Key Takeaways

• Overpopulation isn't the cause of the lack of access to housing. In the US, there are 29 empty properties for every homeless person.
•  1.6 billion people live in slums. This comes with a lack of access to dignified housing, toilets, schools, healthcare, and more.
• If everyone in the world were to consume resources at the rate people in Canada, Luxembourg and the United States are, five earths would be needed.

Introduction

Problem with Overpopulation: High Urban Population Density Affects Living Standards

• Many analysts blame population growth for the growth in urban slums. Governance is also seen as the other key factor.
• The growth of India's population, for example, is seen as the main cause of the growth of its slums. Some 35% of India's population currently lives in slums. Rapid urbanization in the country has also seen a large population of so-called "unskilled" workers. That, in turn, is leading to unplanned urban areas, violence, pollution, disease, and extreme poverty.
• Habitat for Humanity blames population growth and urbanization for the growth of slums (informal settlements). Globally, 1.6 billion people live in slums.
• In the Khayelitsha slum in Cape Town, South Africa, five families share one toilet on average, and most people use bushes or open fields, which contributes to disease spread. The shelters people live in are unsafe and undignified, and people lack access to services. In Kibera slum, Nairobi, only a quarter of children go to school.

 

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Problem with Overpopulation: Large Cities Contaminate More

• Some cities are perceived to be overpopulated. Dense urban populations have different consumption patterns than rural residents. Urban areas consume much more food, energy, and durable goods than rural populations, per person.
• By 2030, 60% of the global population will live in cities, but cities account for 70% of carbon emissions.
• Rapidly growing cities that aren't accompanied by planning and resource allocation, can be unsustainable. Waste collection and management becomes difficult and impacts both living conditions and the environment. A higher concentration and number of cars, and higher traffic congestion lead to more air pollution.
• In Mexico City, there is so much traffic congestion that cars travel at an average speed of 32km/h (20 mph). It was once nominated the most polluted city in the world, but in 2021 ranked 917th most polluted city.
• The Population Media Centre argues that population growth leads to more consumption of products, food, transport, and energy, and that leads to ecological degradation. They cite a study by Wynes and Nicholas, which found that if a family had one fewer child, emissions would be reduced by 58.6 tonnes CO2 equivalent per year in wealthy countries.

Overpopulation as a Myth: Over-Consumption, Industrial Contamination Are Environmental Issues

• There is no correlation between population and consumption. Wealth and disposable income are the main determinants of excess consumption. A 2022 UNICEF report found that it is the world's richest countries (with lower population densities) that are responsible for environmental destruction. If everyone in the world were to consume resources at the rate people in Canada, Luxembourg and the United States are, five earths would be needed.
• The Sierra Club argues that resource consumption is unequal, and can't be blamed on overpopulation. The wealthiest half-billion people in the world (6.5% of the population) are responsible for 50% of the total carbon dioxide emissions.
• Similarly, 100 companies are responsible for 70% of global CO2 emissions, and Greenpeace argues the overpopulation argument detracts attention away from that responsibility and places the blame on individuals.
• Overpopulation arguments also put the blame on poorer countries, but a person among the richest 10% of Indians uses a quarter of the carbon of someone in the poorest half of the US.

Overpopulation as a Myth: Poverty is Caused by Inequality

• Some people blame overpopulation for causing hunger. However, global food production has outpaced population growth by an average of 1% per year since the late 1940s.
• Some 3.7 billion metric tons of food a year are required to ensure that everyone has enough food. However, currently, 4 billion metric tons of food are produced per year, with 1.3 billion tons going to waste. This suggests that supply-chain issues and inequality are the cause, rather than the size of the global population.
• Likewise, access to housing or living space is determined more by wealth, than population size. If the world's population moved to the state of Alaska, every individual would have access to nearly 3,500 square feet of space. There is enough housing space to go around, but the housing itself is unaffordable or inaccessible to many. In the US, almost 40 million people live in housing they can't afford. Globally, 200 million people are homeless, but there are 42 million empty homes (likely empty so speculators can profit from them), with those homes accommodating multiple people. There are 29 empty properties for every homeless person in the US.
• Despite the crowded conditions in cities, overall, living standards are higher in densely populated urban areas than in rural areas, as there is better access to health, water, sanitation, electricity, and employment.
• 95% of people in poorer countries live on the equivalent of less than $10 a day (where $10 is measured by what they could buy if they were in the United States). This is not caused by population figures, but rather biased regimes of international trade, finance, and taxation seeing at least ten times as much money flowing from poorer countries to the rich world than the other way as overseas aid.

