Mental Health Addressable Market

• In 2017, about 20% of the adult population in the US got diagnosed with at least one mental health condition, which represented a total addressable market of 46.6 million adults. Out of this number, just about 41% (or 19.1 million people) sought therapy, according to NIMH.
•  As of 2018, a report by NAMI showed that the number of adults in the US diagnosed with a mental health condition went up to 47.6 million (a growth of 2.15%).
• Assuming a similar growth rate of 2.15% yearly over the next decade, the estimated TAM for the mental health therapy industry will increase to about 60.15 million by 2029, using the CAGR calculator.
• According to a report by Northwestern Mutual, the minimum yearly cost of mental health therapy was $3,200 in 2017.
• As per data by Statista, the average inflation rate for the US dollar from 2010 to 2024 was projected at 2.25% annually in the rise of prices generally.
• Based on the dollar inflation rate data by Statista, the estimated minimum yearly cost for mental health therapy in 2017 (USD3,200) would be $3,272 in 2018 and $4,179.36 by 2029, as per the CAGR calculator.
• Thus, assuming the 47.6 million people diagnosed with a mental health condition in 2018 needed mental health therapy at an estimated minimum (inflated) yearly cost of $3,272, the estimated TAM in 2018 was $155.75 billion.
• Also, if the 60.15 million projected to have a mental health condition by 2029 seek mental therapy, at the expected inflated rate of the dollar in 2029 ($4,179.36), the TAM for mental therapy by then would reach $251.39 billion.
• Assuming a similar rate of people who sought mental therapy in 2017 (41%) still do so by 2029, that would be about 24.67 million American adults seeking mental health therapy, by 2029. For this percentage, the TAM would be around $103.10 billion.

Research Strategy and Calculations:

Calculations

Current and Projected Number of Speech Therapists in the US

• As of 2018, there were 153,700 speech therapists, also referred to as speech-language pathologists. 
• According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the projected number of speech therapists in the US by 2028 will be 195,600. This represents a 27% increase.

Personnel-to-Population Ratios for Speech Therapists in the US

• ASHA calculates personnel-to-population ratios for speech-language pathologists in the US-based on the number of speech-language pathologists in relation to the population of a given area. 
• While the personnel to population ratios are a good measure of the distribution of speech therapists, ASHA does not determine the ideal ratios for the country or even individual states. This is because "good ratios vary by state and region and depend on many factors, such as population density, client/patient demographics, service needs, presence of support personnel, and other factors."
• As such, it's difficult to establish the gap between the number of therapists and the number of therapists required to cover the US population in theory.
• Still, multiple sources indicate that there's an acute shortage of speech therapists in the US, and the job openings are higher than the demand.
• Between 2014 to 2024, there are an estimated 28,900 additional speech-language pathologists in the US, and there are not enough SLPs for these positions.
• Schools in the US are experiencing a shortage of SLPs, with 48% more job openings than job seekers.
• According to ASHA, the personnel-to-population ration for speech-language pathologists in the US was " 51.1 ASHA-certified speech-language pathologists for every 100,000 residents."
• During that year, the state of Arkansas had the highest personnel-to-population ratio, at 82.0, and Nevada had the lowest, at 26.2. 
• Using ASHA's formula, we can calculate the 2018 and 2028 personnel-to-population for the US as follows:
• 2018: (153,700/327,096,265) x 100,000 = 47.0 speech-language pathologists for 100,000 of the population
• 2028: (195,600/351,625,839) x 100,000 = 55.63 speech-language pathologists for 100,000 people.

Findings

2019 Occupational therapist in the United States.

• According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the United States had 133,000 occupational therapists in 2018, with a projected growth rate of 18% for the next ten years to 2028.
• The total number of occupational therapists in 2019 is projected to be 156,940.
• According to the Utah Medical Education Council, the ideal national average occupational-therapists-to-100,000-people ratio should be 38.7.
• According to the World Population Review, the United States of America has a total population of 329.45 million, with a growth rate of 0.6%.
• The target national average occupational-therapist-to-100,000-people ratio of 38.7 and the 2019 population of 329.45 million people yield an estimated number of 127,493 occupational therapists required in the United States in 2019.
• From the total number and required number of occupational therapists in 2019, the occupational therapy profession is estimated to be oversupplied by 29,447 occupational therapists in 2019.

