Pet Food Research - Growth of Natural Dry Pet Food Market for the US.
While the historical growth of the natural dry pet food market in the United States is not readily available in the public domain, there were relevant sales figures that enabled us to estimate it. The natural dry pet food sales of Blue Buffalo Pet Products, Inc., the leader holding a third of the natural pet food market in the United States, indicate that the natural dry pet food market in the country had likely expanded at a CAGR of 16.2% in the past five years. Between 2013 and 2016, the company's natural dry pet food sales had risen from USD 591.5 million to USD 928.9 million.
sALES OF NATURAL DRY PET FOOD IN THE UNITED STATES
As shown on page 28 of market research firm GfK's 2016 presentation, natural dry dog food accounted for 65% of dry dog food sales in the United States in 2015, while natural dry cat food accounted for 38% of dry cat food sales. Given that dry dog food and dry cat food accounted for 56% and 12% of the USD 24-billion United States pet food market in 2015 as can be observed from pages 8 and 13 of the presentation, we can estimate that, in 2015, sales of natural dry dog food and natural dry cat food were USD 8.736 billion and USD 1.0944 billion, respectively, with the two amounts totaling USD 9.8304 billion.
Natural dry dog food: USD 24 billion x 0.56 x 0.65 = USD 8.736 billion
Natural dry cat food: USD 24 billion x 0.12 x 0.38 = USD 1.0944 billion
Natural dry dog/cat food: USD 8.736 billion + USD 1.0944 billion = USD 9.8304 billion
This USD 9.8304-billion sum does not tally, however, with the sales figures GfK presented on page 25 of its presentation. On said page, Gfk reported that natural pet food sales in the United States grew from USD 3.6 billion in 2011 to USD 5.4 billion in 2015 at a CAGR we estimated to be 10.7%. It is not possible for natural dry dog/cat food sales to be greater than natural pet food sales.
(USD 5.4 billion/USD 3.6 billion)^(1/4) — 1 = 10.7%
On the same page, the firm reported that natural pet food accounted for 69% of pet food sales in the United States in 2015. Given that pet food sales in the country in 2015 was USD 24 billion as shown on page 8, natural pet food sales must have been USD 16.56 billion instead of just USD 5.4 billion.
USD 24 billion x 0.69 = USD 16.56 billion
Unfortunately, we were unable to locate sales figures that we could compare the 2015 natural dry dog/cat food sales with. Merchant banking firm Brooks, Houghton & Company, Inc. released last year a report on the United States pet industry, which the firm estimated at USD 27 billion, but the only product segmentation the firm provided was as follows: natural and organic pet food and treats (31.3%), dry dog food (30.3%), dry cat food (12.4%), dog treats (8.7%), wet cat food (8.2%), wet dog food (7.1%), and cat treats (2.0%).
Analysts of market research publisher Packaged Facts, on the other hand, estimated natural pet food sales in the United States in 2016 at USD 8.2 billion, around a fourth of the pet food market in the country. They estimated as well that the natural pet food market in the country grew at a CAGR of 12.1% during the period 2012-2016.
ESTIMATED HISTORICAL GROWTH OF THE NATURAL DRY PET FOOD MARKET IN THE UNITED STATES
Since our search through reports and articles on the United States pet food industry returned very limited information that is specific to the natural dry pet food segment, we looked for key players in the natural pet food market and checked their financials. We learned that Blue Buffalo Pet Products, Inc. is "the leading natural pet food company in the United States" and is "the leader in wholesome, natural pet food, with about a one third market share in this category." It sells dog and cat food made with natural ingredients such as whole meats, vegetables, and fruits. Also, even though it sells its products in four countries, namely, the United States, Canada, Japan, and Mexico, most of its sales are generated in the United States. In fact, in 2016, only 4% of its sales came from Canada, Japan, and Mexico. All these characteristics make the company's financials very good indicators of the historical growth of the United States natural pet food market and its segments (i.e, dry and wet).
Thankfully, the company is a publicly traded company, so its financials are readily accessible. The company completed its IPO in 2015 only, so it has only two Form 10-K's, one for 2015 and one for 2016. From these forms, we learned the following information about the company's segments: (a) Dry Foods and (b) Wet Foods, Treats, and Other Products.
Net sales: USD 1,149.8 million
Dry Foods: USD 928.9 million (81% of net sales)
Wet Foods, Treats, and Other Products: USD 220.9 million (19% of net sales)
Net sales: USD 1,027.4 million
Dry Foods: USD 834.1 million (81% of net sales)
Wet Foods, Treats, and Other Products: USD 193.4 million (19% of net sales)
Net sales: USD 917.8 million
Dry Foods: USD 742.8 million (81% of net sales)
Wet Foods, Treats, and Other Products: USD 175.0 million (19% of net sales)
Net sales: USD 719.5 million
Dry Foods: USD 591.5 million (82% of net sales)
Wet Foods, Treats, and Other Products: USD 128.0 million (18% of net sales)
If we assume that the growth of the natural dry pet food segment of Blue Buffalo is representative of the growth of the natural dry pet food market in the United States, we can estimate from the sales figures that the historical CAGR of the natural dry pet food market in the United States is around 16.2% as shown in the computations below.
2013: USD 591.5 million
2014: USD 742.8 million
2015: USD 834.1 million
2016: USD 928.9 million
CAGR (2013-2016): (USD 928.9 million/USD 591.5 million)^(1/3) — 1 = 16.2%
A direct answer to your question could not be readily found in the public domain, but a number of sales figures permitted us to triangulate the answer. Based on our calculations, there is a good chance that the United States market for natural dry pet food had grown at a CAGR of 16.2% in the past five years. The natural dry pet food sales of Blue Buffalo Pet Products, Inc., the leader in the country's natural pet food space holding a third of the market, had soared to USD 928.9 million in 2016 from USD 591.5 million in 2013.