 

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Research Strategy

Key Takeaways

• Manila is the most overpopulated city in the world with a population density of 119,600 persons per square mile or 46,178 persons per square kilometer. The main reasons for the city's overpopulation include rural poverty and the lack of opportunities in provinces which has forced many people to move to Metro Manila in hopes of a better future.
• Baghdad is in need of 70 hospitals and 4,000 schools to cope with its increasing population. Overpopulation has resulted in a high number of people living below the poverty line.
•  60% of Mumbai's population lives in slums without access to running water, electricity, and gas.

Introduction

Manila (Philippines)

• According to the World Population Review (also confirmed by the World Atlas), the most densely populated city in the world in 2022 is Manila, the capital of the Philippines. The Philippines is the 12th most populated country and has four out of ten of the world's most densely populated cities.
• Manila has a population density of 119,600 persons per square mile or 46,178 persons per square kilometer. Pateros and Mandaluyong (also in the Philippines) are second and third on the list with population densities of 94,400 and 90,460 respectively.
•  Rural poverty and the lack of opportunities in provinces force many people to move to Metro Manila in hopes of a better future. This has resulted in overpopulation and other issues such as "strained housing, infrastructure, and basic services being offered in the metro." In addition, the rise of informal settlements with houses made out of unsafe materials has increased the risk of natural disasters, further worsening the poverty levels of the marginalized sector.
• The Rappler (local news source) has reported that according to the 2020 census released by the Philippine Statistics Authority, the National Capital Region’s (i.e Metropolitan Manila) population growth declined over a five-year period from 2015-2020. The latest available findings show that there has been a gradual decline in the population growth rate during the past two decades from 1.78% in 2000 to 0.97% in 2020.
• The Commission on Population and Development has partly attributed the population decline to "pandemic-driven internal migrations that pushed many Filipinos to return to their provinces" as well as to the effectiveness of the government’s family planning program. With a targeted fertility rate of 2.1 and further promotion of modern contraceptives, it is expected that the growth rate will decrease further in the coming years.
• The government has also launched a community development program "to address the congestion issues in urban areas by developing countryside systems and providing better opportunities in provinces" so that Filipinos no longer have to move to urban cities for a better future.

Baghdad (Iraq)

• Based on the rankings of the World Population Review, Baghdad is the fourth most overpopulated city in the world with a population density of 85,140 per square mile.
• According to Al-Monitor (a Middle Eastern news source), Iraq has not conducted any comprehensive census since 1997. It states that the population of Baghdad has grown five-fold since five decades ago and that its population was more than 8 million in 2018. It further reports that "Baghdad alone has a population equal to that of the entire country five decades ago."
• The increasing population has resulted in higher demand for food, water, electricity, and housing. Combined with the rising unemployment rate, this has created an imbalance between the growing population and the availability of services.
• For instance, Baghdad has a shortage of 70 hospitals and 4,000 schools. In addition to the high number of people living below the poverty line, the city's overpopulation has resulted in traffic congestion in the streets that are no longer able to accommodate cars owned by citizens.
• It has been reported that the overpopulation in Iraq (including Baghdad) can be attributed to the "social culture that encourages marriage at a very young age, and the lack of interest in women’s education and integration in the labor market."

 

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• To address the overpopulation issue and help resolve the housing crisis in the city, the Iraqi government has initiated a project to build a new administrative city on the outskirts of Baghdad. The new city, named Al-Rafeel, will span an area of ​​165 square miles. The city's "recreational complexes (extending over 25 square miles) are expected to provide 75,000 housing units."

Mumbai (India)

• The fifth most overpopulated city in the world is Mumbai, India, with a population density of 83,660 per square mile.
• A Mumbai-centered news source (Citizen Matters) has reported that "Mumbai’s population growth is attributed to the influx of migrants due to the textile mill boom in the 1900s. By 1921, migrants made up about 84% of the city’s population."
• The article states that contrary to popular opinion that labor migration from other states is an increasing and uncontrollable issue for the city, census data shows that the rate of migration has slowed down during the past two decades. This is due to the high cost of living in the city as well as the decrease in economic opportunities.

 

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• However, 60% of Mumbai's population lives in slums without access to running water, electricity, and gas. The living conditions in these slums are so low that "large pipes are used as footpaths because the actual footpaths are too littered to walk on."
• To address the issue of overpopulated slums in Mumbai, the Slum Rehabilitation Authority is currently in the process of converting slums into high-rise buildings. It has been reported that 65% of the apartments will be offered to the people living in slums and the remaining 35% for commercial purposes.
• According to the Indian Express, the country's experimentation with population control goes back to the years preceding its independence. It was among the first countries to introduce an official program to reduce population growth. However, experts currently believe that a population control bill or any policy that enforces the number of children a couple can have are unnecessary since growth rates are now under control.

Research Strategy