Shelf Stable Meat

Part
01
of two
Part
01

Market Size - Shelf Stable Meat: Chicken

The U.S. market size for canned chicken specifically is estimated to be around $1.092 billion, while the U.S. market size for all types of non-refrigerated canned and preserved chicken is estimated to be around $5.896 billion (excluding preserved chicken products that are chilled or frozen). Below, you will find a deep dive of our findings and methodology.

Methodology

To tackle this project, we first began by surveying the existing landscape of publicly available data concerning the market size of canned and preserved chicken in the United States across various market reports, surveys, industry reports, government websites, food and agriculture organizations, and trusted media articles. However, we were unable to locate any direct data that specifically shows the market size of 'shelf-stable chicken', canned chicken, or other preserved and non-refrigerated types of chicken. Overall, the vast majority of available information related to this topic talks about canned or processed meats or poultry in general rather than providing details specific to the chicken segments of these markets. Despite this lack of data, we were able to creatively pull together existing data to provide two estimates for the market size of shelf-stable chicken in the United States. The methodology used to carry out these estimates has been woven into the sections below.

*Please note that in some cases, some slightly older data was relied upon for these estimates as useful data overall was lacking. However, all the data used was published within the past three years.

ESTIMATE 1: the u.s. canned chicken market size is around $1.092 billion

To come up with an estimate for this market size, we first focused on trying to estimate the market size of canned chicken specifically, as this data seemed to be more readily available than data concerned other types of non-refrigerated and preserved/shelf-stable chicken. To do so, we first learned that the overall canned foods market in the U.S. is valued around $16.35 billion, as of 2017. Based on a visual graph published by Grand View Research, it appears that canned meat makes up about one-sixth of this market, or around 16.7% (100 / 6 = about 16.7). This means that the market size for canned meat specifically is around $2,730,450,000, or ($16.35 billion x 100) / 16.7 = 2,730,450,000.
Next, we set out to understand the market share of chicken within the canned meat market. As none of the resources we analyzed had this data available, we relied on a proxy by triangulating the share of chicken consumed within the U.S. meat market overall. In doing so, we uncovered data from the National Chicken Council which shows that in 2018 Americans ate 93.5 lbs of chicken per capita and a total of 218.8 pounds of all red meat and poultry combined per capita. Additionally, in 2016 they ate 14.7 lbs of fish (2016 was the last year reported for fish according to data from the National Chicken Council). This equals a total of 233.5 lbs of meat eaten per capita (or, 218.8 + 14.7 = 233.5), of which, chicken makes up approximately 40% of total meat consumption, or (93.5 x 100) / 233.5 = about 40.
Using this share of chicken as a proxy and combining it with the overall market size for canned meat, we estimated the market size of canned chicken in the United States is around $1,092,180,000 (or, 40% of $2,730,450,000 = $1,092,180,000).

ESTIMATE 2: the U.s. canned and preserved chicken market size is around $5.896 billion

Although our first estimate was solid in terms of calculating a market size for canned chicken specifically, we felt that limiting the focus to only canned goods was too narrow of a scope to sufficiently analyze the topic of 'shelf-stable' chicken, as we imagine there to be other forms of non-refrigerated, self-stable chicken products that aren't canned, such as those that come in a pouch, for example. Therefore, we decided to also come up with a second estimate that would take a broader look at this topic; from the perspective of processed meat overall.

In doing so, we first located a 2017 market report which shows that the processed meat market in the U.S. is divided into the following four key segments:

  • Chilled processed meat (79.08%)
  • Canned or preserved meat and meat products (6.64%)
  • Frozen processed poultry (8.94%)
  • Frozen processed red meat (5.34%)

This data proved to be extremely useful in our triangulation as it allowed us to isolate the non-refrigerated segment of preserved/processed (i.e. shelf-stable) meat products, which has a share of around 6.64%, according to the data above. The market size for processed meat in the U.S. overall is around $222 billion as of 2019 according to IBIS World. This means that the U.S. market size for non-refrigerated canned and preserved meat is about $14,740,800,000 or, (222 billion x 6.64)/100 = 14,740,800,000.
Lastly, we needed to isolate this market size down to the chicken segment specifically. Earlier in this report, we calculated that chicken makes up 40% of total U.S. meat consumption. Given this, the estimated market size for non-refrigerated canned and preserved chicken in the United States is around $5,896,320,000 or, (14,740,800,000 x 40) / 100 = 5,896,320,000.

