Part
01
of five
Part
01
Online Grocery - Historic and Projected Market Size
We provide the market size of the U.S. online grocery industry from 2013 to 2023. We also calculate the size of the click & collect segment and the home delivery segment for each year except of 2013 and 2014, as we found no data or a base line for a successful triangulation. For these years, we provide the overall market size of the U.S. online grocery industry. Find all the data provided in the attached spreadsheet, and our full triangulation process below.
TRIANGULATION
As the report doesn't list years 2022 and 2023, and we found no other reports that weren't behind a paywall to provide these projections, we use the growth rate between the years 2017 and 2021 to provide the most accurate growth rate (based on five years, instead of just two).
The growth rate for the period 2017-2021 is:
$29.7 billion — $14.2 billion = $15.5 billion
The growth rate for just one year is:
$15.5 billion / 5 years = $3.1 billion
Using this triangulation we apply the growth rate to years 2022 and 2023:
$29.7 billion + $3.1 billion = $32.8 billion
Market size for year 2022 is projected to be $32.8 billion.
$32.8 billion + $3.1 billion = $35.9 billion
Market size for year 2022 is projected to be $35.9 billion.
Furthermore, we find a report specifying that click-and-collect market size grew from 15% in 2015 to 23% in 2016 compared to the overall online grocery market in the US. This means each year, the size over the click-and collect market grows 8%. While Nielsen's report is applicable for the global market, we use it to confirm that the click-and-collect market grows at a rapid constant rate as stated above, and is projected to dominate the online grocery segment by 2025. Therefore, we use the annual growth rate of 8% to calculate market share, and then market size of the click-and-collect market.
We know the click-and-collect market was 15% in 2015, and 23% in 2016. We can triangulate the rest using the 8% annual growth rate:
15% market share of click-and-collect market in 2015
23% market share of click-and-collect market in 2016
31% market share of click-and-collect market in 2017
39% market share of click-and-collect market in 2018
47% market share of click-and-collect market in 2019
55% market share of click-and-collect market in 2020
63% market share of click-and-collect market in 2021
71% market share of click-and-collect market in 2022
79% market share of click-and-collect market in 2023
We do not apply the annual growth rate backwards for years 2013 and 2014 as it would lead to a negative market share of -1% in 2013. We were also unable to source sufficient data to say just how popular the click-and-collect segment was in those years. Numerous reports exist for the UK and European markets, however reports that list segmented statistics are behind paywalls for the US.
We use above triangulated market shares to calculate market size of the click-and-collect segment from the total market size:
0.15 x $10.1 billion = $1.52 billion in 2015
0.23 x $12 billion = $2.76 billion in 2016
0.31 x $14.2 billion = $4.4 billion in 2017
0.39 x $17.5 billion = $6.8 billion in 2018
0.47 x $22 billion = $10.34 billion in 2019
0.55 x $26 billion = $14.3 billion in 2020
0.63 x $29.7 billion = $18.7 billion in 2021
0.71 x $32.8 billion = $23.29 billion in 2022
0.78 x $35.9 billion = $28 billion in 2023
The last step is calculating the home delivery market size by deducting the market size of the click-and-collect segment from the total market size:
2015: $10.1 billion — $1.52 billion = $8.58 billion
2016: $12 billion — $2.76 billion = $9.24 billion
2017: $14.2 billion — $4.4 billion = $9.8 billion
2018: $17.5 billion — $6.8 billion = $10.7 billion
2019: $22 billion — $10.34 billion = $11.66 billion
2020: $26 billion — $14.3 billion = $11.7 billion
2021: $29.7 billion — $18.7 billion = $11 billion
2022: $32.8 billion — $23.29 billion = $9.51 billion
2023: $35.9 billion — $28 billion = $7.9 billion