San Francisco Bay Area Housing Market

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Part
01

San Francisco Bay Area Housing Market

In the findings below, we included the information we provided from our initial hour of research and referenced each such data point. Additionally, we provided future projections for home ownership and home rental over the next five years in the San Francisco Bay Area and East Bay, demographics of residents in those regions from 2010 to present, future predictions about the demographics of residents in those regions over the next five years, economic growth data pertaining to those regions from 2010 to present, and projections about future economic growth in those regions over the next five years.

Home Ownership in East Bay and the San Francisco Bay Area From 2010-2020

  • The below insights in this section (except for the last two, which are new) are the ones we provided during our initial hour of research.
  • Among the Bay Area counties of San Francisco, San Mateo, Contra Costa, Marin, and Alameda, the home ownership rate during Q2 2019 was 51.7%, which was the lowest dating back to 2012. In 2018, the home ownership rate among those counties was 56.4%.
  • According to a December 2019 article, "38 percent of [San Francisco] homes are occupied by their owners." That percentage was the lowest among all California counties.
  • Contra Costa and Alameda are the counties that comprise East Bay.
  • The following are the approximate home ownership rates by year (2010-2018 (the years available)) for Contra Costa County in East Bay: 2010 (70.6%), 2011 (69.3%), 2012 (67.4%), 2013 (66%), 2014 (65%), 2015 (64.6%), 2016 (64.2%), 2017 (65.4%), and 2018 (65.9%).
  • The following are the approximate home ownership rates by year (2010-2018 (the years available)) for Alameda County in East Bay: 2010 (59%), 2011 (58.1%), 2012 (57%), 2013 (56.2%), 2014 (55.6%), 2015 (55.2%), 2016 (55.1%), 2017 (55.4%), and 2018 (55.5%).
  • From 2010 to 2019, rent "in the [San Francisco] Bay Area" increased 70%.
  • The price of a home in San Francisco from 2010 to 2019 increased by 95%.
  • In Q1 2020, the homeownership rate in San Francisco County was 51.2%. For comparison, that rate was 52.9% in Q4 2019 and 52.8% in Q1 2019.
  • The estimated "year-over-year rent growth" for San Francisco in 2020 is -1.6%.
  • As of November 2018, 81% of homes in San Francisco had a value at or above $1 million. In November 2017, 67.3% of homes in the city were worth such.

Future Projections For Home Ownership and Home Rental Over the Next Five Years in the San Francisco Bay Area and East Bay

  • We could only find future projections for home ownership and home rental over the next five years for the San Francisco Bay Area, which are provided below.
  • With regard to San Francisco, over "60% of the population is estimated to rent" homes by 2025.
  • According to a May 2020 article, by 2023, there is projected to be a 50% decrease in the price of homes in San Francisco.
  • In March 2021, it's projected that the average price of a home in San Francisco will be $1.41 million.
  • According to Yardi Matrix, "year-over-year rent growth will reach 4.2% in San Francisco in 2021."
  • By August 2025, $1,588,465 is the projected, average home price within San Francisco.
  • The goal for housing growth in the San Francisco Bay Area between 2015 and 2023 called for an additional "188,000 housing units", which equates to 23,500 each year.
  • According to an August 2020 article from Norada Real Estate Investments, home prices in San Francisco could fall by 2.3% over the next year.

Demographics of Residents in the San Francisco Bay Area and East Bay From 2010-Present

1. San Francisco Bay Area

  • In January 2020, the population in San Francisco rose by 6,700.
  • According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the following were the approximate percentages of the City of San Francisco's population by race, as of July 2019: Caucasian (46.7%), Asian (34.2%), Hispanic/Latino (15.2%), African American (5.2%), Alaska Native/American Indian (0.3%), and Pacific Islander/Native Hawaiian (0.3%).
  • From 2014 to 2018, 34.4% of San Francisco's population consisted of foreign-born individuals.
  • The average household size in San Francisco from 2014-2018 was 2.36.
  • Among San Francisco's population 25 years of age or older from 2014-2018, 57.1% at least had a Bachelor's degree.
  • From 2014-2018, the "median household income" in San Francisco was $104,552.

2. East Bay

  • Since there are two counties that comprise East Bay (Contra Costa and Alameda), we provided county-level demographic insights below.

