Market Size of Oil Sales in the U.S.
Based on a triangulation of publicly available industry data, the U.S. market for motor oil sales to retail stores and oil change outlets is worth an estimated $6.31 billion as of 2017. This is nearly two-thirds of the total motor oil market of $9 billion. You'll find a deep dive of my research below.
After an exhaustive search through industry reports, market research, and other high-quality sources, I could not locate a preexisting figure for the market size of motor oil sold to retail stores and oil change outlets that was free and publicly available. In fact, I could not even find market research on the overall motor oil market in the U.S. that was not behind a paywall. However, I was able to triangulate an estimate for this market size based on available data.
Based on this market research report, the US accounts for about 9% of global automotive sales; $6.9 million out of $78.6 million. If we assume that this indicates that the U.S. represents roughly 9% of the global automotive market overall, we can then assume that U.S. motor oil sales are about 9% of the global total, as well.
The total global market for motor oil is worth $100 billion as of 2017, according to this market research report. Based on the above assumptions, we can estimate that the share for the U.S. is $9 billion (9% of $100 billion).
Although I could not find any research indicating the share of the motor oil market made up by wholesale sales to retail stores and oil change outlets, I did find one market research report indicating that the total sales of motor oil at automotive aftermarket chains in the US amounted to $2.6 billion in 2015. This industry report from Capgemini defines the automotive aftermarket: "The aftermarket encompasses all parts and services purchased for light- and heavy-duty vehicles after the original sale, including replacement parts, accessories, lubricants, appearance products and service repairs." Based on this, we can assume that the above figure of $2.6 billion for sales of motor oil at aftermarket stores accounts for direct-to-consumer sales, rather than to retail stores or oil change outlets.
Since this figure is from 2015, we can use the provided growth rate to bring it up to date. According to the same source, the market grew by 1.7% in 2015. If that same growth rate continued (and this other market research report on the automotive aftermarket implies that it did, indicating a 1.8% growth rate for 2016-2017), we can estimate a 2017 market size of $2.69 billion:
2.6 billion + 0.0442 = 2.6442 (2016)
2.6442 x 0.017 = 0.0449
2.6442 + 0.0449 = 2.689 (2017)
As we've calculated above, the total market for motor oil in the U.S. is $9 billion. If $2.69 billion of that is direct-to-consumer retail sales, then we an estimate that the remaining $6.31 billion is the total for sales to retail stores and oil change outlets.
To wrap up, the U.S. market size of sales of motor oil to retail stores and oil change outlets is an estimated $6.31 billion.