Part
02
of two
Part
02

Growth - Shelf Stable Meat: Chicken

Based on the market estimates provided in the first part of this project, the US canned chicken market grew by a CAGR of 5.62% from 2014 to reach an estimated size of $1.092 billion in 2018. Furthermore, it is projected to see a small rise to $1.741 billion by 2025, growing with a CAGR of 6.89%. From a broader perspective, the U.S. market size for all types of non-refrigerated canned and preserved chicken (excluding frozen/chilled chicken) performed poorly from 2014 to 2019, clipping at $5.896 billion in 2019, at a declining estimated rate of -1.51%. However, this market is expected to see an improvement from 2019, reaching $8.272 billion at the projected rate of 5.81%.

METHODOLOGY

We began by reviewing the previous part of this project that focused on the market size of shelf stable meat: chicken. While we saw that the market size estimates were calculated, we went ahead to search for any pre-compiled growth figures that were relevant. And as expected, there was none. Hence, we moved to creatively calculate the growth figures based on the market size estimates already provided in the first part.

To calculate these US growth estimates (both for the historical and projected) that are consistent with the market size already provided, we leveraged the strategies and sources used to calculate the market sizes, only this time, we estimated the market size in 2014 and in 2018/2019 and used an online CAGR calculator to find the historical CAGR/growth rate from 2014 to 2018/2019; as well as the 2018/2019 and 2025 market sizes to calculate the projected growth rates using the same online calculator.

Note that since two different market size estimates were provided in the first part based on slightly different parameters, we have equally calculated the historical and projected growth rates for the two estimated sizes. Note also that we have used some sources that are beyond two years due to the unavailability of data. However, none of them exceeded last three years.

Below, we have provided our findings, alongside the calculations and assumptions to better express our approach and answers.

THE GROWTH RATE BASED ON THE FIRST ESTIMATE/SIZE FOR THE US CANNED CHICKEN MARKET

Based on this first estimate, "the U.S. market size for canned chicken specifically is estimated to be around $1.092 billion." This figure was estimated with 2018 as the base year. Hence, we used it in calculating the historical and projected growth rates.

  • THE HISTORICAL GROWTH RATE FROM 2014-2018

According to a report published by Grand View Research, visual graphical representation in the report showed that the size of the US canned food market in 2014 was $13.50 billion. Also, it appears that the canned meat segment took about one-sixth of this amount. Hence, the size of the canned meat market in 2014 was $2.25 billion (i.e., 1/6 * $13.50 billion = $2.25 billion).

Next, we sought to determine the share of chicken within the canned meat market in 2014 by finding the consumption of chicken in 2014. To do that, we leveraged a report provided by the National Chicken Council. The data showed that Americans consumed 83.8 lbs of chicken per capita, 200.0 lbs per capita of all red meat and poultry combined, and 14.6 lbs of fish in 2014. This shows that out of a total of 214.6 lbs per capita (i.e., 200.0 + 14.6 = 214.6) of meat consumed, the share of chicken consumption in 2014 was about 39% (i.e., [(83.8 / 214.6) * 100] = 39%).

Using the share of chicken consumption in the US (39%) as a proxy to its share in the canned meat market, we determined the size of the 2014 canned chicken market to be about $877,500,000 (i.e., 39% * 2.25 billion = $877,500,000)

Therefore, with the size of the US canned chicken market in 2014 as $877,500,000 and $1.092 billion in 2018, the historical growth rate/CAGR from 2014 to 2018 is 5.62%.

  • THE PROJECTED GROWTH RATE FROM 2018-2025

According to the report published by Grand View Research, it puts that the size of the US canned food market will be $22.23 billion by 2025. Again, it appears that the canned meat segment took about one-sixth of this amount. Hence, by 2025, the size of the canned meat market will be $3.705 billion (i.e., 1/6 * $22.23 billion = $3.705 billion).

Next, we determined the share of chicken within the canned meat market by 2025. We leveraged the report from the National Chicken Council. However, this time, there was no data for 2025. The latest was 2019 estimates. Furthermore, the latest data for those that consumed fish was for 2016. The report shows that Americans will consume an estimated 93.7 lbs of chicken per capita and 220.5 lbs per capita of all red meat and poultry combined in 2019 but 14.7 lbs of fish in 2016. Since the consumption of fish (14.7 lbs) did not vary significantly from 2011 and may likely not vary as much, we assumed it to be the same in 2019. This means that out of a total of 235.2 lbs per capita (i.e., 220.5 + 14.7 = 235.2) of meat consumed, the share of chicken consumption in 2019 will be about 39% (i.e., [(93.7 / 235.2) * 100] = about 39%).