A. Contra Costa County

  • In Contra Costa County, the following were the approximate percentages (according to the U.S. Census Bureau) of the county's population by race, as of July 2019: Caucasian (65.1%), Hispanic/Latino (26%), Asian (18.3%), African American (9.5%), Alaska Native/American Indian (1%), and Pacific Islander/Native Hawaiian (0.6%).
  • From 2014 to 2018, 25% of Contra Costa County's population consisted of foreign-born individuals.
  • The average household size in Contra Costa County from 2014-2018 was 2.86.
  • Among Contra Costa County's population 25 years of age or older from 2014-2018, 41.7% at least had a Bachelor's degree.
  • From 2014-2018, the "median household income" across Contra Costa County was $93,712.

B. Alameda County

  • In Alameda County, the following were the approximate percentages (according to the U.S. Census Bureau) of the county's population by race, as of July 2019: Caucasian (49.3%), Asian (32.3%), Hispanic/Latino (22.3%), African American (11%), Alaska Native/American Indian (1.1%), and Pacific Islander/Native Hawaiian (0.9%).
  • From 2014 to 2018, 32.4% of Alameda County's population consisted of foreign-born individuals.
  • The average household size in the county from 2014-2018 was 2.81.
  • Among Alameda County's population 25 years of age or older from 2014-2018, 46% at least had a Bachelor's degree.
  • From 2014-2018, the "median household income" across Alameda County was $92,574.

Future Predictions About the Demographics of Residents in East Bay and the San Francisco Bay Area Over the Next Five Years

  • All but one of the demographic data points we found regarding the next five years pertained to the San Francisco Bay Area. Due to the limited availability of future demographic predictions for the San Francisco Bay Area and East Bay, we had to slightly expand the range of years beyond the next five years in some instances.

Economic Growth in the San Francisco Bay Area and East Bay From 2010-Present

1. San Francisco Bay Area

  • Median income in San Francisco rose 61% from 2010 to 2019 (previously provided in our initial research, so we did not count that toward one of the 5-7 additional insights we provided in this section).
  • In November 2019, the San Francisco Bay Area gained "3,900 nonfarm payroll jobs."
  • The following are San Francisco's unemployment rates from 2010-2020: June 2010 (8.9%), June 2011 (8.4%), June 2012 (7.1%), June 2013 (5.8%), June 2014 (4.4%), June 2015 (3.8%), June 2016 (3.4%), June 2017 (3.1%), June 2018 (2.6%), June 2019 (2.3%), and June 2020 (12.5%).

2. East Bay

  • Between March 2018 and March 2019, East Bay employment for non-farm jobs increased by approximately 18,000 jobs, which equated to a 1.5% increase in employment. For comparison, the increase in employment throughout the State of California during that same time period was 1.4%. Those three statistics were previously provided during our initial research, so we did not count any of them toward the 5-7 additional insights we provided in this section.
  • In November 2019, East Bay lost 1,600 jobs mainly in the construction and technology fields.
  • The following were the unemployment rates in Contra Costa County from 2010-2020: June 2010 (11%), June 2011 (10.7%), June 2012 (9.4%), June 2013 (7.9%), June 2014 (6.2%), June 2015 (5.2%), June 2016 (4.7%), June 2017 (4%), June 2018 (3.5%), June 2019 (3.2%), and June 2020 (13.4%).

Future Economic Growth in the San Francisco Bay Area and East Bay Over the Next Five Years

1. San Francisco Bay Area

  • According to a January 2020 article, San Francisco's GDP is projected to increase by 2.7% annually (on average) from 2020-2023.
  • San Francisco's GDP is predicted to total $0.71 trillion by 2025.
  • Unemployment rate projections for San Francisco have been estimated as follows: Q4 2021 (8.2%), Q4 2022 (5.5%), Q4 2023 (4.4%), Q4 2024 (4.4%), and Q4 2025 (4.5%).
  • According to Citigroup's "Hot Spots 2025[:] Benchmarking the future competitiveness of cities" report, San Francisco is predicted to be "the fifth most competitive city in the US" and the 18th most competitive of all global cities analyzed in the report. For comparison, San Francisco's ranking for such in 2012 was 17th among the global cities analyzed in the report.

2. East Bay

  • In Alameda County, "real per capita personal income" is projected to increase to approximately $75,000 in 2025, up from approximately $70,000 in 2020.
  • In Contra Costa County, "real per capita personal income" is projected to increase to approximately $80,000 in 2025, up from approximately $75,000 in 2020.
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