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Part
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Physician Respondent Overstatement
Two additional scientific studies were located that share the margin for adjustment when looking at physician respondent overstatement. Taking all the research into account, the range is from 33.3%-50%, although every industry article and scientific research warned of the possibility of extremes in either direction.
Research Strategy
To locate additional data points surrounding physician respondent overstatement, scientific studies and industry papers were researched. While we able to locate two additional data points, there were no other reliable studies or articles that shared this information. Most of the studies that discussed pharmaceutical market research were focused on the relationship between marketing and physician adoption of a certain drug. None of the data points addressed physician specialists, but focused on all physicians.
During research, some interesting research was located that talked about best practices surrounding pharmaceutical market research. These have been shared below in the additional reading section.
Initial Research Data Points
Results from initial research have been included for continuity.
- Discrepancy between preference share (the market share that primary market research estimates) and actual market share is often 50% or higher, according to Reuters.
- Pharma Voice states in a white paper that nine out of 10 forecasts for newly launched brands differ from the in-market results by at least plus or minus 30%.
- The standard approach to adjust primary market research is to use a rule of thumb, wherein forecasters dock a standard amount like 33.3 or 50% from preference share so that it more closely resembles market share.
Science Direct- Demand Forecasting in Pharmaceutical Supply Chains: A Case Study
- According to research completed in 2018, benchmarking studies for the pharmaceutical industry is the most common type of forecasting (82.1%).
- These simple methods have error rates around 40%.
Pharmaceutical Commercial Forecasting: Distilling Insights from Primary Research
- Triangle Insights states that there is a standard research "haircut" applied to account for bias. They state 50% as a standard figure. Or, some "chop" based on a top-two box score.
- They go on to state that arbitrary standard haircuts might not be appropriate for every market study, considering each new medicine has multiple factors to consider.
Analysis of Research
- Research shows that the adjustments that most pharma market researchers used ranges from 33.3%-50%. Reuters states that many times it is above 50%. Since there is discrepancy between the scientific and industry research, it would seem best to use a range, while keeping in mind that unknown factors could always change these results.
Further Reading
- Pharmaceutical Commercial Forecasting: Distilling Insights from Primary Research- This article suggests a method of forecasting that takes multiple factors and then provides and adjusted market estimate.
- Forecasting For the Pharmaceutical Industry- This research presents over 150 pages of research on the best ways to forecast pharmaceuticals. While they did not mention overstatement rates, there are many useful topics discussed. An original copy may be downloaded here.