Travel in 2020

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Airline Travel Trends

2020 marks the start of a new decade and with that, the airline travel industry is expanding to meet the priorities and expectations of travelers and consumers. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimates that global airline passenger numbers could double to 8.2 billion by 2037. With the growth of technology and advanced systems, airline companies are adapting to keep up with new trends. Many of these trends are based on the rise in environmental awareness and mobile app usage.

Super Apps

  • Companies are looking into developing super apps to streamline travel apps. Consumers would be able to use one app for all services including airline and hotel booking.
  • According to travel data provider OAG, surveys have shown that 78% of consumers want an airline app that shows flight delay and cancellation data, 77% want to see estimated security wait times, and 75% want to see updates on expected flight boarding times. 59% of travelers want to use a super app that allows electronic payments via PayPal. 70% of respondents, of which 91% were millennials, said they would consider the super app for ate-side food delivery and pickup.
  • While the United States is catching up to this trend, super apps like WeChat, Grab, and LINE are seeing implemented success in Asia. LINE Travel JP was launched in Japan in 2018 and utilizes a loyalty point program for booking travel. The app also integrates a mobile wallet for other travel services.

Biometric Technology

  • Biometric technology encompasses facial recognition which has changed the travel experience in terms of terminal security checkpoints. With Orlando International Airport becoming the first US airport to commit to biometric technology in 2018, this trend has only gained more traction.
  • Biometric technology is being implemented across different airlines and terminals. British Airways rolled out biometric technology in Heathrow, Orlando, Los Angeles, and John F. Kennedy international airports, among others. Towards the end of 2019, Iberia launched a new facial recognition app at Madrid Airport for fast-track security checks.
  • While there may be concerns about the integration, security, and privacy of the technology, biometrics is expected to grow further in the airline industry. Emirates and Delta are expected to expand their use of biometrics and technology in the near future.

Voice Technology

  • Approximately 35% of US households own at least one smart speaker. By 2022, smart speakers are expected to develop into a $27 billion market.
  • According to OAG, in a survey of more than 2,000 travelers, 25% expressed interest in booking travel through Siri and Okay Google. 18% said they would be comfortable booking travel through Google Home and Amazon Echo.
  • Airlines are already using voice technology apps for check-in and flight information. EasyJet is set to launch voice-activated booking technology to book airline travel.

Second City Travel

  • Second cities are described as travel destinations that are lesser known and off the beaten path. More travelers are looking to reduce over-tourism and have a more authentic experience.
  • Data from Booking.com says that 54% of global travelers want to play a part in reducing over-tourism and 51% would swap their original destination for a lesser known but similar alternative. Airlines may cater to these travelers by recommending alternative destinations through their website or app.

Sustainability

  • Consumers and travelers are growing more concerned about the environmental impacts of travel. According to OAG, sustainability issues will affect travel choices and force airlines to be more transparent during the booking process.
  • EasyJet is expected to be the world’s first major airline to operate net-zero carbon flights across its entire network. This move surpasses pledges from other airlines such as British Airways who will start offsetting domestic flights this year and promises to be carbon neutral by 2050.
  • JetBlue announced its goals to become carbon neutral on all domestic flights by July 2020. They also announced plans to start flying with sustainable aviation fuel in mid-2020.
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Rail Travel Trends

Some current trends in rail travel include high-speed rail, green transportation and connected mobility. Also, virtual reality is another trend in rail travel.

High-Speed Rail

  • High-speed rail involves the use of technological advancements to make this mode of transport efficient.
  • Companies use software like Autodesk Civil 3D to automate workflows and make all the processes efficient for the passengers.
  • Automating cleaning and other processes help in maintaining a clean environment during travel for the passengers.
  • Service automation in trains and the quest to offer fast and efficient transport to passengers by transport companies make this a trend.

Green Transportation

  • The new and recent developments of alternative fuel for trains to the diesel trains by most transport companies make green transportation a trend in the rail travel industry.
  • Some alternatives to diesel train include liquefied natural gas, hydrogen fuel cells in trains, and battery-powered locomotives.
  • Finding alternatives to diesel trains ensures zero-emissions to the environment, cost-effective rail travel experiences, and energy-efficient trains.
  • Unife, for example, ensures minimal emissions and less noise production in their day to day activities.

Connected Mobility

  • The fact that transportation companies are developing platforms that will ensure exceptional traveling experience when using trains makes connected mobility a trend.
  • The developed platforms aim at ensuring the connectivity of customers as they travel.
  • These platforms range from those that allow customers to book their next trips while traveling to those of e-commerce that allow travelers to arrange for order pickups once they arrive at the stations.
  • Passengers can communicate with each other and access any travel information that they may need in real-time.

Virtual Reality

  • Virtual test runs help transportation companies in the production of advanced rail travel models. Running these tests leads to optimization of the development and installation processes for rail travel.
  • Virtual reality is a trend because of the increasing number of companies that embrace it to demonstrate to passengers the various processes.
  • An example of this trend in use is Bombardier Transportation, where the customers can view the developed products on high resolutions and interact with them.
  • Another example of this trend in use is when the Association for California High-Speed trains partnered with project Buccaneer to create a virtual reality project that showed them how the high-speed rail project would help them.

Research Strategy

To find information about the current trends in rail travel, the research team consulted trusted articles, reports, websites, blogs, and magazines. An aspect was considered a trend if it has a significant positive effect on rail travel. A positive effect, in this case, could include making rail travel efficient and energy and cost-effective. Based on the criteria and from these resources, high-speed rail, green transportation, connected mobility and virtual reality were identified as current trends in rail travel.
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Automotive Travel Trends

The road trip is nothing if not an American institution: More than half of U.S. residents traveled by car for pleasure in the summer of 2018, with a sizable swath more planning to do so this past summer. An affinity for car travel isn't unique to Americans, however; the automobile is far and away Europeans' favorite way to travel long distance as well, for example.

second-city travel

  • Recognizing the environmental toll that big crowds take on vacation hot spots, travelers are choosing to reduce impact and travel to locations that might be a bit more off the beaten path, which traveling by car makes possible. Traveling by car also allows them to arrive at these locations at a more relaxed pace.
  • As Geoff Whitmore notes in Forbes, "Rather than taking a plane to the most talked-about destination on the planet, trendy travelers are specifically looking for destinations that don’t get their fair share of attention, and then taking the slow way to get there — such as auto."
  • The Evening Standard highlights Nashville, Tennessee as a top "second city" and suggests tourists bypass New York in favor of a visit to this Southern gem. For Americans, this makes Nashville an ideal destination to access via car, since according to the city's Chamber of Commerce, more than half the nation's population lives within a five-hour drive of the city.
  • For continental car travelers, perfect "second cities" include highlighted by The Points Guy include Belfast and Marseille.

more frequent, quicker vacations

  • With limited time and limited cash, leisure travelers are choosing more frequent, shorter getaways — the type facilitated by automobile travel — as opposed to longer vacations taken more sporadically. As Whitmore says, "Rather than get away once per year, for 10 days or two weeks, more travelers are getting away for two or three days at a time and taking more frequent trips as a result."
  • One trend in this category is "hometown holidays," literally taking shorter vacations in rental properties or hotels in their own hometown — obviously an ideal driving destination.
  • Microcations are another segment of this category. The time constraint of the microcation — defined as a leisure trip with a duration fewer than five nights — means it's tailor-made for car travel.

emphasis on traveling with pets

  • Every current study on travel trends shows that now more than ever, vacationers all over the world are choosing to bring their pets along, a choice for which automotive travel is ideally suited. In fact, 54.6% of people surveyed by pet travel company GoPetFriendly said that that their pet rides in the car with them more than six times a month, and more than 50% planned to travel with their pet within the next 12 months.
  • Additionally, a recent story on Frommers.com quoted the National Pet Owners Survey, which showed that "68% of American households own a pet, and of those, 37% plan to travel with it."
  • GoPetFriendly.com provided customized regional itineraries across America in its guide The Ultimate Pet-Friendly American Road Trip. With nine different travel plans geared to different regions across the U.S., travelers can choose an area of the country to explore and be rewarded with plans for five-to-eight pet-friendly stops ideal for access via automobile.
  • This RoughGuides post showcases how easy it is to travel by automobile with animals within the EU. Given the above-referenced statistics on popularity of travel with pets.
  • This roundup of pet-friendly European vacations lists several pet-friendly trips that are ideally-suited for car travel, including travel throughout Ireland, Switzerland, The Netherlands, and Italy.
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Cruise Travel Trends

Cruise travel remains a popular vacation option for travelers across the globe. Several trends are evident in 2020 that keep cruise travel relevant and innovative. Five of these trends include incorporating longer stays at private islands and beaches, expanding theme and special-interest cruises, embracing modern dining options, expedition cruises, and modifications to avoid overtourism.

Longer Stays at Private Islands/Beaches

  • The year 2020 is seeing a rise in cruises lengthening stays at islands and beaches, incorporating more attractions and entertainment at each stop. This is a trend as cruise lines are offering these longer stays in current voyages and advertising more options for the future.
  • Royal Caribbean recently began offering the "Perfect Day at CocoCay" experience. This involves an extended cruise stop at CocoCay in the Bahamas. The stop includes attractions such as North America's tallest waterslide, riding in a helium balloon, and riding in a floating cabana.
  • Royal Caribbean is planning additional "perfect day" experiences for cruisers, such as a cultural immersion experience at Lelepa in 2022.
  • The first "Royal Beach Club" experience is scheduled to open in Antigua in 2021 with Royal Caribbean cruise lines. This extended cruise stop is predicted to benefit not only cruise travelers, but also add jobs and revenue to the area of Antigua.
  • Virgin Voyages cruise line is unveiling the Bimini Beach Club during 2020. This extended stop will advertise "barefoot luxury" including swimming, relaxation on the beach, and champagne.
  • MSC cruises opened a marine reserve at Ocean Cay in December 2019. The reserve is in the Bahamas, with 8 beaches and 64 square miles of protected ocean for travelers to explore during the extended cruise stop

Theme and Special-Interest Cruises

  • While themed cruises are not brand-new, cruise lines are demonstrating a trend of expanding the themes offered and developing more special-interest cruise options to appeal to current and future cruisers.
  • Cruises catering to diverse needs, such as Autism on the Seas, began in more than 5 years ago and continue to gain popularity. This special-interest cruise allows families of persons with autism and similar disabilities to enjoy a cruise experience.
  • Sixthmann cruise lines will begin offering Broadway Cruises in October 2020. This themed cruise option appeals to fans of Broadway, advertising the glamour and fanfare of a Broadway experience throughout the 4 night cruise from New York City to Bermuda.
  • Vacaya cruises opened as an example of special interest cruise lines in 2018. Their cruises cater to the LGBTQ population, ensuring a positive experience and capitalizing on interests and needs of this population.

