Parkinson's Disease Psychosis Sizing

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Parkinson's Disease Psychosis Sizing

The estimated market size for Parkinson's Disease Psychosis (PDP) treatment in the United States was $380 million as of 2016. In the same year, the number of U.S. patients that has Parkinson's disease psychosis was 400,000, or 40% of the total 1 million Parkinson's disease (PD) patients. The PDP population is expected to grow over 4% annually. By 2030, it is forecast that patients with PDP will reach 720,000 in the US.

According to Market Research, one major 'unmet need' pertaining to Parkinson's disease is the treatment of cognitive impairment or visual hallucinations and delusions for PD patients. These patients were prescribed atypical antipsychotic medications but reportedly to have serious side effects. In early 2016, Pimavanserin (Acadia Pharmaceuticals's NUPLAZID), was approved to treat PDP. This drug is the "first US Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved treatment for Parkinson’s disease psychosis." Nuplacid generated product sales of $17.3 million in 2016.

While there were no precompiled reports that could directly quote market size ($ value) for Parkinson's disease psychosis treatment or diagnosis in the United States, we were able to come up with an estimated figure using available statistics and data from industry reports, articles and annual reports. Below you will find more detailed calculations, estimations, and assumptions made to derive PDP's market size in the United States.

PARKINSON'S DISEASE PSYCHOSIS POPULATION

Statistics from few articles vary when it comes to the percentage of patients that experience psychosis. Some would quote 60%, some report would say 50% or 40%, and some reports 15-40%.

From Acadia Pharmaceutical's annual report in 2016, the company revealed that about 40% of the total 1 million Parkinson's disease patients in the United States was affected by psychosis disease. This report was also supported by Statista which revealed that in 2016, the total population of Americans with PDP was 400,000 as compared to 1 million with Parkinson's disease. By 2030, it is expected to reach 720,000. By using a CAGR calculator (initial value at 0.4 million, final value at 0.72 million and the number of years is 14), we could estimate that the PDP's population annual growth rate until 2030 is 4.29%.

2016 = 400,000
2017 = 400,000 * 1.0429 = 417,160
2018 = 417,160 * 1.0429 = 435,056
...
2030 = 720,000

PARKINSON'S DISEASE PSYCHOSIS COSTS

On average, according to NCBI report, costs associated with PDP patients were 2.1 times higher for a 12-months average treatment based on the conducted health resource utilization analysis.

From AJMC analysis, "all costs were higher for patients with PDP than for those with PD without psychosis and all-Medicare cohorts, with the highest cost differentials found in long-term care costs ($31,178 for PDP vs $14,461 for PD without psychosis), skilled nursing facility costs ($6601 for PDP vs $2067 for PD without psychosis), and inpatient costs ($10,125 for PDP vs $6024 for PD without psychosis)."

Analysis of the above report approves the earlier claim which states that PDP costs are more than 2 times higher than for average PD patient specific for the long-term care costs.

$31,178 / $14,461 = 2.16

MARKET SIZE ESTIMATE

According to MarketsandMarkets report, 50% of the $3.99 billion worth of Parkinson's disease treatment market in 2016 accounts for North America. That translates to about $1.995 billion [$3.99 billion*50%] market size. While there was no specific segment given for the United States, we used the North American market size to represent the US market. In this report, Acadia Pharmaceuticals (the first and leading company that manufactures PDP drug treatment) was included in the analysis, and thus, we safely assumed that the psychosis treatment was part or included in this market size.

Earlier, we have already identified that 40% (400,000 in population) of the total PD are PDP patients. Assuming that this % share is also identical to the total PD market size;

Estimated market size of PD patients including psychosis treatment
= 40% * $1.995 billion = $798 million

To estimate the market size specific for the psychosis treatment alone (excluding the value generated for average PD treatment); we divided the above market size with 2.1. We've learned from an earlier report that PDP treatment costs 2.1 times higher than average PD treatment.

Estimated market size specific for psychosis treatment
= $798 million/2.1
= $380 million

% share from total Parkinson's disease market in the US
= ($380 million/$1.995 billion)*100
= 19.05%

CONCLUSION

Parkinson's disease psychosis was estimated to worth $380 million in 2016. If the PDP patient's population is growing at 4.29%, then we can estimate that this market was worth $396 in 2017 [$380*1.0429]. In 2017, Americans with Parkinson's disease who also suffer from psychosis was 417,160 and will reach 720,000 by the year 2030.

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Sources