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What was the sales revenue for dried pasta made in and imported from Italy, sold in grocery stores or US based online markets in the United States in 2016?
Hi there, and thanks for asking Wonder! I understand you'd like to know the 2016 US sales revenue for imported, Italian dried pasta, specific to the grocery and online retail markets. After exhaustive research through academic databases, corporate websites, market research reports, government reports databases, and reputable media sites, I have determined that a direct answer to your question is not available in public resources, largely because the market sizing for the US pasta market is not segmented to the detail that you have requested. However, I did learn that the US accounted for 11% of Italy's pasta export in 2015. Based on this and other supporting data, I have estimated the 2016 market size for your target market to be less than $174M. Below you'll find my methodology and research findings.
METHODOLOGY
I began my research by searching for a direct revenue statistic in Italian and US government databases, statistical data sites such as Statista, and media sites. This research generated no relevant results. Next, I searched paid market research reports for the US pasta market and the Italian export pasta market, but none of these reports provided the segmentation you requested, even behind paywalls. The most relevant information I found from this search was the CAGR for the global pasta market through 2020.
I then directed my search path toward searching for information which would help us triangulate an estimation, including Italian exports data and the dry pasta market share in the US. This research provided some information about the US market share for Italian pasta exports (all categories), as well as statistics on US consumption of pasta and the market size of dry pasta sales in the US. There was no available information more recent than 2015.
HELPFUL FINDINGS
While I was not able to provide a direct, accurate answer with publicly available resources, I did find sufficient information which allows us to calculate a rough estimate of the market size. Data for this estimation ranges from 2011-2016; but for the purposes of our estimation, we will assume that the missing, assumed or correlating data is static between these five years.
ESTIMATED US MARKET SIZE
1. In 2014, the US held 11% of the Italian pasta export market, which was valued at $2.63B USD. However, my research indicates that the larger Italian companies also manufacture non-traditional Italian noodles, such as Asian-style noodles. Additionally, there is no available breakout of fresh versus dried pasta. Therefore, once we have our estimation, we can reasonably assume that the specific market size that you have requested is smaller than our estimated figure.
CALCULATION: 11% X 2.63B = $289M
ASSUMPTION: We can reasonably assume that the US sales revenue for imported, Italian dried pasta, specific to the grocery and online retail markets, and specific to traditional Italian-style pasta was less than $289M in 2014/2015.
2. I also learned that the projected CAGR for the global pasta market for 2016-2020 is 3.73%. If we assume that the CAGR for the global market in 2015-2016 was similar to the projection for 2016-2020, and we assume that the specific market segment you are interested in grew concurrent with the global pasta market, we can calculate the 2016 market size as follows:
CALCULATIONS:
$289M x 0.0373 = $1M
$289M + $1M = $290M
ASSUMPTION: We can assume that the market size for the specific market segment you have requested is less than $290M in 2016.
3. Lastly, I discovered an incomplete set of data which indicates that the US dry pasta market was valued at "2.84 billion U.S dollars in 2011. The chilled/fresh pasta retail value was projected to reach 0.34 billion U.S. dollars in 2016." If we assume that these statistics are relatively equivalent (i.e., ignore the difference of 5 years, which will likely introduce some difference in relative percentage), we can also assume that the US dry pasta market is roughly 60% of the US pasta market as a whole.
CALCULATION: 34M / 2.84B = 0.597 ≈ 60%
If we further assume that the dry-to-fresh ratio is equivalent between the Italian imported market and the total US pasta market, we can estimate the dry Italian imported pasta market for 2016 as follows:
CALCULATION: $290M x 60% = $174M
There is still the factor of Italian companies manufacturing and exporting non-traditional Italian-style pastas, plus the lack of data on the breakout between wholesale and retail imports, so we will continue to assume that the actual market size for your target market is smaller than $174M for 2016.
CONCLUSION
To wrap it up: although extensive research indicates that no direct statistics for this market exist in public resources, I was able to calculate that this specific market in 2016 was likely smaller than $174M USD. Thanks so much for asking Wonder, and please let us know if there is anything else we can research for you!