Key Takeaways

• There is a decrease in Americans that identify with a specific Protestant denomination since 2000. This downward trend also reflects the increase in non-denominational Protestant churches in the United States.
• According to the General Social Survey, the number of mainline Protestants in 1972 was 28%; in 2018, the number was 11%. 
• The decline in mainline Protestants is likely to continue; according to the Pew Research Center, the median age for nearly all mainline Protestant denominations is older than 50.

Introduction

Size Of Evangelical/Mainline Protestants

Evangelical

• 1972 — 17% 
• 2016 — 24%.
• 2018 — 22%. 

Mainline

• 1972 — 28% 
• 2016 — 10%. 
• 2018 — 11%. 

Unprecedented Declines

 

Source

 

• In 2018, the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America has lost almost 200,000 of its members and 150 churches since 2000; the remaining 1,050 churches have a total of fewer than 50 members.
• According to a Pew Research Center study in 2015, there are five million fewer mainline Protestant adults in 2014 than in 2007 despite the overall U.S. population growth in that time period.
• The United Methodist Church, which is the second-largest Protestant denomination in Minnesota, had shuttered 65 churches since 2000.
• This decline is likely to continue. Part of this decline is that elderly members of mainline Protestant churches are not being replaced by a younger cohort. According to the Pew Research Center, the median age for nearly all mainline Protestant denominations is older than 50; only 16% of mainline Protestants are between the ages 18 to 29, with a majority (36%) of mainline Protestants born a Baby Boomer (born between 1946 to 1964).

Growth of Non-Denominational Churches

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  Source
   
• According to the Universal Life Church, the number of Americans that classify their religion as non-denominational had increased from "fewer than 200,000 in 1990 to greater than 8 million by 2008."
• According to the Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion, non-denominational evangelical churches have grown in number, from 54,000 in 1998 to 84,000 in 2012; data from the Pew Research Center show a similar trend: steep declines among mainline churches while Evangelical ones are on the rise.
• Research suggests that "non-denominational congregations are among the fastest-growing churches in recent years." According to Christianity Today, there has been more than a 400% growth in Protestants who identify as non-denominational.

Trends

• Only a decade ago, 70% of Americans who consider themselves religious are part of a congregation; in 2021, that number is 60%.
• The shrinking number of Americans who say they identify with a specific Protestant denomination is due to two trends:
• Firstly, the number of Americans saying that they do not have a specific religious identity (nones) of any kind is increasing. And because the number of Mormons, Catholics and those that identify with a non-Christian religion has stayed around the same over time, this increase has generally been accompanied by an "associated decrease in the broad category of Protestants, whose numbers shrank from 57% to 47%. There are fewer Protestants of any kind in the U.S. population today, and "the pool of those who identify with a specific Protestant denomination is smaller."
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  Source
   
• Secondly, the number of Americans that identify as Christians other than Mormons/Catholics are increasingly putting themselves in a non-denominational category. As a result of these trends, "the percentage of Americans who identify with a specific Protestant denomination has dropped from 50% in 2000 to 30% in 2016."

Research Strategy