Modern Dining Options

Expedition Cruises

  • Expedition cruises are gaining popularity with adventure-seeking cruisers. This is a current trend due to multiple cruise lines making modifications and expanding offerings to offer expedition cruises in 2020 and beyond.
  • Cruise lines offering expedition cruises are adding new features to the ships to allow more adventure. These features include Zodiac hangars, ice-strengthened hulls, mudrooms, and hybrid-battery propulsion technology.
  • Viking cruise lines advertise upcoming expedition cruise paths in 2022 to remote locations such as Antarctica and the Artic.
  • Additional expedition cruise ships and voyages are coming in various areas of the globe from 2020-2022. These ships are being built by cruise lines such as Oceanwide, Hapag-Lloyd, and Lindblad.

Avoiding Overtourism

  • Overtourism, consisting of multiple tourists overcrowding popular ports, has been an increasing concern for cruise lines. Cruise lines are beginning to get creative to avoid this concern while offering the vacation destinations desired by their travelers, making this a trend in 2020 and beyond.
  • Royal Caribbean recently began offering cruises to Icy Point Strait in Alaska, inviting adventurers to immerse themselves in native Alaskan culture and explore terrain and zip lines. This destination avoids using overcrowded ports in Alaska.
  • Some cruise lines have begun using Tarragona, Spain as alternative port for Barcelona. This port allows 2 ships to dock simultaneously, with a shuttle to take travelers into town.
  • Cruise Line International Association (CLIA) agreed to a plan to spread out cruise ship docking throughout week rather than hundreds of tourists at once in Dubrovnik, Croatia.
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Impact of Geopolitics on Travel - Africa

Geopolitical events impacting travel/tourism to Africa in 2020

Research methodology

There doesn't seem to be too many geopolitical events lined up for 2020 that impact tourism, so we have identified factors that seem to most likely impact travel, even if they are not strictly geopolitical.
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Impact of Geopolitics on Travel - Asia

The major geopolitical events which are expected to affect travel and tourism to Asia in 2020 are North Korea's nuclear threats and the escalating conflict between India and Pakistan. A detailed description of these factors is provided below.

1. Nuclear Threats of North Korea

  • In 2018, North Korea threatened to launch a nuclear missile strike against Guam. This resulted in a decline of over 40, 000 tourists traveling to Guam compared to year 2017.
  • The country of Guam welcomes 1.56 million tourists from South Korea and Japan.
  • In 2017, as the North Korea threat increased, only 34, 489 Japanese visitors went to Guam compared to 55,636 in 2016. The nuclear threats also affected tourist arrivals from Taiwan, China and the Philippines.
  • The nuclear threats by North Korea have affected travel and tourism in Asia because since 2018, major airlines halted their business operations surrounding vulnerable areas such as Japan.
  • Delta Air Lines publicly stated that it would be terminating services between Japan, Guam and Narita in 2018.
  • In 2019, North Korea and the United States (US) were negotiating denuclearisation of North Korea, however this has not been a success.
  • The North Korean leader Kim Jong-un accused the US of unnecessary delays in negotiations.
  • While North Korea promised to stop testing nuclear weapons, there is evidence showing that nuclear activity never stopped. This indicates that the country is reprocessing radioactive waste into other weapons.
  • Additionally, Mr Jong-un stated that North Korea will continue testing nuclear weapons. In December 2019, the world was alarmed when Kim Jong-un threatened the US with a "Christmas gift".
  • The nuclear threats have affected tourism by increasing aviation risks and uncertainty. In December 2019, security experts said a long-range or nuclear missile launch should be expected from North Korea. In 2018, Britain, France, Germany and the United States advised their commercial airliners not to travel to North Korea. It is expected there will be less tourist arrivals to Asia as North Korea's threats continue to grow.

2. The Indo-Pakistani War

  • The ongoing fight over Kashmir between India and Pakistan is a major threat to Asian tourism. This is because India and Pakistan have engaged airstrikes against each other for the first time in 2020.
  • While these countries have previously had territorial disagreements, airstrikes were not used at that time.
  • The Indian nation holds Pakistan responsible for the suicide bombing in Kashmir. Pakistan retaliated by ceasing trade with India and expelling the Indian high commissioner.
  • In a survey conducted by Pulse Consultant, 95% of respondents viewed India as Pakistan's worst enemy.
  • The president of the Pakistan-controlled Kashmir warned of the possibility of war. Both countries possess nuclear weapons which increases the devastating prospects of war.
  • Tensions between India and Pakistan are dangerous as they employ a variety of advanced air-to-air missiles and surface-to-air missile systems. The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) states that these military weapons can strike a civilian aircraft.
  • Furthermore, the FAA warned airlines to exercise caution in Pakistan due to extremist activity.
  • The conflict between India and Pakistan has affected tourism and travel in Asia adversely. Firstly, major airlines such as Finnair, British Airways, Aeroflot, and Air India were obliged to reroute their flights. International flights to Pakistan were canceled, leaving 5, 000 passengers stranded in Thailand. It is anticipated that as tensions grow between the two countries, more international flights to Asia will be canceled.

Research Strategy

To determine the geopolitical events which are expected to impact traveling to Asia, we examined the current and previous events in Asia that had the greatest impact on tourism. We found that the two most prominent factors likely to affect travel to Asian countries are nuclear threats by North Korea and conflicts involving India and Pakistan. The North Korea threat is unpredictable and individuals are cautious about missiles striking their aircraft. In addition, the Indo-Pakistani conflict is expected to impact tourism negatively in Asia. Commercial airlines are more likely to cancel flights to Asia as risks continue to rise in both cases.
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Impact of Geopolitics on Travel - Central America

In 2020, travel and tourism to the Central America and Caribbean region will most likely be impacted by global geopolitical events such as Brexit and the recent coronavirus outbreak.

Brexit

  • Brexit refers to the United Kingdom's upcoming departure from the European Union, a political and economic trading group of countries. In June 2016, a public vote was taken and 52% of UK voters opted to leave the union. While the UK formally left the EU on 31 January 2020, a transition period of eleven months is ongoing to negotiate a new trade agreement between the UK and the remaining European Union countries.
  • Over the past three years since the public vote took place the UK's currency, the pound sterling, has been unstable in world markets due to the uncertainty of what future trade deals would look like. In December 2019, the value of the pound was 10% lower than what it was prior to the 2016 referendum. However, with the finalization of the Brexit occurring in 2020, the market value of the UK currency should begin to stabilize.
  • The fluctuations in the value of the pound in recent years led to a decline in the number of UK visitors to the Caribbean region in particular over the last few years. For example, Antigua and Barbuda recorded a decline in the percentage of total tourists who were from the UK from 28.59% in 2017 to 26.52% in 2018. However, the potential growth and stabilization of the pound should lead to an increase in the number of UK travelers, especially in the British Caribbean, compared to the last few years.

Coronavirus Outbreak

  • A new coronavirus, officially called COVID-19 by the World Health Organization, was first reported in China on December 31, 2019. Since then, there have been over 74,000 confirmed cases worldwide and over 2,000 reported deaths. Coronaviruses cause a wide range of illnesses ranging from the common cold to more severe respiratory diseases such as the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS).
  • After the outbreak, Royal Caribbean, a major cruise ship company that visits the region, announced a ban "until further notice" on passengers holding passports from China. Furthermore, many countries in the region have implemented travel bans related to the latest coronavirus outbreak including St. Lucia, Trinidad and Tobago, Jamaica and Nicaragua, among others.
  • While it is still too early to tell the long-term effects of the outbreak on travel and tourism in the region for 2020, it is likely to have some sort of negative impact on the worldwide travel industry including to the Caribbean and Central American region. Past disease outbreaks such as the Ebola virus led to reduced travel bookings until it was certain that the outbreak was contained.
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Impact of Geopolitics on Travel - Eastern Europe

After extensive research, we were unable to identify two geopolitical events that are expected to impact travel and tourism in Eastern Europe in 2020, specifically. While we found Brexit and US-China Trade War as two geopolitical events that are expected to impact global travel and tourism in 2020, we were unable to quantify their impact with supporting hard data.

Brexit

  • Brexit, a portmanteau of British and exit, refers to the United Kingdom's withdrawal of membership from the European Union. The British people voted for Brexit through a referendum in 2016, which was then finalized on 31 January 2020.
  • British global travel group Thomas Cook considers the confusion Brexit has brought upon the market as one of the reasons for its collapse in 2019.
  • Ryanair, Europe's biggest budget airline, claims Brexit slowed down its expansion.
  • Travel magazine Conde Nast Traveller foresees Brexit's impact on travel and tourism will spread through Eastern Europe, particularly Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, and Bulgaria.

US-China Trade War

  • The US-China Trade War is an ongoing trade battle between the US and China that started in 2018. The trade battle mainly involves imposing higher trade tariffs on each other's goods.
  • According to the 2020 Global Travel Forecast of Carlson Wagonlit Travel (CWT) and the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA), the ongoing trade war is one of the contributing factors to global travel and tourism's expected slowdown in 2020, along with "Brexit, oil supply, and predictions of recession."
  • The UNWTO foresees tourism in the Eastern Europe region to continue growing, consistent with its reported forecast in Tourism Towards 2030. The ETC also forecasts a 4.1% growth of inbound visitors for the Central/Eastern Europe region in 2020. However, both reports did not cite any correlation between the region's projected growth in tourism and the US-China trade war.
  • The European Think-tank Network on China (ETNC), in its report about the US-China trade war's effects on Europe, presented the case of Romania, which was able to foster cooperation with China in education, culture, and tourism from 2017 to 2019, but have started giving in to US' requests against China. The report suggested future economic implications between Romania and China, including tourism, but the report neither specified nor quantified the impact.

Research Strategy

To identify geopolitical events expected to impact travel and tourism in Eastern Europe in 2020, our strategy was to look for hard data and statistics-supported forecasts from the leading organizations in travel and tourism, such as the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) and the European Travel Commission (ETC). While both organizations provided comprehensive reports for their forecasts, including segment data for Eastern Europe, none of the reports identified any geopolitical event expected to impact travel and tourism in the region in 2020. We also checked the World Economic Forum's Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 2019 for insights. The report briefly examined the impact of infectious disease outbreaks on travel and tourism, but no information specific to Eastern Europe was presented. Looking for more forecasts, we turned to Carlson Wagonlit Travel (CWT) and the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA)'s 2020 Global Travel Forecast. The full report can only be accessed through membership, but a news article from Greek Travel Pages presented a few important insights from the report. Specifically, Brexit and the ongoing (US-China) trade war were identified as geopolitical events expected to impact global travel and tourism. Leveraging this insight, we shifted our focus towards Brexit and the US-China trade war, assuming that global impact would also be evident in the more specific region of Eastern Europe. Unfortunately, aside from an article that briefly discussed Brexit's impact on Eastern Europe's travel and tourism, and a case study of Romania caught between the US-China trade war, we did not find any hard data that could support our assumption. Even our search through scholarly articles was not fruitful either. While we found Derek Hall's book about Brexit and tourism and his other book, "Tourism and Geopolitics: Issues and Concepts from Central and Eastern Europe," both contents were hidden behind a paywall.

