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Total addressable market size for women dresses, tops and bottoms categories in online/eCommerce vs. offline/Stores
Hi there, and thank you for your request on the total addressable market for women dresses, tops and bottoms, broken down by online and offline purchases.
The short answer is that in 2015, 78.08 million women purchased clothes in-stores for a value of US$68.70 billion, and in 2016, 21.04 million women purchased clothes online for a value of US$31.17 billion. Dresses, bottoms and tops represent 49.42% of total - meaning women purchased US$33.95 billion worth of said items offline, and US$15.40 billion online.
I elaborate on my findings below.
METHODOLOGY
In order to answer your query, I looked for information on the apparel market in the US broken down by gender, as well as by offline and online. Below you will find information from the NPD Group, K3 Retail, IBISWorld, Foresee, Statista and the US Census.
Below you will also find forecasts for upcoming years, up to 2020. Please note that this research project focuses on hard number predictions - should you require qualitative data on future trends, please submit an additional request with us, and we will be happy to follow up.
Please note that values specific to each clothing item were not publicly available. None of the consulted sources, including the NPD Group's study on clothing items, included an exact breakdown per specific type of clothes - and information available was not specific enough to make an educated guess. The NPD Group did provide information on projected growth per item, as well as total amount combined - which is offered below. Please note that the most recent data on this information is from 2013.
This information applies to the US only.
APPAREL MARKET IN THE US: ONLINE VS. OFFLINE
The apparel market, including men and women's clothing, reached US$225 billion in 2015, total - of which women's shopping accounted for US$110.82 billion, or 49.25% of total.
According to an article by Natalie Bruins from Marketing at K3 Retail, 62% of shoppers buy in store. Considering that in 2014 there were 125.9 million adult women in the US, we can estimate that, in 2015, 78.08 million women purchased in store.
The market for in-store purchasing for women in the US is declining slightly, at a rate of 0.5% annually. Taking this percentage into account, the estimates for the number of women in the US that will buy in-store in upcoming years is the following:
2016: 77.68 million
2017: 77.29 million
2018: 76.9 million
2019: 76.51 million
2020: 76.12 million
In terms of dollar value, 62% of US$110.82 billion was purchased off-line - coming up to US$68.70 billion. Considering the same negative growth rate will come up to:
2016: US$68.35 billion
2017: US$68 billion
2018: US$67.66 billion
2019: US$67.32 billion
2020: US$66.98 billion
According to IBISWorld, in 2015 US clothing stores for women reached US$42 billion in sales. Growth rate is, as stated above, -0.5% - making forecasts for upcoming years as follows:
2016: US$41.79 billion
2017: US$41.58 billion
2018: US$41.37 billion
2019: US$41.16 billion
2020:US$40.95 billion
Online shopping is still a small chunk of the market, but it is growing exponentially. Online apparel shopping represented 17% of total in 2015, according to Foresee. Taking into account that percentage and the number of adult women in the US, we can estimate that 21.40 million women purchased apparel online in 2015.
Foresee stated that online shopping grew around 3% between 2014 and 2015. Assuming this percentage stays stable, we can forecast the number of women who will purchase clothes online in upcoming years as follows:
2016: 129.7 million
2017: 133.6 million
2018: 137.7 million
2019: 141.9 million
2020: 146.2 million
In terms of dollar value, Statista points out the total spending in apparel online at US$63.29 billion in 2016 - of which women would represent, per our percentage calculations above, US$31.17 billion.
Statista listed predictions through 2020, of which women's spending is listed below. According to these numbers, growth rate for the upcoming years will be between 6.7% and 10%:
PER ITEMS: DRESS, TOPS & BOTTOMS
According to the NPD Group, dresses, tops and bottoms represented US$99.45 billion, of a total US$201.2 billion, in 2013 - or 49.42% of total.
As we stated above, apparel expenses for women in 2015 was US$110.82 billion, of which dress tops & bottoms accounts for US$54.76 billion.
Growth rate between 2013 and 2015 of total apparel reached 11.82% - so an annual average of 5.91%. Therefore, for years between 2015 and 2020, women's purchases for dresses, tops and bottoms can be predicted as follows:
2015: US$54.76 billion
2016: US$58 billion
2017: US$61 billion
2018: US$64.61 billion
2019: US$68.43 billion
2020: US$72.48 billion
For offline purchases, dresses, tops and bottoms represent the following:
2015: US$33.95 billion
2016: US$33.77 billion
2017: US$33.60 billion
2018: US$33.43 billion
2019: US$33.26 billion
2020: US$33.10 billion
For online purchases, dresses, tops and bottoms represent the following:
2016: US$15.40 billion
2017: US$16.99 billion
2018: US$18.70 billion
2019: US$20.42 billion
2020: US$21.98 billion
According to NPD Group, growth rate for each category in 2013 was 6% for pants, -1% for dresses and between 5% and 9% for tops.
To wrap up, around 80 million women purchased offline, and over 20 million women purchased online in 2016 - with online shopping experiencing positive growth, and offline shopping negative growth.
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