.91=$19.5 billion.
  • While both Cruise Market Watch and CLIA are reputable industry sources, this figure may be slightly inaccurate as both global direct expenditures and total passenger volume do not necessarily equate to market size. In the case of direct expenditures, CLIA explains that this figure may include "post-cruise vacations, shore excursions, souvenirs and other retail goods" purchased by cruise passengers, similar purchases made by crew members, and goods purchased by cruise lines "in support of their cruise operations." Passenger volume may not directly equate to market size as passengers of different cruises may pay different amounts and therefore generate different amounts of revenue for the respective cruise lines. Still, it is a reasonable estimation given the relative dearth of publicly-available data on the subject.
  • After conducting an extensive search to find additional publicly-available data in this regard (explained below), we could find only one additional source of data: a Statista report providing the US cruise market size (by revenue) in 2010 and 2015, with an estimated figure for 2020. An image of this data has also been provided in a separate document, in case the report itself is not accessible. Below, we used CAGR to triangulate the approximate US cruise market size by revenue in 2018, the same year from which the Cruise Market Watch market share data is taken. No other publicly-available sources of data could be found.

Calculating brand market shares

  • For the Statista data, using a CAGR calculator with the beginning value of 15.7 billion, an ending value of 31.5 billion, and 11 total periods (every year from 2010 through 2020), the CAGR of the US cruise market was calculated at 6.53%. Thus, the estimated 2019 market size is 31.5 billion-(31.5 billion*0.0653)=29.45 billion, and the estimated 2018 market size is 29.45 billion-(29.45 billion*0.0653)=27.53 billion, according to this data.
  • To estimate the US revenue in dollars of the cruise brands provided in the attached spreadsheet, we utilized the Statista data just described, given that it provides the US market share in revenue, while the original estimate incorporated some data that may not directly equate to the market share in revenue. We simply multiplied each individual brand's market share percentage by the 2018 market size triangulated above to estimate each brand's revenue. These calculations are as follows (rounded to the nearest hundredth):
  • MSC: 27.53*0.068=$1.87 billion
  • Hurtigruten: 27.53*0.02=$0.55 billion
  • Dream: 27.53*0.022=$0.60 billion
  • Star: 27.53*0.016=$0.44 billion
  • Viking: 27.53*0.013=$0.35 billion
  • Disney: 27.53*0.022=$0.60 billion
  • Carnival Cruise Line: 27.53*0.089=$2.45 billion
  • Princess Cruises: 27.53*0.091=$2.50 billion
  • Holland America Line: 27.53*0.056=$1.54 billion
  • Seabourn: 27.53*0.012=$0.33 billion
  • Cunard: 27.53*0.018=$0.49 billion
  • AIDA Cruises: 27.53*0.046=$1.26 billion
  • Costa Cruises: 27.53*0.048=$1.32 billion
  • P&O Cruises (UK): 27.53*0.022=$0.60 billion
  • P&O Cruises (Australia): 27.53*0.012=$0.33 billion
  • Royal Caribbean International: 27.53*0.14=$3.85 billion
  • Celebrity Cruises: 27.53*0.053=$1.46 billion
  • Silversea Cruises: 27.53*0.015=$0.41 billion
  • TUI Cruises: 27.53*0.023=$0.63 billion
  • Pullmantur Cruises: 27.53*0.01=$0.28 billion
  • Azamara Club Cruises: 27.53*0.009=$0.25 billion
  • Norwegian Cruise Line: 27.53*0.084=$2.31 billion
  • Oceania Cruises: 27.53*0.023=$0.63 billion
  • Regent Seven Seas Cruises: 27.53*0.019=$0.52 billion
  • The total of these figures given in the spreadsheet is slightly lower than the estimated market size as a result of rounding to the nearest hundredth in the above calculations.

Your research team employed the following strategy:

As noted above, while the estimation of the US cruise market size provided in the previous report was reasonable given the lack of publicly-available information, it may not be entirely accurate given the specific data points used in the calculation. To find additional data regarding the US cruise market size, we conducted a search of industry sources comparable to the ones provided in the previous report. While some other reports were found (e.g a report from the Florida-Caribbean Cruise Association), none contained additional useful data in this regard (aside from the data already supplied in the previous report).

As a second approach, we conducted a search of databases that are not exclusively focused on the cruise industry; this allowed us to locate the Statista data ultimately utilized in the above calculations. We executed a third approach, an extensive press search hoping to find reports of additional data missed by the previous approaches, but no more useful findings were obtained via this method. Thus, we determined that the only publicly-available data regarding the US cruise market size is the data identified in the previous report, and the Statista data provided above. Given that the previous report's estimation relied on data that may not equate directly to revenue, we utilized the Statista data in our estimation of individual brands' revenue.
Sources
Sources