There seems to be a lack of hard data-supported information about the topic available in the public domain, perhaps, because there are so many factors affecting travel and tourism that it is difficult to establish a correlation between a geopolitical event and growth or any other parameter of tourism. For example, the World Economic Forum considers 14 factors/indexes categorized into four (enabling environment, policy and enabling conditions, infrastructures, and natural & cultural resources) when ranking travel and tourism competitiveness.





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Impact of Geopolitics on Travel - European Union

The main geopolitical events affecting tourism in the European Union are the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union, the New European Green Deal, and the US-China trade war. There could be an increase in plane ticket prices as well as logistic delays. Meanwhile, the sustainability tourism market grows as environmental concerns are acknowledged. Lastly, US-China tensions could have different effects on the European tourism industry.

The Impact of Brexit in Tourism in the European Union

Brexit is the fusion of the words "Britain" and "exit" and it refers to the decision of the United Kingdom to leave the European Union. This decision was finalized on January 31, 2020, and it's expected to affect numerous industries, including the tourism industry. While 2020 will be a transition period in which details will be negotiated between the European Union and the United Kingdom, some changes are already taking place while others are on the way.
  • It is estimated that 55.9 million United Kingdom's citizens go to Europe every year, with 24.7 million Europeans heading towards the United Kingdom.
  • According to certain estimates, there might be a 5% decrease in travels from the United Kingdom to Europe in 2020. This would be caused by the fact that the pound has partially devalued, making traveling more expensive for British citizens.
  • Hotel prices in the United Kingdom might increase due to citizens of the country preferring to stay in it rather than visiting Europe. This would increase stay prices for European visitors in the United Kingdom as well as tourists from around the world. There might be more domestic competition for hotels as well as tours.
  • Another expected effect from Brexit will be longer custom lines because citizens from the United Kingdom will now have to do the line with non-European Union citizens, which considerably adds to the time spent in customs. This will be effective in 2021.
  • If the United Kingdom leaves the open sky agreement it has with European countries, fees for European airlines to enter the United Kingdom might increase. European travelers and tourists heading to the United Kingdom from Europe might have to pay more expensive tickets because of this.
  • Countries such as Portugal are already considering measures to guarantee the influx of tourists from the United Kingdom. There is a proposal to offer subsidized travel insurance to British citizens, who were previously covered by the European Health Insurance Card. Portugal welcomes approximately 2 million British tourists per year.

Impact of the New Green Deal in Tourism in the European Union

The United Nations have established a 2030 Agenda with Sustainable Development Goals. This clearly aligns with the European Green Deal, which has as one of its main objectives an ambitious vision for 2050, the year in which Europe would become the first carbon-neutral continent.
  • According to the Secretary General of the United Nations World Tourism Organization, Zurab Pololikashvilli "The tourism sector has an obligation to use its unique power to lead the response to the climate emergency and ensure responsible growth."
  • Numerous municipalities around the European continent have adhered to the Charter of Commitments for Sustainable Material Resources Management and Circular Economy proposed by Urban Waste. Urban Waste has a project funded by the European Union in which they will help develop strategies to reduce waste and increase recycling in cities with high influx of tourists.
  • This increasing concern about the environment has led to an increase in organic and sustainable tourism. This impacts both organic food consumption in tourist areas and the development of eco-friendly stays and tours. The estimated global market growth for sustainable tourism has a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of over 10% from 2019 to 2023. Europe is the overall dominant continent in this market.

US-China Trade War

The United States and China represent two of the biggest economies in the world. The continuation of the United States- China trade war could have unintended consequences for Europe, which might have contradictory results for the tourism industry.
  • The economic uncertainty could lead investors to wait on making decisions, which could affect the construction of tourism infrastructure.
  • Conversely, European investors could benefit greatly from the US-China trade war with earnings estimated at $70 billion in trade, which in turn could cause more companies to invest in tourism.
  • As of 2020, a tentative agreement has been reached between the United States and China. The next trade war could be against the European Union, which would mainly impact commerce. However, an overall impact in European economy could affect tourism as well.
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Impact of Geopolitics on Travel - Middle East

Two geopolitical events that will significantly impact travel and tourism in the Middle East in 2020 are the increased tensions in the conflict between the U.S. and Iran in the region, and the U.S. withdrawal of troops from the conflict in Syria.

Recent Events In U.S. and Iran Conflict

  • The assassination of Iran’s top general Qassem Soleimani and the subsequent retaliatory missile strikes from Iran's targeting of two U.S. bases has raised tensions throughout the middle east and has shaken up the entire region.
  • Although there is no specific threat to Bahrain, with Iran’s Military Adviser Maj. Gen. Hossein Dehghan recently stating that Iran will target U.S. military sites," and there being a large Navy base in Bahrain, travelers to the country should stay aware of the ongoing situation.
  • Recently the British Foreign Office warned travelers that as Western tourists may be targeted by Iran-sympathizers in Egypt. Currently the U.S. State Department ranks Egypt at a Level 2 (Exercise Increased Caution), and they advise any visitors to stay clear from the Western Desert and the Sinai Peninsula, unless they are flying to Sharm El Sheikh.
  • Kuwait’s relations with the U.S. could make this small nation a target to attack. The U.S. recently announced the deployment of over 3,000 troops to the region after the vow of retaliation by Iran, with many of these troops stationed in Kuwait.
  • Citing a history of terrorism in the region, travelers are advised by the New Zealand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade SafeTravel to “maintain a high level of personal security awareness, particularly in public places known to be frequented by foreigners.”
  • Although there is no known direct threats to the area, visitors to Saudi Arabia are still being advised to exercise caution. The country and Iran previously had hostility, which included an Iranian attack in September 2019, although they have recently taken steps to alleviate tensions. U.S. military bases in Saudi Arabia could be become a vulnerable target if the situation continues to change, and so travelers should be aware of the current news and situation.
  • Canada, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom, among others have all advised their travelers to these areas that there is a potential increase in risk due to the unpredictable situation. Places such as Yemen, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and Pakistan all remain on the list of places not recommended for any travel whatsoever based on the events.

The Syrian Conflict

  • The withdrawal of U.S. troops from the resource-rich area of Syria is likely to only increase the competition between the major powers involved the conflict, including Russia, Iran, and Turkey, and will also likely affect the agreement of a demilitarized zone in the city of Idlib, an agreement that has already prevented a major conflict last September.
  • This withdrawal of U.S. forces also will stimulate a more aggressive Israeli approach in Syria. Israel will have to rely on its own efforts against the influence of Iran in Syria and will aim to increase its activities on Syrian territory. Russia, however, will remain a major challenge, as the country controls Syrian airspace, with a recent incident involving Israeli jets and the downing of a Russian surveillance plane taking place in September.
  • The Astana trio of Russia, Turkey and Iran has so far failed on any agreement for the formation of a constitution committee. With the withdrawal of the U.S. from Syria, the likelihood of this agreement is now even smaller, while the entire Astana idea in itself may fail. UN-led peace negotiations running in parallel have also failed to reach fruition.
  • Despite great criticism, and the fact that travel to the area and any of its hostile parties is being warned against by the major countries of the world, the area has seen somewhat of a recent trend in new tourism, with people coming to visit the war torn area, and Russian tour operators even offering tours despite Kremlin warnings.
  • In recent years, Syria’s tourism had declined by 98%, just 2 years after the start of conflict in 2015. The Assad government’s attempt to win back tourists with its 2016 ‘Syria — Always Beautiful’ campaign, which at first seemed to fail, now seems to be having a direct influence on an increase of travelers to the area.
  • Despite the fact that most international governments advising against all travel to Syria, the nation’s deputy tourism minister Bassam Barsik announced the country had received 1.8 million visitors in 2018, an increase of 500,000 travelers from the prior year. French travel agency Clio, despite criticism from their foreign ministry, sold out its first departure to Syria, while more and more travel bloggers and writers are traveling to this region.
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Impact of Geopolitics on Travel - North America

We are entering a new phase of geopolitics on a global scale that is still being influenced by the writing and ideologies of greats like the late Sir Halford Mackinder, who is considered 'The Father of Geopolitics'. Statistics show that in spite of the increase in geopolitical risks, the number of global tourists continues to rise annually. Reference is made from risk-adjusted information on potential events that will impact travel and tourism to the 23 countries in North America as a collective.

Global Pandemic

  • As of December 2019, a viral disease called the 'Coronavirus', was reported. This airborne disease is spread through contact with other people and objects that have been touched by infected people.
  • The outbreak of the Coronavirus in China has presented a new challenge in the Tourism industry, with Chinese citizens who make up the largest group of tourists travelers to North America now restricted from leaving the country.
  • A number of airlines from North American countries and China have suspended flights to and from China due to the crisis at hand. This has been met by a reduction in bookings and an increase in cancellations, due to the risk imposed by the Coronavirus.
  • The ripple effects of this outbreak will also affect travel, tourism and hospitality companies that are operating in North America like TripAdvisor and Expedia, which have resultantly forecast a drop in revenues as a result.
  • The impact on travel to North America could be felt even further with cases being reported in countries like Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, Thailand and recently, Germany. With growing concerns, North American countries may have to tighten travel restrictions for high-risk zones, which would affect them as the percentage of the tourism market lost will also grow proportionately.

2020 USA Presidential Elections

  • Donald Trump was elected President of The United States of America in November 2016, for which he went on to be inaugurated the following month and then took office in January 2017. This appointment shook the world across mainly due to the policies he proposed to enact, with one of the major areas impacting tourism and travel to the US. These policies had an impact on the United States and the rest of North America, with the former experiencing stagnation in their tourism sector.
  • It is no secret that President Trump's policies banned and prevented travel from neighboring Mexico and Muslim-bearing countries. This has resulted in a boycott in travel by many African, Mexican, Middle-Eastern, Eastern-European and South American tourists, with the Middle East and Africa reporting the highest declines in travel to the US. Asian tourists were still traveling to the US and other North American countries until the outbreak of the Coronavirus, which has led to the decline in travelers from there.
  • The imposition of these travel bans and rules has led to movement around the North American continent with countries like Canada experiencing more tourism, as travelers increasingly-opted for other countries in North America. As tourism provides a lot of employment for citizens from these countries, traveling was opportunistically made easier for tourists in order to boost their economies.
  • The re-appointment of Donald Trump would lead to further changes to the tourism dynamic on the North American continent. There is little to no hope that his re-election will lead to improved tourism and employment statistics within the tourism sector in the US. For other countries in North America, this will present an opportunity that can be harnessed. The skepticism is solidified by Trump's new rule to reduce and eventually, stop birth tourism in the US. This would effectively lead to tourists choosing countries within the region that present better opportunities for citizenship in such cases.
  • According to the World Trade Organization, tourism in North America has risen by 2% on aggregate regardless of the four-year slump in the US. The offsetting effects come from tourists choosing countries like Mexico and Canada as travel destinations. If the US does not make its travel policies more pro-travel, the slump will not cease and this will re-allocated to other countries in North America. With no confidence in President Trump enacting such changes, the only hope is that a change in leadership could present this opportunity.
  • If President Trump is re-elected, the demographics on tourism and travel in North America will highly-likely follow the trend route they are on and if he is not re-elected there is still no guarantee that this will change, and at least overnight.