In the first part, the share of chicken consumption in 2018 was about 40%. Hence, the year-on-year rate of this share from 2018 to 2019 is 2.56% (calculated using online CAGR calculator). If we assume this growth (2.56%) to remain constant from 2019 to 2025, then the share of chicken consumption by 2025 will be about 47% (calculated using an online CAGR calculator).

Using the share (47%) of chicken consumption by 2025 as a proxy to the market share of chicken, the projected market size of canned chicken in 2025 will be about $1.741 billion (i.e., 47% * $3.705 billion = $1.741 billion).
Therefore, with the size of the US canned chicken market in 2018 as $1.092 billion and $1.741 billion by 2025, the projected growth rate/CAGR for the US canned chicken market from 2018 to 2025 is 6.89%.

THE GROWTH RATE BASED ON THE SECOND ESTIMATE FOR THE U.S. CANNED AND PRESERVED CHICKEN MARKET SIZE

From the first part of this project, "the U.S. market size for all types of non-refrigerated canned and preserved chicken is estimated to be around $5.896 billion (excluding preserved chicken products that are chilled or frozen)." The base year was 2019. Hence, we used it in calculating the historical and projected growth rates.

  • THE HISTORICAL GROWTH RATE FROM 2014-2019

According to an IBIS World report, the US market size for processed meat in 2019 was $222 billion, with a growth rate of -1.7%, a decline from 2014 to 2019. Therefore, the market size in 2014 was about $241.872 billion (calculated with an online CAGR calculator).

To find the share of processed meat, we uncovered a report published by Business Wire which showed that the canned/preserved meat and meat products (excluding preserved chicken products that are chilled or frozen) held 6.64% share of the processed meat market in 2016. In the absence of any other data, we assumed that this share was the same even in 2014. Moreover, it has one of the least shares and may not change significantly. Therefore, the share of canned/preserved meat and meat products in 2014 was about $16.060 billion (i.e., 6.64% * $241.872 billion = $16.060 billion).

Next, we narrowed this down to the 2014 size of canned/preserved chicken. Recalling that the US share of chicken consumption in 2014 was earlier calculated as 39%. By proxy, the estimated market size for canned/preserved chicken in 2014 was about $6.363 billion (i.e., 39% * $16.060 billion = $6.363 billion).

Therefore, with the size of the US canned/preserved chicken (excluding frozen or chilled chicken) in 2014 as $6.363 billion and $5.896 billion in 2019, the historical growth rate/CAGR for the US canned/preserved chicken market from 2014 to 2019 was -1.51 (calculated using a CAGR calculator).

  • THE PROJECTED GROWTH RATE FROM 2019 TO 2025

From the first part of this project, the US size of canned/preserved meat and meat products was calculated to be about $14,740,800,000 or $14.740 billion, with 2019 as the base year. However, according to a report published by Business Wire, this market is projected to see a growth of 3% from 2017 to 2021. Assuming this growth to remain constant in 2019 through 2025, then the processed meat market in 2025 will worth about $17.6 billion (calculated using a CAGR calculator).

Next, to determine the share of canned/preserved chicken by 2025, we recalled that we had earlier calculated the share of chicken consumption by 2025 as 47%. By proxy, the estimated market size for canned/preserved chicken by 2015 will be $8.272 billion (i.e., 47% * $17.6 billion = $8.272 billion)

Therefore, having that the size of canned/preserved chicken (with the exclusion of frozen/chilled chicken) in 2019 is $5.896 billion and the projected size by 2025 is $8.272 billion, the growth rate is 5.81% within the projected time frame.

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In conclusion, the US canned chicken market saw a growth rate of 5.62% from 2014 to 2018 and is projected to grow by 6.89% from 2018 to 2025. On the other hand, the US canned/preserved chicken (excluding frozen or chilled chicken) saw growth of -1.51, a decline from 2014 to 2019 but expected to grow by 5.81% between 2019 and 2025.
Sources
Sources

From Part 02
Quotes
  • "The U.S. market size for canned chicken specifically is estimated to be around $1.092 billion, while the U.S. market size for all types of non-refrigerated canned and preserved chicken is estimated to be around $5.896 billion (excluding preserved chicken products that are chilled or frozen)."
Quotes
  • "The U.S. canned foods market size was estimated at USD 16.35 billion in 2017."
  • "The demand in the U.S. is estimated to be valued at USD 22.23 billion by 2025."