Part
01
of one
Part
01
What is the Nigeria market-size (TAM) and number of scans for radiology (CT, MRI, X-Ray, Ultrasound, etc.)
Hello! Thank you for asking about the size of the medical imaging (radiology) market in Nigeria. The best sources used to answer your question include government and industry reports and articles. After an exhaustive search, I found that detailed information on the medical imaging market in Nigeria is only available behind paywalls (in reports available for a fee). However, I was able to estimate a minimum number of pregnancy-related ultrasounds (2,752,404 ) and chest X-rays (4,859,274), as well as uncover other relevant data. A summary of my assumptions, calculations and findings follows.
OVERVIEW
Nigeria current population stands at 182.2 million and is expected to reach 217 million by 2025. The country's health care expenditures in 2014 (the most recent year for which data is available) was $20.857 billion ($217 per capita), representing 3.7% of the country's GDP.
As compared to Western standards, Nigeria's healthcare system is seriously lacking and unevenly distributed across the country. The system is overseen by government at federal, state and local levels. Yet, much of the infrastructure is outdated or inaccessible for most Nigerians, especially those of lesser means, as well as rural residents. (Those living in urban areas have 4x greater access to healthcare as compared to residents in rural areas).
As a result of poor quality healthcare, nearly 5,000 people travel outside of Nigeria each month for treatment (approximately $1-2 billion in treatment costs annually), with many seeking treatment in India. The top diagnoses for which Nigerians seek treatment abroad include major surgeries, heart ailments, orthopedics, cancer and organ transplants.
DIAGNOSTIC IMAGING MARKET
The global diagnostic imaging market was valued at $23.5 billion in 2015 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6% to reach $33.5 billion by 2021. Though data is not segmented by country, it's fair to say that the percentage attributable to Nigeria is relatively small as compared to its population. Radiologist are in short supply in the country, with an estimated 250-300 radiologists total, a ratio of 1 radiologist per 566,000 Nigerians.
ASSUMPTIONS/CALCULATIONS
I was able to determine the current costs for two types of most common scans are:
Public Healthcare Centers:
Private Healthcare Centers:
Weighted Average (Private expenditures account for 74.9% of healthcare costs):
Basic Chest Xray: 4325 * .749 + 1650 * (1-.749)=
3239 + 414 = 3653 NRN ($11.51)
Ultrasound: 5425 * .749 + 3600 * (1-.749) =
4063 +904 = 4967 NRN ($15.64)
ESTIMATING THE NUMBER OF ULTRASOUNDS
Using 2016 data for the annual number of births in Nigeria (37.3 births/1000 of population), I determined that the number of births are:
Assuming that 40.5 % result in at least one ultrasound (the percentage of Nigeria's births assisted by skilled personnel ), a rough estimate of maternal ultrasounds would be:
At a cost of:
2,752,404 * $15.64 = $43.048 million
ESTIMATING THE NUMBER OF CHEST X-RAYS
Using 2016 data for the annual number of deaths in Nigeria (12.7 deaths/1000 of population), I determined the number of deaths are:
Given that 21% of deaths in the country are attributable to lower respiratory infections or tuberculosis, I calculated:
.21 * 23,139,400 = 4,859,274 patients die from lower respiratory infections or tuberculosis each year. If each patient had one x-ray during the year, the cost would be:
4,859,274 * $11.51 = $55.93 million
Please note that these calculations do not include other types of medical scans (MRIs, CTs, etc.), nor do they include ultrasounds or x-rays necessitated by other medical conditions.
ACCESS TO HEALTHCARE
Uneven distribution of healthcare facilities, transportation challenges and conflict zones are major factors impacting Nigerians' access to healthcare. The National Population Commission (NPC) of Nigeria found that 73.7% of women aged 15 to 49 report at least one barrier to getting healthcare, including:
Further, a World Health Organization (WHO) report published in late 2016 indicates that 35% of over 700 health facilities in conflict-ridden northeastern Nigeria have been completely destroyed, and 29% are partially damaged. This region represents an even greater gap in healthcare accessibility, particularly of a preventative nature.
FACILITIES
There are 72 hospitals and medical centers in the city of Lagos, and 27 hospitals and medical centers in the city of Port Harcourt. One of the most prominent and well-respected radiology departments is located at the Lagos University Teaching Hospital (LUTH). In 2015, the department reportedly had 1 CT scanner, 1 MRI unit, 1 mammography machine, 1 non-digital radiographic unit and 4 ultrasound machines (of which only 2 were in working order).
As with other healthcare aspects, diagnostic radiology equipment is not evenly distributed across Nigeria. Much of the country's resources are located in its southwestern region, mostly in the Lagos area. There are about 50 CT units in Nigeria overall, of which roughly half are in Lagos.
In the private sector, radiology is delivered either through hospital-based practices or diagnostic radiology centers. Equipment at hospital-based practices are on par or worse than that at public hospitals. These practices primarily serve their inpatients, as outpatients from other hospitals are only referred under rare circumstances due to fear of competition.
Diagnostic centers are mostly privately owned, small radiology clinics with radiography, ultrasound and fluoroscopy capabilities. Over the past several years, there has been growth in exclusively entrepreneurial diagnostic centers in Nigeria. Mecure Diagnostics is the most prominent in this space, and is owned by an Indian businessman. Mecure also "offers diagnostics in both laboratory and ophthalmologic arenas." The prevalence of these facilities has driven down the price of exams in Nigeria, virtually eliminating competition from small, provider-owned centers.
Also competing in the medical diagnostics market is Clinix, a state of the art healthcare center offering "diagnostic radiology, dialysis, endoscopy, cardiac workups, ophthalmology and dentistry". Clinix is owned by a pharmacist and most of the radiologists are Indian. Together, Mecure and Clinix have 3 - 1.5 Tesla MR systems in the Lagos area. These centers are experiencing significant growth, challenging the existence of standalone centers owned by radiologists.
CONCLUSION
To wrap up, detailed information on the medical imaging market in Nigeria is only available behind paywalls. However, the minimum number of pregnancy-related ultrasounds can be estimated at 2,752,404 per year, and chest x-rays estimated at a minimum of 4,859,274 per year.
Thank you for using Wonder! Please let us know if we can help with additional research.