Part
12
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Part
12

Impact of Geopolitics on Travel - South America

Political unrest, crime, and geological events such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions are likely to affect travel and tourism to South America in 2020. The social and political unrest in 2019 in nine of the continent's 13 countries will affect tourism in 2020, as tourists decide whether they wish to risk going to those destinations. The number of tourists could decrease, the tourists could stop going to particular locations, they could spend less money on food and lodging, and so forth, all of which would affect the local and national economies of the South American countries.

Political Unrest and Crime

  • Political upheavals and protests cannot often be predicted to happen on a particular day, and cannot be described in advance as "events" that are expected to take place. However, when they happen in 2020 they will affect travel and tourism.
  • Multiple countries experienced protests during 2019 over social and economic problems. "...[C]ountries that protested in 2019 aren't done yet", according to Business Insider. Experts forecast that Venezuela, Honduras, Ecuador, Haiti and Bolivia will have continued and even "increased protests in [2020]."
  • Governments that rule by authoritarian methods in Venezuela and Nicaragua will see protests in 2020, and Bolivia's new president may not be able to meet expectations.
  • "Chile’s dramatic and violent protests sparked a constitutional reform process that will consume the country’s politics in 2020," predicted one source. Chile may see increased social instability. There will be a referendum about the constitution in April 2020.
  • Brazil is also positioned for possible citizen protests about environmental and social issues. Amazon forest fires could keep tourists away. Crime against tourists has increased. Peru also has problems with tourists being robbed.
  • Three new administrations taking office "have the potential for early failure: Argentina, Guatemala and Panama. All three were elected [in 2019] with less than 50% of the vote and some of their support came due to voters disliking their opponents more rather than a mandate for the new president's ideology or policy platform."
  • “We are sitting on a minefield of social discontent,” one expert stated, pointing out the countries of Honduras, Nicaragua, Bolivia and Chile as other potential “danger spots”.
  • By the end of 2019, six countries "had experienced violent uprisings and State-backed repression: Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela. The protests aimed to reduce one of the main sources of conflict in the Global South: poverty derived from indiscreet inequality." The inequality has not gone away, and these countries can be expected to continue to be unstable.
  • Paraguay is struggling with Brazilian drug cartels and cocaine traffickers.
  • The U.S. State Department has issued travel advisories for Brazil, Venezuela, Columbia, Suriname, Ecuador, Brazil, Argentina, Bolivia, Chile.

Earthquakes and Volcanic Eruptions

  • South America has had 1,020 earthquakes in the past 365 days. The quakes are felt in Chile, Argentina, Peru, Colombia, and Ecuador.
  • The largest earthquake in South America this week was a 5.2 magnitude quake in Calama, Antofagasta, Chile.
  • The largest earthquake in February 2020 was a 5.5 magnitude quake in El Hoyo, Santiago del Estero, Argentina.
  • The largest earthquake so far in 2020 was an 8.0 magnitude earthquake in Lagunas, Loreto, Peru.
  • Evacuations happened in Bogotá, Columbia, and transportation systems were suspended after magnitude-6.2 earthquake struck on December 24, 2019. It was followed 15 minutes later by a magnitude-5.7 aftershock.
  • "The magnitude-6.2 is the largest crustal earthquake that has occurred in Colombia in the last 20 years...."
  • A 2018 study concluded that more than "160 million people—about one-third of the continent’s total population—live in areas with significantly elevated seismic hazard." The most seismically active areas are along the western coast of South America.
  • A strong risk of volcanic eruption is located in Ecuador.
  • One of South America's prominent volcanoes is showing early warning signals of a potential collapse. "Tungurahua volcano in Ecuador -- known locally as 'The Black Giant' -- is displaying the hallmarks of flank instability, which could result in a colossal landslide," according to research by Dr James Hickey from the Camborne School of Mines.
  • This volcano is the only one that is indicating significant danger currently.
  • Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions can cause tourists to cancel their future trips, or leave early if they are already in the region. The reduction in tourism can negatively affect local economies.
Part
13
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Part
13

Impact of Geopolitics on Travel - Oceania

Three major geopolitical trends and events were identified as being expected to have an impact on tourism to the countries of Oceania in 2020: fears about the spread of coronavirus from China, the potential impact of the 2020 Olympic Games in Tokyo on inbound and outbound tourism, and low interest rates fueling increased travel thanks to increased consumption and better exchange rates, especially by US dollar holders. These various events have different effects on tourism to the region, both positive (low interest rates) and negative (coronavirus fears). As such, it is unclear whether overall tourism to the region will be positively or negatively impacted by the combination of these and other geopolitical events.

Coronavirus Response in Oceania

  • Since the Oceanic countries make up a significant travel destination for Chinese and other Asia-Pacific tourists, fears and quarantines surrounding the ongoing coronavirus (CONVID-19) epidemic, originating in the Hubei providence of China. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, China was the largest source of overseas tourists in 2019, with a total of 1.32 million visitors.
  • Political responses to coronavirus have been varied and particularly dependent on the country's geopolitical relationship with the Chinese government. Countries with more adversarial relationships with China, such as Australia, have banned travel from the country outright, as opposed to softer responses with countries close to the Chinese government, and some commentators warn of diminished Chinese soft power in the region in the wake of CORVID-19's spread.
  • Recent analysis indicates that COVID-19 could result in the loss of "hundreds of millions in [Australian] dollars," by the Australian tourism sector, due to an ongoing flight ban of Chinese visitors into Australia, which entered its fourth week on February 20.
  • While Chinese tourists represent less than 1% of total tourists to Hawaii annually, officials report feeling worry about the impact of the virus on visitors from nearby countries, such as Japan, where 15% of Hawaii's tourism originates from. A recent Japanese visitor tested positive for the virus while in Oahu, Hawaii, later spreading to his wife.
  • However, some analysts claim that COVID-19's effect on Pacific tourism will be limited, in large part due to the fact that the outbreak occurred during the off-peak travel season, and that decreases in travelers from China will be offset by increases in travelers from within Oceania, as well as the United States.

2020 Tokyo Olympics

  • Tokyo will host the 2020 Olympic Summer Games from July 24 to August 9, 2020. As is the case with any Olympic host city, this will introduce tens of thousands of tourists to Japan during the Games. In addition, the Games are expected to have an impact on tourism in surrounding countries.
  • According to local tourism operators in Hawaii, a decrease in Hawaiian tourism during the Games is expected, both from Japanese visitors staying in Japan during the Games and others choosing to visit Japan instead of Hawaii. The CEO of JTB Hawaii, the Hawaiian subsidiary of major Japanese tourism operator JTB, expected decreases of Japan-to-Hawaii tourism of 40 to 50% during summer 2020. Similar effects could be possible in other Pacific-area countries, as Japanese tourists often form a large percentage of total tourism to these countries. For example, in Australia, Japan was the 6th largest source of tourism in 2019, while in New Zealand, it was also the 6th largest source in 2019.
  • Given that within-region tourism is also common in Oceania (for example, Australia is New Zealand's largest source of tourists), it also stands to reason that an increase in tourists from Oceanic countries to Japan during the Olympics may reduce intra-Oceania tourism. For example, tourism from Australia to Japan reached new highs in 2018, with over 500,000 Australians visiting Japan, an increase of 11.6%.

Impact of Low Interest Rates Globally

  • The effect of recent inversions of the US yield curve, indicating that dollar interest rates are expected to decrease further over time, coupled with an increasing prevalence of negative or near-negative interest rates being set by central banks, points to two things: increased worry about a future global recession and loose global monetary policy that may pump up consumer spending (the intended effect) in the short-term.
  • In the near-term of 2020, this could drive global tourism higher, including in the Oceanic region, as noticed by Australian commentators in late 2019, as consumers have more money to spend and currency exchange rates become more favorable for tourists.
  • This can be seen in the one-year high (99.85 on February 20, 2020) of the US dollar strength index, indicating that in the past 12 months, the US dollar has never been stronger relative to other currencies than it is today.
Part
14
of sixteen
Part
14

Airports Enhancing the Travel Experience

Airports are implementing several technologies and concepts to help enhance air passenger experiences at different airports globally. These include technologies such as wayfinding apps, mobile boarding passes, and loyalty cards; and the use of concepts such as implementation of common-use self-service (CUSS) and common-use passenger processing systems (CUPPs), food delivery services and personalized shopping.

Wayfinding apps

  • Almost all airport terminals have a very complicated structure such that moving from terminal A to B is always an issue.
  • Having a way to move from one place to another as quickly as possible is an attractive scheme for many travelers.
  • According to destinationcrm, some technology companies such as Locuslab are making use of beacons to underpin wayfinding apps in airport terminals," offering passengers real-time information to navigate to nearby restaurants, airport facilities, and their departure gates."
  • Priority Pass’s in-app airport maps are also making use of the technology to enable travelers to access available lounges and other airport amenities, giving them access to a stress-free travel experience.
  • Airports such as Côte d’Azur Airport, Miami International Airport and Hong Kong International Airport (HKG) are also making use of this technology to enhance customer experience by offering personalized updates, directions, tips based on their location and needs at the airport.

Common use (CU) concepts

  • Airports are implementing common use (CU) concepts such as common-use self-service (CUSS) and common-use passenger processing systems (CUPPs).
  • Several airports have applied these concepts to enhance operational competence and enable travelers to have "considerable control and flexibility over certain basic functions, such as the check-in process."
  • These concepts are also increasing asset optimization and higher flexibility by decreasing process time and enabling a free-flowing terminal.

