Market Size - Shelf Stable Meat: Chicken
The U.S. market size for canned chicken specifically is estimated to be around $1.092 billion, while the U.S. market size for all types of non-refrigerated canned and preserved chicken is estimated to be around $5.896 billion (excluding preserved chicken products that are chilled or frozen). Below, you will find a deep dive of our findings and methodology.
To tackle this project, we first began by surveying the existing landscape of publicly available data concerning the market size of canned and preserved chicken in the United States across various market reports, surveys, industry reports, government websites, food and agriculture organizations, and trusted media articles. However, we were unable to locate any direct data that specifically shows the market size of 'shelf-stable chicken', canned chicken, or other preserved and non-refrigerated types of chicken. Overall, the vast majority of available information related to this topic talks about canned or processed meats or poultry in general rather than providing details specific to the chicken segments of these markets. Despite this lack of data, we were able to creatively pull together existing data to provide two estimates for the market size of shelf-stable chicken in the United States. The methodology used to carry out these estimates has been woven into the sections below.
*Please note that in some cases, some slightly older data was relied upon for these estimates as useful data overall was lacking. However, all the data used was published within the past three years.
ESTIMATE 1: the u.s. canned chicken market size is around $1.092 billion
To come up with an estimate for this market size, we first focused on trying to estimate the market size of canned chicken specifically, as this data seemed to be more readily available than data concerned other types of non-refrigerated and preserved/shelf-stable chicken. To do so, we first learned that the overall canned foods market in the U.S. is valued around $16.35 billion, as of 2017. Based on a visual graph published by Grand View Research, it appears that canned meat makes up about one-sixth of this market, or around 16.7% (100 / 6 = about 16.7). This means that the market size for canned meat specifically is around $2,730,450,000, or ($16.35 billion x 100) / 16.7 = 2,730,450,000.
Next, we set out to understand the market share of chicken within the canned meat market. As none of the resources we analyzed had this data available, we relied on a proxy by triangulating the share of chicken consumed within the U.S. meat market overall. In doing so, we uncovered data from the National Chicken Council which shows that in 2018 Americans ate 93.5 lbs of chicken per capita and a total of 218.8 pounds of all red meat and poultry combined per capita. Additionally, in 2016 they ate 14.7 lbs of fish (2016 was the last year reported for fish according to data from the National Chicken Council). This equals a total of 233.5 lbs of meat eaten per capita (or, 218.8 + 14.7 = 233.5), of which, chicken makes up approximately 40% of total meat consumption, or (93.5 x 100) / 233.5 = about 40.
Using this share of chicken as a proxy and combining it with the overall market size for canned meat, we estimated the market size of canned chicken in the United States is around $1,092,180,000 (or, 40% of $2,730,450,000 = $1,092,180,000).
ESTIMATE 2: the U.s. canned and preserved chicken market size is around $5.896 billion
Although our first estimate was solid in terms of calculating a market size for canned chicken specifically, we felt that limiting the focus to only canned goods was too narrow of a scope to sufficiently analyze the topic of 'shelf-stable' chicken, as we imagine there to be other forms of non-refrigerated, self-stable chicken products that aren't canned, such as those that come in a pouch, for example. Therefore, we decided to also come up with a second estimate that would take a broader look at this topic; from the perspective of processed meat overall.
In doing so, we first located a 2017 market report which shows that the processed meat market in the U.S. is divided into the following four key segments:
This data proved to be extremely useful in our triangulation as it allowed us to isolate the non-refrigerated segment of preserved/processed (i.e. shelf-stable) meat products, which has a share of around 6.64%, according to the data above. The market size for processed meat in the U.S. overall is around $222 billion as of 2019 according to IBIS World. This means that the U.S. market size for non-refrigerated canned and preserved meat is about $14,740,800,000 or, (222 billion x 6.64)/100 = 14,740,800,000.
Lastly, we needed to isolate this market size down to the chicken segment specifically. Earlier in this report, we calculated that chicken makes up 40% of total U.S. meat consumption. Given this, the estimated market size for non-refrigerated canned and preserved chicken in the United States is around $5,896,320,000 or, (14,740,800,000 x 40) / 100 = 5,896,320,000.