Automation-caused job losses
Research indicates that as high as 1.8 billion jobs (two-thirds of the labor force) in developing countries are susceptible to automation in the future. Automation affects developing countries differently than it does high-income countries. It was found that the poorer a country is, the higher the likelihood of its jobs being automated since it is more dependent on routine work such as agricultural jobs compared with the service industry that is more dominant within developed countries. The risk of automation across different countries/regions are summarized in this spreadsheet.
RISK OF JOB AUTOMATION: KEY FINDINGS
- A report published by PWC projects that job losses through automation in the future will happen in three waves from the early 2020s till mid-2030s. During this period, the jobs that will be affected first will be simple computational tasks. By mid-2030s, jobs that require mental dexterity and responsive decision-making will be affected.
- Another report states that by 2030, 36 million jobs in the US will be at high risk The most vulnerable jobs at risk of 70% of its tasks being automated include office administration, transportation, production and food preparation.
- According to the World Economic Forum, the most vulnerable jobs at risk of being automated by 2022 are routine-based, medium-skilled, white-collar jobs such as accounting and payroll.
- The International Labor Association has reported that within the ASEAN-5 region, 44%-70% of jobs are at the risk of being automated within the next one or two decades.
- Based on an analysis of projected job losses in US, UK, Germany, and Japan, PWC states that the jobs with the highest risk are in transportation and storage (56%), manufacturing (46%), wholesale and retail trade (44%).
- According to Citi GPS, the job losses projected for OECD countries on average is 57%. China, Thailand, and Ethiopia are among the most vulnerable countries.
- Findings from Oxford Economics shows that 20 million jobs in the manufacturing sector globally are at risk of being automated by 2030.
- A report published by the World Economic Forum on Sub-Saharan Africa states that in South Africa alone, 39% of the core skills across all jobs in the country will be different in 2020 compared with the skills required in 2015.