Mobile boarding passes and loyalty cards

  • Mobile boarding passes enable travelers to board using their mobile phone or smartwatch; it provides a smoother experience getting through security checkpoints in the airport.
  • Travelers can easily pass through boarding gates with a turn of the wrist. The use of mobile boarding passes and loyalty cards enables customers to "efficiently go through security check points, make purchases, collect loyalty points at their favorite shops and restaurants, and access airport amenities including passenger lounges or spas, right at their fingertips."
  • According to the Department of Homeland Security, the use of facial recognition technology is predicted to be used on 97 percent of departing travelers within the next 4 years.
  • The growth of the virtual loyalty card is also encouraging travelers to earn or redeem worthy miles and points when they make purchases at the airport.
  • Research by SITA predicated in 2017 that, NFC technology will bring about an increase in the distribution of mobile boarding passes from "between 2% and 3% in 2011 to between 50% and 80% by 2018."
  • The technology also helps reduce the volume of paper used by airlines and its very convenient.

Food delivery services

  • According to Forbes, airports are the next frontier for on-demand delivery. Some companies offering food delivery services to airports include; Grab, Airport Sherpa, At Your Gate, LoungeBuddy, and GateGuru.
  • Air passengers want services that allow them to order food, drinks or merchandise while at the airport and have them delivered directly to their departure gate.
  • Food ordering services such as Grab, a mobile app and self-service kiosk provider area letting time-pressed, "hungry travelers to pre-order their meals and pick them up from a variety of airport restaurants before heading to their departure gate."
  • Food delivery services are not just saving time but also granting passengers a convenient method of enjoying a fresh meal.

Personalized shopping

  • More air passengers are seeking distinct experiences, which is while several airports are investing "in their broader eco-system to meet consumers rising expectations for technology-filled journeys" such as personalized shopping.
  • To personalize travelers' shopping experience, airports and vendors are tapping into their customer's data. Making it more natural for passengers to get preflight emails some days before their journey that gives them discounts at airport shops and concessions.
  • The more data insight advances, travelers are more likely to receive these offers in the structure of push notifications mailed straight to their mobile devices as they pass an airport terminal.
Part
15
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Part
15

Travel Industry - SWOT

The key strengths of the global travel industry include overall healthy profits and growth, the continuous rise of international travel departures, and leisure travel as the best performing sector. Its weaknesses are the slowing down of the online sector, seasonality, and security issues. The main opportunities lie in the rise of disposable income, emerging technologies, and the purchasing power of younger generations. Trade wars, environmental disasters, and climate change are among the greatest threats.

Strengths

1. Healthy Profits and Growth

  • According to Deloitte, the travel industry is one of the most successful sectors in the world, in terms of size and growth.
  • The size of the global travel and tourism market went from $6.03 trillion in 2006 to $8.27 trillion in 2017, growing at a CAGR of 2.9%.
  • In 2018, the industry rose further, to $8.8 trillion. It accounted for 10.5% of global GDP, outpacing its growth by 3.2%.
  • Some of the main factors that contribute to the industry's healthy performance include decreasing costs of air travel, the growing number of millennial travelers, and better access to travel-related information through social networks.

2. Steady Rise of International Travel Departures

  • The major strength of the global travel industry is the continuous growth of international travel departures.
  • There was a significant rise observed in the last two decades, going from 633 million in 1995 to 1.6 billion in 2017.
  • 2019 also saw an increase in international travel departures. In the first eight months of the year, there was a 4.9% growth compared to the same period in 2018. Also, advance bookings for the remaining months surpassed the same figure from the previous year by 7.9%.
  • It is expected that international travel departures will rise by further $4 million in 2020.

3. Leisure Travel as the Strongest Segment

  • Leisure travel is the most profitable segment of the industry.
  • In 2018, leisure travel accounted for $4.6 trillion, or 78.5% of the total travel and tourism spending.
  • The segment was expected to grow by 3.8% in 2019, and with a CAGR of 3.9% until 2029.


Weaknesses

1. Slowing Down of the Online Travel Sector

  • According to Motley Fool, the disruption caused by the rise of online travel was the major force in the tourism industry. However, the market has matured, and key players are experiencing modest or even negative growth.
  • In addition, Google is trying to dominate the online booking market with its hotel meta-search offering, taking market share from top online travel agencies (OTAs), such as Trivago, Booking Holdings, or Experia.
  • Due to the above reasons and external factors, the online travel sector is becoming weaker and less predictable, with Motley Fool advising investors to avoid putting money into it.

2. Seasonality

  • Multiple sources state that seasonality is an important issue faced by travel providers.
  • Some regions, like several European countries, are more exposed to it than others. However, almost all tourist destinations have to be mindful of it.
  • For example, research by Skyscanner shows that in the winter 2018/2019, 40% of passengers went on long-haul flights from Europe. In the summer of 2019, only 31% of passengers went on such flights.
  • In the winter, there are significant drops in flights to European countries, while more people fly to destinations such as Australia, Brazil, Argentina, and New Zealand.
  • To overcome this weakness, travel providers need to come up with discounts, special offers, and off-season attractions. However, only a selected number of them manage to attract tourists year-round.

3. Security Issues

  • In 2017, the travel industry was the tenth most-exposed to cybercrime. Currently, it is the second.
  • Between January 2018 and May 2019, 566 million travel-related records were compromised or leaked in data breaches. The figure only includes the incidents that were discovered and made public.
  • Protecting their personal data is one of the three greatest concerns of online travelers. It is also an issue for hospitality professionals.
  • At the same time, many companies within the travel industry are not prepared to handle the increasingly complex issue, thus exposing themselves to bad publicity and losing customer trust. For instance, 97% of the top 100 airports in the world failed the cybersecurity test.
  • Travel services providers need to be more aware of different types of cyber risks, and be able to predict the most likely ones, depending on the circumstances. Additionally, they are forced to invest in continuously invest in cybersecurity to always stay one step ahead of the threats.


Opportunities

1. Rise in Disposable Income

  • Between 2007 and 2017, the rise in disposable income on the global level was one of the main drivers of growth in the travel and tourism market.
  • The opportunity is still relevant, with IbisWorld noting that the significant rise in per capita income in Asia and South America is enabling more people to travel overseas. (The screenshots of the report can be found here.)
  • Similarly, STR and Deloitte mention rising disposable income and growing "global consumer purchasing power" remain to be the main enablers for the growth of international tourism.
  • According to the latter, this factor is the main incentive for travel companies, including airlines and hotels, to come with more attractive offers and marketing strategies.

2. Digital Innovations

  • Amadeus, a travel technology company, believes that incorporating emerging technologies is a huge opportunity for travel companies to increase their reach and improve the customer experience.
  • In its report, the company states that "an average traveler performs nearly 50 online searches, visits 38 sites, and reads 12 reviews during 15 weeks, before they book their holiday."
  • Some of the disrupting technologies that may benefit the travel industry, if its players incorporate them quickly and make necessary organizational changes, include cloud, artificial intelligence, voice technology, internet-of-things, and hyper-connectivity.

3. Young Generations as New Consumer Groups

  • Reportlinker and Deloitte observed that the rise of millennial travelers has already contributed to the sector's revenues.
  • Their impact is likely to grow when they reach their earning peak. In Europe, their spending is already comparable with their parents'. In the US, both millennials and Generation Z take more vacation days compared to other generations and spend more per one trip.
  • Millennials account for 27% of the world's population, or two billion people.
  • Both millennials and Generation Z, two youngest generations, name traveling and seeing the world as their top aspiration, ahead of being wealthy and buying a house.
  • To tap into the opportunity and meet the young generations' expectations, travel companies need to incorporate new technologies into their services. Both millennials and Gen Zers grew up with technology and expect to use it during each stage of the experience.
  • Also, the easiest way to market to them is through social media.
  • In terms of the traveling itself, they expect unique attractions and experiences, pushing companies to come up with innovative itineraries.


Threats

1. Trade Wars

  • According to Skift, trade wars are the main threat to the travel economy in 2020.
  • The company mentions that such conflicts are escalating in many areas, which will likely significantly slow down the growth in certain regions, affecting the whole industry.
  • For instance, the impact of Trump's trade wars and is already felt in the tourism industry in different regions across the world. Iceland's foreign arrivals decreased by 15.6% last summer, with South African travel volumes also taking a hit.

2. Environmental Disasters

  • Deloitte observed that natural catastrophes, such as hurricanes, wildfires, and earthquakes, are among the major obstacles to the growth of tourism.
  • At the same time, the World Travel and Tourism Council thinks that such disasters are much more difficult to recover from than terrorist attacks, from the perspective of tourist destinations.
  • For instance, a natural disaster that paralyzes a transportation hub such as the airport in Hong Kong may lead to canceling or delaying as many as 1,000 flights, impacting the tourism on the whole continent.

3. Climate Change

  • Climate change makes it difficult for some tourist destinations to attract visitors and stay profitable. For example, ski tourism in the Alps is threatened by decreasing levels of snow.
  • Tourist regions across the world need to prepare for the possible changes, according to the specifics of their climate.
  • Also, the travel industry is repeatedly pressured by activists and scientists to reduce its environmental footprint, which forces it to come up with sustainability-related policies and initiatives.


Part
16
of sixteen
Part
16

Impact of the Coronavirus on the Travel Industry

The coronavirus has had a significant negative impact on the global travel industry. The most affected sectors within the travel industry are the airline industry, accommodation industry, food and restaurant industry, and the cruise industry.

GENERAL Overview

  • The total global travel industry revenue in 2019 was estimated at $2 trillion. Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region have the largest share at $644 billion. The industry contributes $8.8 trillion to the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 10% of global employment.
  • In 2018, it was projected that the Asia-Pacific region would experience the highest growth during the forecast period between 2019 and 2023, with a CAGR of 9%.
  • Chinese outbound travelers spent in excess of $250 billion which was more than any other nationality in 2018. However, as a result of the coronavirus outbreak, the global tourism industry is estimated to lose $80 billion and rebound after one year at the earliest.

Airline Industry

  • Analysts predict that the coronavirus could have substantial negative effects on the industry in the short-term but could be less severe in the long-term. Airlines most affected are those that operate within the region. Chinese airlines have been the most affected, following a 40% decline in demand.
  • Statistics from past outbreaks, the global airline industry will likely see a 13% decline in revenues. According to a report by the UN International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), it is estimated that global airline revenues will drop by up to $5 billion in the first quarter of 2020 due to flight cancellations.

Accommodation Industry

  • The hotel industry will grapple with the effects of the coronavirus for up to 12 months, according to Hilton's CEO. There has been a 75% drop in hotel occupancy in China over a period of two weeks.
  • Countries that see most Chinese visitors are in the Asia region and will be the most affected due to a drop in Chinese visitors. The top 10 outbound Chinese tourism destinations are Japan, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Philippines, Cambodia, Vietnam, Macau, Hong Kong, and Malaysia.
  • China's largest online booking platform reported that more than 300,000 hotels had agreed to refund bookings made earlier.