2029 Occupational therapist in United States.

• According to the World Population Review, the United States of America will have a total population of 353.01 million people in 2029, with a growth rate of 0.61%.
• From the target national average occupational-therapist-to-100,000-people ratio of 38.7 and the 2029 population of 353.01 million people, it is estimated that the United States will require 136,614 occupational therapists in 2029.
• The total number of occupational therapists in the US is projected to reach 821,398 by 2029, which will make the occupational therapy profession oversupplied by 684,784 occupational therapists.

2019 Speech Therapists in United States.

• According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the United States had 153,700 speech therapists in 2018, with the projected growth rate of 27% for the next ten years to 2028.
• According to ASHA, the ideal national average speech-therapist-to-100,000-people ratio should be 51.1.
• From the target national average speech-therapist-to-100,000-people ratio of 51.1 and the 2019 population of 329.45 million, the required number of speech therapists in the United States is estimated to be 168,349 in 2019.
• The total number of speech therapists in 2019 is projected to be 195,199, which makes the profession oversupplied by 26,850 speech therapists.

2029 Speech therapist in United States.

• From the target national average occupational-therapist-to-100,000-people ratio of 51.1 and the 2029 population of 353.01 million people, it is estimated that the United States will require 180,387 speech therapists in 2029.
• The total number of speech therapists in the US is projected to reach 2.13 million by 2029, which will make the speech therapy profession oversupplied by 1.95 million speech therapists.

Research strategy

Calculations

• Using the above CAGR of 18% and 2018 value of 133,000 we calculated the amount of the total United States occupational therapists in 2019 using the formula below:
• 2018 value * (1 + CAGR) = 2019 value.

•  133,000 * (1 + 0.18) = 156,940 occupational therapists in 2019.

• Using the national target occupational-therapist-to-100,000-people of 38.7 and the 2019 population of 329.45 million people, we calculate the required number of occupational therapists using the formula below:
• (2019 national population * target ratio)/100,000 = required number of occupational therapists.
• (329.45 million * 38.7)/100,000 = 127,493 required occupational therapists.
• From the total number of occupational therapists and the number of required occupational therapists, we estimated the state of employment as follows:
• 156,940 - 127,493 = 29,447 (profession is oversupplied by 29,447 occupational therapists)

• Using the above CAGR of 18% and 2019 value of 156,940, we calculated the amount of the total United States occupational therapists in 2029 using the formula below:
• 2019 value * ((1 + CAGR) ^ number of years) = 2029 value.
• 156,940 * ((1 + 0.18) ^ 10) = 821,398 occupational therapists in 2029.

• Using the national target occupational-therapist-to-100,000-people of 38.7 and the 2029 population of 353.01 million people, we calculate the required number of occupational therapists using the formula below:
• (2029 national population * target ratio)/100,000 = required number of occupational therapists.
• (353.01 million * 38.7)/100,000 = 136,614 required occupational therapists.
• From the total number of occupational therapists and the number of required occupational therapists, we estimated the state of employment as follows:
• 821,398 - 136,614 = 684,784 (profession is estimated to be oversupplied by 684,784 occupational therapists by 2029)

• Using the above CAGR of 27% and 2018 value of 153,700 we calculated the amount of the total number of speech therapists in 2019 using the formula below:

• 2018 value * (1 + CAGR) = 2019 value.
•  153,700 * (1 + 0.27) = 195,199 speech therapists in 2019.

• Using the national target speech-therapist-to-100,000-people of 51.1 and the 2019 population of 329.45 million people, we calculate the required number of speech therapists using the formula below:
• (2019 national population * target ratio)/100,000 = required number of speech therapists.
• (329.45 million * 51.1)/100,000 = 168,349 required speech therapists.
• From the total number of speech therapists and the number of required speech therapists, we estimated the state of employment as follows:
• 195,199 - 168,349 = 26,850 (profession is oversupplied by 26,850 speech therapists)

• Using the above CAGR of 27% and 2019 value of 195,199, we calculated the amount of the total number of speech therapists in 2029 using the formula below:

• 2019 value * ((1 + CAGR) ^ number of years) = 2029 value.
• 195,199 * ((1 + 0.27) ^ 10) = 2,130,663 speech therapists in 2029.

• Using the national target speech-therapist-to-100,000-people of 51.1 and the 2029 population of 353.01 million people, we calculate the required number of occupational therapists using the formula below:
• (2029 national population * target ratio)/100,000 = required number of speech therapists.
• (353.01 million * 51.1)/100,000 = 180,387 required speech therapists.
• From the total number of speech therapists and the number of required occupational therapists, we estimated the state of employment as follows:
• 2,130,663 - 180,387 = 1,950,276 (profession is estimated to be oversupplied by 1.95 million speech therapists by 2029)