Online Grocery Market Sizing

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Part
01

U.S. Online Grocery Market Size

The market size of the US online grocery industry for 2012, 2017 and 2022 are $6 billion, $13 billion and $29.86 billion respectively. The detailed breakdown of the overall market is presented in the attached spreadsheet.

Market size

I was able to find the pre-compiled information about the market size of online grocery industry for 2012 and 2017. But, the projected market size of the industry for the year 2022 was not available. However, I was able to triangulate the data using some other pre-compiled data.
According to Statista, the market size for online grocery industry was $6 billion for 2012 and had forecast the market to reach $14.2 billion in 2017. However, 2017 report of IBIS World stated that total market size of US grocery market was only $13 billion for the year 2017, increasing with a CAGR of 10.1% since 2012. In 2017, IGD stated that total market size of US grocery market would be 1,722 billion by the year 2022 and the online market would be the fastest growing segment with a CAGR of 18.1% until the forecast period. I used this CAGR to calculate the market size of 2022 by using the formula,
"Future value = Present value*(1+Rate)^number of years"
Therefore, the estimated 2022 market size of online grocery industry in the US = ${13*(1+0.181)^5} billion
= $29.86 billion.
The leading online grocery retailers in US are Amazon and Walmart. The top reason for the revenue growth of online grocery industry is the increased internet usage. Online grocery retailers are using a number of tactics like discount sales on their website or free home delivery to attract customers.

Market Segmentation

Unfortunately, after extensive research, a clear breakdown into the home delivery segment and the click & collect segment for the US could not be found. However, a global breakdown was found. Since segmentation detail was not available for the US alone, I used the same segmentation details to provide the overall breakdown of the online grocery industry.
A research published in 2017 states 28% of global online grocery shopping used the option of "delivery to home"; while 37% used a variety of "pick up" options (including 15% pick up at the store; 11% drive-through pick up, and 11% pick up curbside outside the store).
Using the above information, the market size for 2012, 2017, and 2022 are as follow:

2012 MARKET

The 2012 market share of "delivery to home" shopping for online grocery = ${6*0.28} billion = $1.68 billion
The 2012 market share of "pick and collect" shopping for online grocery = ${6*0.37} billion = $2.22 million

2017 MARKET

The 2017 market share of "delivery to home" shopping for online grocery = ${13*0.28} billion = $3.64 billion
2017 market share of "pick and collect" shopping for online grocery = ${13*0.37} billion = $4.81 billion

2022 MARKET

The 2022 market share of "delivery to home" shopping for online grocery = ${29.86*0.28} billion = $8.36 billion
The 2022 market share of "pick and collect" shopping for online grocery = ${29.86*0.37} billion = $11.04 billion

Conclusion

The summary of our overall findings is provided in the attached spreadsheet.
Sources
Sources