Food and Restaurant Industry

  • The sector is amongst the hardest hit, particularly in China. It is estimated that the sector faces up to 55% revenue loss as compared to the same period in 2019. International restaurant chains, including several hundred McDonalds restaurants, more than 2,100 Starbucks stores, and a third of all KFC and pizza restaurants have shut down in China.
  • In the US, restaurant businesses in Manhattan's Chinatown have experienced a 70% drop in February 2020. Similarly, London's Chinatown has reported a 50% loss of customers.

Cruise Industry

  • Shares in three of the biggest cruise operators in the world have dropped in value of between 10% and 16%. The industry is facing a crisis in confidence and trust. Since the beginning of the year, there have been over 50 cruises canceled, and several ports closed following reports of 5 ships quarantined.
  • There has been a 'soft' trend in bookings as a result of the outbreak of the coronavirus across the world. Asia accounts for roughly 10% of the global cruise industry, which could lead to significant revenue and earnings shortage for the year 2020 due to the high number of cancellations and refunds.
Sources
Sources

From Part 02
Quotes
  • "When it came to their new high-speed rail project, the Association for California High-Speed Trains partnered with Project Buccaneer – a group of engineering, transportation and technology professionals – to create a virtual reality experience that would show Californians how it would work and impact their lives. This “California Experience” uses InfraWorks, 3Ds and ReCap Pro to give stakeholders and potential commuters the ability to feel as if they are getting off and on the train and walking among California landmarks. "
Quotes
  • "In an increasingly digital world, passengers will be able to smoothly continue their digital lives while riding trains. Platforms are being developed to provide passengers with outstanding experience before, while and after using public transportation. The goal: to enable passengers to stay connected during their commute on trains."
Quotes
  • "We support the development of sustainable transport systems, including energy-efficient multimodal transport systems, notably public mass transportation systems…"
Quotes
  • "Modern High-Speed trains like the Eurostar (pictured above), the French TGV (right), & the Japanese Bullet train; Regional trains; Monorails; Light rail; Trams; Trolleys; & Peoplemovers. "
Quotes
  • "The existing state of the art and ongoing R&I efforts under the flagship of European Commissions’ Shift2Rail Joint Undertaking (JU), creates a promising perspective for an automated and connected rail technological roadmap. "
Quotes
  • "The first high-speed rail system began operations in Japan in 1964, and is known as the Shinkansen, or “bullet train.” Today, Japan has a network of nine high speed rail lines serving 22 of its major cities, stretching across its three main islands, with three more lines in development. "
From Part 09
Quotes
  • "The tourism sector has an obligation to use its unique power to lead the response to the climate emergency and ensure responsible growth"
From Part 11
Quotes
  • "A century on, democratic ideals of international community are taking a battering, and Mackinder’s ideas are back in fashion. “Mackinder helped shape strategic thinking about great-power rivalry,” argues Professor Charles Kupchan, who was President Obama’s special assistant and a senior director on the National Security Council staff."
  • "The curious endurance of Halford Mackinder’s writing lies in the mix of physical geography and the dazzling designs he sketches on it. At one point in Democratic Ideals and Reality, he invites us to picture the Heartland from the moon. This capacity to picture the Earth from such a dizzying distance and perceive fundamental patterns makes his ideas endlessly adaptable, but it has also given them a dangerous allure."
Quotes
  • "The novelty of this research is also striking: from economy, back to geopolitics. From liberalism and economic globalization without boundaries, to the restart of the construction of walls and fences, to authoritarian states, to presidents for life, the emergence of nuclear conflict and global terrorism. The manifestation of hard power, (i.e. geopolitics), and freedom conditioned by power games, (i.e. tourism), are forced to co-operate in this turbulent world."
Quotes
  • "U.S.-China trade frictions appear to be moving sideways with the signing of a limited “Phase 1” trade deal. Nevertheless, we expect strategic competition to continue across a range of dimensions, including technology."
Quotes
  • "The coronavirus outbreak could cost the global tourism industry about US$80 billion in lost revenue, with players warning that the sector is unlikely to recover for at least one year."
Quotes
  • "In a Telegraph Travel poll conducted in the run-up to last year’s election, 35 per cent of readers said they would avoid the US if Donald Trump became president. "
From Part 12
Quotes
  • "1. Most countries that protested in 2019 aren't done yet.Venezuela, Honduras, Ecuador, Haiti and Bolivia all have factors that are going to lead to continued and likely increased protests in the coming year"
  • "2. Anti-system populists are struggling. Latin America's two largest countries are governed by populist leaders who have not met expectations. In Brazil, the Bolsonaro administration is below the 50% mark in the first year and has faced regular controversies over corruption scandals. The country's legislature just passed pension reform, something that may be good for Brazil's long term budget but is likely to spark anger in the short term. Bolsonaro's personality makes him likely to overreact to initial protests and create reasons for protests to escalate. In Mexico, President Lopez Obrador will finish his first year with over 50% popularity, not something many other presidents in the region can claim. But he is far from his goals for economic growth and faces a security crisis that is worse than the worst days of the Calderon or Peña Nieto administrations."
  • "3. Stable countries look like Chile, and that's not good. Economic inequality is high, and there are large numbers of poor and lower middle class not able to take advantage of economic gains."
  • "4. New administrations face early challenges and resource constraints. There are three new administrations taking office that have the potential for early failure: Argentina, Guatemala and Panama. All three were elected with less than 50% of the vote and some of their support came due to voters disliking their opponents more rather than a mandate for the new president's ideology or policy platform. All three presidents are likely to see divided governing coalitions and all three lack the economic resources to meet their campaign promises."
Quotes
  • "This year has been marked by massive and unexpectedly violent protests in countries including Chile, Colombia and Ecuador, the abrupt resignation of President Evo Morales following Bolivia’s disputed election and the Peronists’ return to power in Argentina. Will the hemisphere see continued turbulence in the coming year? Which countries are likely to be the hotspots in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2020? "
  • "A major downturn in the world economy would have broad regional implications, undermining the already vulnerable socioeconomic status of the tens of millions of Latin Americans who emerged from poverty during the years of commodity-led growth from about 2003-2013. Natural phenomena such as a major drought, earthquake or hurricane—more likely than ever with global climate change—could provoke political upheaval, with the Northern Triangle countries of Central America especially susceptible. Other threats to political stability will likely emerge from unattended weaknesses in governance throughout the region. Political polarization, distrust of government and political parties, corruption, weak rule of law and the lure of populism on the left and right undermine economic development and hollow out the moderate center. Repressive authoritarian regimes in Venezuela and Nicaragua will come under increased pressure, and Bolivia’s transition to a president not named Evo Morales won’t be easy. However, even countries with much stronger democratic institutions face challenges posed by the disparity in the distribution of wealth and opportunity that exacerbates political tension. Lack of progress in strengthening democratic governance during the years of economic boom is coming back to haunt the region.”"
  • " Brazilian President Bolsonaro’s incendiary rhetoric; Colombian President Duque’s willful neglect of the peace process; the messes in Peru and Ecuador; the raging crisis in Haiti; and the simmering crises in Honduras and Guatemala are bringing out the worst in leaders and laying bare societal weaknesses. "
  • "The OAS plays favorites—openly welcoming U.S. military intervention in Venezuela; condemning the Bolivian elections but not the coup that removed President Morales; turning a blind eye to police abuses in Chile; and remaining silent about narcocorruption and human rights violations in Honduras, the disbanding of Congress in Peru and social anomie in Haiti. "
  • "Chile’s dramatic and violent protests sparked a constitutional reform process that will consume the country’s politics in 2020. Bolivia’s cathartic break from Evo Morales has quickly transitioned into electoral uncertainty. The Peronist resurrection in Argentina has set in motion the Fernández-versus-Fernández psychodrama as the country analyzes whether Alberto or Cristina wields true power. Leaders in Colombia and Ecuador will struggle to overcome slumping commodity prices and public discontent. And of course, the tragicomic pas-de-deux between Nicolás Maduro and Juan Guaidó in Venezuela will reach its one-year anniversary on Jan. 23, with no clear end in sight."
  • " However, U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo’s recently unveiled mantra of ‘realism and restraint’ in Latin America suggests the United States will take a backseat in the region, especially as Washington’s political battles intensify ahead of the 2020 election."
  • "But it’s hard to predict where the turbulence will be worst: who would have topped their list with Bolivia, Chile and Ecuador a year ago? Brazil and Mexico are good guesses: populist presidents run into trouble if they don’t deliver in their second year in office. Mexicans are tiring of stubborn insecurity, and organized crime is challenging the López Obrador government ever more directly. A weak economy doesn’t help. A badly polarized Brazil could be one bus fare increase away from mass protest, as happened in 2013. Bolivia’s elections, when they happen, promise to be fraught. In Colombia, an unpopular and fiscally constrained president is hitting serious governability issues. Venezuela could go either way: Maduro will either muddle through or—ideally—negotiate an exit. Much depends on whether the opposition can manage to restore its flagging momentum. Either way, expect continued large-scale refugee flows. In Honduras and Nicaragua, long-serving authoritarian leaders are unpopular and could face strong challenges. "
  • "Each country in the region has its own unique issues, but the rapid swing of the pendulum from left to right, or vice versa, as in the fall from power of Evo Morales in Bolivia and Argentina’s October election results, creates continuing economic and social instability. Chile’s plans to rewrite its constitution may not prevent its economy from sliding into recession. Colombia and Ecuador both have to rethink their reform plans due to the protests, which is likely to affect their economic growth. While international investors have been hoping to see Venezuela’s debt restructuring finally take shape in the coming year to help solve that country’s social and economic meltdown, Argentina also will need to face its own sovereign debt crisis (again) or face further turbulence. In Brazil and Mexico, the two largest economies in the region, the hard left-wing president in Mexico appears to be riding the economy into a recession, while the ultra-right wing president in Brazil seems to be enjoying an economic upswing. The one constant seems to be the rapidity of change in the region.”"
Quotes
  • "2020 could bring another year of turmoil for Latin America after the dramatic events of 2019 from the Caribbean to Chile "
  • "“Latin America is in a moment of turbulence. But [for the left] turbulence is better than a death in the cemetery.”"
  • "“There is a strong chance that 2020 will be another volatile year for Latin America,” the report said, predicting particularly choppy waters in Lenín Moreno’s Ecuador. “It’s like a powder keg,” Amorim agreed. “At any moment that [country] could explode again.”"
  • "Briscoe saw three likely 2020 flash points: Venezuela, as it fell deeper into political and humanitarian ruin; Brazil and Argentina, as a diplomatic spat intensified between their ideologically opposed leaders; and Mexico, where President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is struggling to control a historic murder crisis claiming almost 100 lives a day."
  • "Briscoe also foresaw strife in Bolivia if the ultra-conservative activist Luis Fernando Camacho reached the second-round of fresh presidential elections and faced a candidate from Evo Morales’s leftist Movement Towards Socialism."
  • "“I’d say we will be facing a very tricky period … In Colombia, in Chile, but also Brazil, Mexico and Argentina there is potential for things to go very wrong indeed. “We are sitting on a minefield of social discontent,” Briscoe added, identifying Honduras, Nicaragua, Bolivia and Chile as other potential “danger spots”."
Quotes
  • " It all started in September 2019, when in both Nicaragua and Haiti, thousands of citizens took the streets to challenge their governments on their political and economic reforms. By the end of the year, seven other countries in the region had experienced violent uprisings and State-backed repression: Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela. The protests aimed to reduce one of the main sources of conflict in the Global South: poverty derived from indiscreet inequality. "
  • "At this desperate juncture in the region’s history, the uprisings in Latin America are therefore being led by the youth, who will also control its future. "
  • "Global trends support these arguments, economists of widespread impact, such as Thomas Piketty, and institutions outside any leftwing ideology, such as the IMF, have noted that extreme social inequalities undermine the Western standard of living. The issue of inequality has so far been seen as irrelevant, and rather an ethical problem, but as shown during the uprisings in the region, it is a ticking time-bomb for the Welfare State."
Quotes
  • "Tensions are rising because citizens around the world are raising questions about the relationship that exists between governments and themselves. The social contract that exists between society and their governments is unraveling as people demand increasing levels of security and prosperity. Globalization means that domestic conditions are shaped, to an ever-greater degree, by occurrences overseas."
  • "4. Populism and dissent will spread across Latin America. Leftist governments have been kicked out in Argentina, Peru, and Guatemala. Venezuela’s left-wing populist government is stripping the country of its democratic institutions in a sharp slide towards authoritarianism, leading to a sharp increase in lawlessness across the country. Furthermore, while Venezuela doesn’t produce drugs, it’s become a major transport hub for drugs going to Europe or Africa before being routed to Europe. Drug trafficking increases under as the rule of law decreases. After a 2009 coup in Honduras, the country was run by a fragile government—lawlessness increased dramatically. Honduras now has one of the highest homicide rates in the world. Countries like the United States are seeing a significant increase in the number of people arriving from countries like Honduras that are plagued with violence."
Quotes
  • "a ranking of the Latin American and Caribbean countries with the largest number of international tourist arrivals in 2018. According to UNWTO, Mexico was the most visited country by international tourists in Latin America and the Caribbean, with almost 41.5 million arrivals. In second place, but far behind, comes Argentina with 6.9 million international visitors, overtaking Brazil, which received around 6.6 million in that same year. "
Quotes
  • " South America has had: (M1.5 or greater) 0 earthquakes in the past 24 hours 15 earthquakes in the past 7 days 70 earthquakes in the past 30 days 1,020 earthquakes in the past 365 days The largest earthquake in South America: this week: 5.2 in Calama, Antofagasta, Chile this month: 5.5 in El Hoyo, Santiago del Estero, Argentina this year: 8.0 in Lagunas, Loreto, Peru "
Quotes
  • "Evacuations in Bogotá and the suspension of transportation systems followed a magnitude-6.2 earthquake, which struck on or near where the North Andean Block grinds against South American Plate. The mainshock was followed just 15 minutes later by a magnitude-5.7 aftershock. Further large aftershocks remain a possibility. "
  • "he magnitude-6.2 is the largest crustal earthquake that has occurred in Colombia in the last 20 years, but its size and location are not surprising for earthquake scientists. The epicenter is located on the eastern side of the Eastern Cordillera of Colombia, where the Algeciras fault system acts as the boundary between the South American plate and the North Andean Block [Velandia et al., 2005; Veloza et al., 2012]. The Algeciras fault system is as a right-lateral strike slip fault, meaning that whichever side of the fault you’re on, the opposite side moves to the right (see the green arrows on the map below). The Algeciras fault system was also responsible for the largest historical crustal earthquake in Colombia—the 1967 magnitude-7.0 Huila earthquake [Dimaté et al.,2005]. "
  • "n recent years, seismic activity surged near the town of Colombia (a town with the same name as the country). Three earthquakes greater than magnitude-5.0 struck the town in October 2016, February 2017 and July 2018, and were felt in major cities"
Quotes
  • "15 May 2018–New seismic hazard and risk models developed for South America suggest that more than 160 million people—about one-third of the continent’s total population—live in areas with significantly elevated seismic hazard, according to a report discussed at the 2018 SSA Annual Meeting. Risk is greatest in the western and northern parts of the continent, where earthquakes and tsunamis have caused considerable loss of life and infrastructure in the past century, said U.S. Geological Survey seismologist Mark Petersen."
Quotes
  • "South American volcano showing early warning signs of 'potential collapse', research shows One of South America's most prominent volcanoes is producing early warning signals of a potential collapse, new research has shown. Tungurahua volcano in Ecuador -- known locally as "The Black Giant" -- is displaying the hallmarks of flank instability, which could result in a colossal landslide. New research, led by Dr James Hickey from the Camborne School of Mines, has suggested that the volcano's recent activity has led to significant rapid deformation on the western flank. The researchers believe that the driving force causing this deformation could lead to an increased risk of the flank collapsing, causing widespread damage to the surrounding local area."
Quotes
  • "1. Uruguay 2. Chile 3. Suriname 4. Argentina 5. Ecuador 6. Paraguay 7. Guyana 8. Bolivia 9. Peru 10. Brazil 11. Colombia 12. Venezuela The top three countries were considered politically stable, and the rest not. "
Quotes
  • "There are fears that Chile will cease to be an economic model for Latin America following violent protests that left at least 24 dead in recent weeks and ended with a political agreement to re-write its constitution. "
  • "Chile is also ranks first in Latin America — and 44th among 189 countries — in the United Nations Human Development Index. The U.N. ranking counts not only economic growth, but also health and education standards."
  • "Chile has lower inequality levels than many other Latin American countries."
  • "On Nov. 15, after month-long riots sparked by a rise in transportation fees, the country’s major political parties reached an agreement to hold a referendum in April 2020. "
Quotes
  • "Paraguay has long struggled to detain and prosecute powerful drug traffickers as Brazilian cartels have become deeply entrenched in the tiny South American nation."
  • "The Brazilian drug cartel, which has tens of thousands of members, dominates the cocaine industry in São Paulo. Ms. Pérez said the most senior cartel leader who fled was David Timoteo Ferreira, a Brazilian P.C.C. leader who had been in custody in Paraguay since 2017."
  • "Paraguay’s justice minister, Cecilia Pérez, "
  • "At least 75 members of a powerful Brazilian drug cartel escaped from a prison in northern Paraguay through a tunnel on Sunday, pulling off an escape plan that officials had known about for more than a month but were unable to stop. (Jan 19, 2020)"
Quotes
  • "Do not travel to Venezuela due to crime, civil unrest, poor health infrastructure, kidnapping, and arbitrary arrest and detention of U.S. citizens. Country Summary: On March 11, 2019, the U.S. Department of State announced the withdrawal of diplomatic personnel from U.S. Embassy Caracas. All consular services, routine and emergency, are suspended until further notice. The U.S. government has limited ability to provide emergency services to U.S. citizens in Venezuela. Violent crime, such as homicide, armed robbery, kidnapping, and carjacking, is common. Political rallies and demonstrations occur, often with little notice. Demonstrations typically elicit a strong police and security force response that includes the use of tear gas, pepper spray, water cannons, and rubber bullets against participants and occasionally devolve into looting and vandalism. There are shortages of food, electricity, water, medicine, and medical supplies throughout much of Venezuela. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a Level 3 ‘Avoid Nonessential Travel’ notice on May 15, 2018 due to inadequate healthcare and the breakdown of the medical infrastructure in Venezuela."
Quotes
  • "Exercise increased caution in Colombia due to crime, terrorism, and kidnapping. Some areas have increased risk. Read the entire Travel Advisory. Do Not Travel to: Arauca, Cauca (except Popayan), Chocó (except Nuquí), Nariño, and Norte de Santander (except Cucuta) departments due to crime and terrorism. "
Quotes
  • "Brazil, Venezuela, Columbia, Suriname, Equador, Brazil, Argentina, Bolivia, Chile"
Quotes
  • "Officials have been saying Salvador, with its gorgeous beaches, colonial architecture and a unique Africa-influenced culture, could help solve one of Brazil’s most enduring riddles: how to attract tourists. But Oliveira, 36, wasn’t so sure. “Even I don’t feel safe here,” he said, exasperated. “I’ve seen tourists, lots of them, robbed here. And they come, and then they never come back.”"
  • "Brazil brought in only 6.6 million foreign visitors in 2018 "
  • "The number of foreign visitors dropped 5 percent last year amid a drumbeat of bad news and international condemnation. There were the Amazon forest fires. Then a devastating oil spill. A record number of killings by police in Rio de Janeiro. And through it all, a president who revels in political provocation — saying he’d rather have a dead son than a gay one, calling for criminals to be killed in the streets “like cockroaches,” insulting the appearance of the wife of French President Emmanuel Macron."
  • "But parts of Salvador, one of the most violent cities in a violent country, have the hunted feeling of a town besieged. Police officers stand on every street corner, springing into action to arrest pickpockets, one of whom attempted to rob this reporter at dusk one night."
  • "Tourists are skittish."
Quotes
  • " Peru does have some serious concerns surrounding citizen security and some parts of the country must be avoided. In the east Andes region of the country, a minimal police presence allows for rampant illegal activity including unregulated mining and narco-trafficking. While that area is easily avoided, muggings in major cities are also an issue. "
  • ""
Quotes
  • "Days after a powerful earthquake rocked Indonesia’s resort island of Lombok, killing more than 130 people and sending thousands of tourists fleeing, its beach strip stands eerily empty, with shops and hotels shuttered. "
  • "Days after a powerful earthquake rocked Indonesia’s resort island of Lombok, killing more than 130 people and sending thousands of tourists fleeing, its beach strip stands eerily empty, with shops and hotels shuttered. "
  • "Foreign and domestic tourists fled after Sunday’s earthquake of magnitude 6.9 destroyed homes and displaced tens of thousands of people, adding to the havoc from an earlier quake on July 29, although of smaller magnitude, at 6.4. "
From Part 14
Quotes
  • " Airport i-Beacon, wearables and augmented reality examples Côte d’Azur Airport (NCE) launched a beacon-enabled application (app) at the opening of its newly refurbished Terminal 1 retail area. The airport has installed several beacons across the terminal to send contextual retail information and promotions to passengers, on the basis of their location in the terminal. Miami International Airport (MIA) launched the beacon-enabled app to improve passenger experience by providing personalized updates, directions, tips on the basis of their location and needs at the airport. Hong Kong International Airport (HKG) was amongst the first airports in Asia to test the iBeacon technology. The airport has installed more than 50 beacons at Terminal 1 to trigger location-relevant messages to passengers. The airport also uses interactive navigation maps to guide passengers along common navigation paths, such as public transport points, check-in counters, immigration, boarding/arrival gates, and baggage claim areas. Tokyo Haneda airport (HND) Japan Airline staff are provided with smart watches to enhance their effectiveness in assisting passengers. The beacons and smart watches help identify the exact location of staff and to assign and communicate specific tasks to their location in the airport. This unique initiative led to Japan Airlines being the first airline to use beacons to improve operational efficiency. Gatwick airport (LGW) invested in upgrading and modernising infrastructure, and in simplifying the passenger experience and optimising operations. By communicating with mobile apps, the augmented reality (AR) wayfinding tool allows passengers to use the camera function on their device to view directions to their destination within the terminal. "
  • "provide details on the current use of technologies that can enhance the passenger airport experience. The concept of common use (CU), such as common use self-service (CUSS) and common use passenger processing systems (CUPPs), is employed at numerous airports to improve operational efficiency and to allow passengers to have considerable control and flexibility over certain basic functions, such as the check-in process. Moreover, radio-frequency identification (RFID), near-field communication (NFC), and i-Beacon technology are also utilised in the airport environment. RFID can be used to streamline performance in baggage tracking and security gate processing in the airport. NFC uses magnetic field induction to enable communication amongst devices when touched together (TechTarget Network, 2017). Several airports are using NFC to facilitate passenger boarding at the gate or accessing the airline lounges. According to SITA (2017), NFC technology will help increase the sharing of mobile boarding passes from between 2% and 3% in 2011 to between 50% and 80% by 2018. i-Beacon technology is a technology that uses Bluetooth low energy and geo-fencing to trigger the display of location relevant information on devices at the right time, and in the right situation (SITA, 2017). A number of airports have used i-Beacon to enhance the retail experience and airport navigation, as well as ensuring that passengers receive real-time flight information. Wearables are also expected to play a crucial role in the passenger experience through the use of smart wearables such as Google Glass and Smartwatch, which are expected to be introduced in 2018 (FlightView, 2015). Robots have now been introduced in the areas of customer service and also to reduce the burden of the cleaning tasks from cleaners in the airport terminal."
Quotes
  • "Food delivery services: The food delivery industry is valued at $13 billion and estimated to grow to $365 billion globally by 2030. As more millennials start families, 90 percent of parents are ordering takeout at least once a week; roughly three-quarters of millennials without kids follow the same patterns. Now this convenience is extending to the airport. Food ordering services, such as Grab, a mobile app and self-service kiosk provider, allows time-pressed, hungry travelers to pre-order their meals and pick them up from a variety of airport restaurants before heading to their departure gate. This not only saves time but offers travelers a convenient way to enjoy a fresh meal from one of their favorite eateries. Wayfinding apps: Many of today’s airport terminals seem to resemble the inside of travelers’ favorite malls, offering shops and restaurants galore. With so many options out there, having a way to get from point A to point B as quickly as possible is an attractive proposition for many.Technology companies such as LocusLabs use beacons to underpin wayfinding apps in airport terminals, offering passengers real-time information to navigate to nearby restaurants, airport facilities, and their departure gates. Priority Pass’s in-app airport maps also uses this technology to help members locate available lounges and other airport amenities, providing hassle free travel experiences."
  • "Mobile boarding passes and loyalty cards: Mobile boarding passes not only cut down on the amount of paper used by airlines, but they are also extremely convenient. Whether accessed via a traveler’s mobile phone or smartwatch, mobile boarding passes make getting through security a far more streamlined experience. Tech-savvy passengers can simply breeze through boarding gates with a turn of the wrist. Advances in technology mean that biometrics could soon do away with the traditional boarding pass entirely, with passengers’ faces becoming their ticket to travel. In fact, the Department of Homeland Security says it expects to use facial recognition technology on 97 percent of departing passengers within the next four years. The rise of the virtual loyalty card is also helping travelers to not only streamline their experiences but also earn or redeem valuable miles and points when they make in-airport purchases. The use of mobile boarding passes and loyalty cards allow passengers to efficiently go through security, make purchases, collect loyalty points at their favorite shops and restaurants, and access airport amenities including passenger lounges or spas, right at their fingertips. Personalized shopping: Some airports and vendors are tapping into customers’ data to personalize their shopping experiences. It is becoming more common for travelers to receive preflight emails days before their trip that offers discounts at airport shops and concessions. Furthermore, as data insights advance, flyers will increasingly find these offers in the form of push notifications sent directly to their mobile devices as they move through an airport terminal.As more travelers look for perfect experiences, airports are investing in their broader eco-system to meet consumers’ rising expectations for technology-filled journeys. Whether that is in the form of robot concierges or touch-screen shopping, advances in technology are bringing more and more innovation to airport terminals—and more friction-free travel experiences for flyers."
Quotes
  • "Passengers flying into Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport are often surprised to discover that the busy hub is a testing ground for the latest in biometric technology. In fact, the country’s first-ever facial recognition terminal is now being operated here. This means that passengers flying direct to an international destination on Delta, Aeromexico, Air France, KLM and Virgin Atlantic can now opt in to use the latest facial recognition technology (FRT) from curb to gate. That means instead of using boarding passes and other identification to check in, check a bag or pass through security, passengers are now using their own faces. Here’s how it works:"
  • "assengers have the option of entering passport information online before they even arrive. If they forget to do so, they can enter the information at special kiosks in the airport lobby. These same kiosks are where passengers scan their faces before dropping baggage at the counter and passing through security"
  • "Because this technology is still in its beta stage, passengers who opt out of using it are still able to proceed to flights as they always have, though it seems that more travelers than ever are eager to participate in the pilot program. Delta reported that when the technology made its debut last year, most of the estimated 25,000 people who traveled through the concourse each week were eager to use FRT (only 2% of travelers opted out)."
  • ""
From Part 15
From Part 16
Quotes
  • "This statistic shows the market size of the global travel industry in 2019, by region. The EMEA region held the largest share of the travel industry worldwide with a market size of 644 billion U.S. dollars. The region with the smallest travel industry was Latin America with a market size of 89 billion U.S. dollars."
Quotes
  • "However, during the forecast period, the APAC region is expected to register the highest incremental growth due to the growth of the tourism industry in countries such as China, India, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines, Singapore, and Indonesia."
Quotes
  • "Information sharing is vital. We would urge even closer cooperation between public and private sectors, not only in China but further afield, across Asia Pacific, Europe, Africa and the Americas. Rapid action can help limit lasting damage and the economic impact on the global Travel & Tourism sector, an industry that generates 10.4% (US$8.8 trillion) to global GDP.” WTTC says previous viral outbreaks show how devastating their effect can be."
Quotes
  • "The United Nations World Tourism Organization is predicting further growth of three per cent to four per cent in international tourist arrivals for 2020, with international departures worldwide particularly strong in the first quarter of this year."
  • "The impact on travel to and from China of this new coronavirus, however, has been devastating. "
  • "The spread of infectious diseases is invariably linked to travel. Today, tourism is a huge global business that accounts for 10.4 per cent of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 10 per cent of global employment."
Quotes
  • "The Global Tourism industry is expected to increase at an annualized rate of 1.5% to $1.7 over the five years to 2019. Global tourism has performed well during the five-year period, with emerging economies continuing to stimulate growth. Moreover, countries in Asia and South America have experienced robust growth in per capita income, which has enabled consumers in these regions to take overseas trips in increasing numbers. "
Quotes
  • "The mysterious coronavirus spreading around the world poses a "substantial" risk to global air travel and the aerospace sector, an analyst for Canaccord Genuity is warning, and the effects are already being seen in flight cancelations"
  • "However, the long-term financial impact of the outbreak could be less severe."
Quotes
  • "The report, which was released late last week, tracks demand around the Lunar New Year holiday, a traditionally busy time for air travel in the region. As of January 31st, seven days after the holiday, domestic and international air travel demand is down 40% from 2019 to 2020."
  • "According to the report, “passenger volumes declined sharply following the closure of Wuhan Airport and World Health Organization’s declaration of the coronavirus as an international public health emergency.”"
Quotes
  • "According to estimates by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), Chinese outbound tourism will not recover to pre- coronavirus levels until the second quarter of 2021, and will cause a global loss of $80 billion."
Quotes
  • "Global airline revenues are expected to fall by $4-5 billion in the first quarter of 2020 as a result of flight cancellations, according to a report from the UN’s International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)."
Quotes
  • "For Yum China, the impact is not insignificant: The company operates 9,200 locations, including more than 6,500 KFC locations. That means the operator has closed about 3,000 restaurants temporarily."
  • "Yum Brands, Starbucks, McDonald’s and others have had to close stores in a country many see as a major source of growth."
Quotes
  • "The restaurant sector in China will see a “significant” fall in first-quarter sales, S&P Global said. The firm projected those figures will only be around 45% to 55% of sales revenue during the same period last year."
Quotes
  • "The hotel industry could end up having to deal with the impact of coronavirus for the next 12 months, Nassetta told investors during a call detailing the McLean, Virginia-based company’s 2019 earnings."
  • ""
Quotes
  • "Preliminary data and analysis from STR found a hotel occupancy decline of 75 percent in mainland China from Jan. 14-26, and performance during the Chinese New Year holiday period was down significantly. "
Quotes
  • "In London, restaurant operators in the city's Chinatown have noticed a steep drop in business since the country's first two cases of the coronavirus were confirmed last week in northeast England."
  • "At restaurants in Manhattan's Chinatown, workers and owners said business had dropped 50 to 70% in the last 10 days"
Quotes
  • "This is expected to go down by at least 30% in 2020 due to the coronavirus, which in turn will reduce the total bed nights by over 900,000."
Quotes
  • "Shares in the three major cruise operators — Carnival, Royal Caribbean and Norwegian Cruise Line — are down between 10 and 16 per cent since the beginning of the year as investors register their concern. "
  • "David Handley, a maritime lawyer at Watson Farley & Williams in London, said that the most pressing issue was routing ships out of Asia. “How do cruise lines deal with some very expensive assets that were scheduled to be in Asia and which now there’s no point having in Asia because people just won’t travel,” he said. "
Quotes
  • "Five cruise ships including Diamond Princess, World Dream, Anthem of Seas, Westerdam, and Costa Smeralda have been quarantined after news about possible infections emerged."
Quotes
  • "Trips either cancelled or re-routed"
  • "Asia accounts for just some 10% of the global cruise industry, according to the Cruise Lines International Association."
Quotes
  • "According to STR, the parent company of Hotel News Now, occupancy on 14 January was 70%, but that the number has plummeted since, with 26 January data, showing a 75% drop in occupancy during that period to 17%."
Quotes
  • "Ctrip, China’s largest online booking platform, said more than 300,000 hotels on its platform had agreed to refunds on bookings between Jan. 22 and Feb. 8."