Mobile Payments Growth

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Mobile Payments Growth

The US mobile payments market is roughly estimated to increase by $325.1 billion over the next five years. The number of US mobile payment users is estimated to increase by 141.4 million over the same time period. Below are our calculations, findings and an outline of research strategies deployed in an attempt to answer the query.

US MOBILE PAYMENTS GROWTH ESTIMATIONS

  • In the following three years, the US mobile payments market should reach $289.72 billion (calculated). This is an increase of $148.05 billion compared to 2019 (calculated).
  • In the following five years, the US mobile payments market should reach $466.78 billion (calculated). This is an increase of $325.1 billion compared to 2019 (calculated).
  • In the following three years, the number of US mobile payment users should reach 125.9 million (calculated). This is an increase of 64.4 million compared to 2019 (calculated).
  • In the following five years, the number of US mobile payment users should reach 202.9 million (calculated). This is an increase of 141.4 million compared to 2019 (calculated).

US HISPANICS

  • Hispanic consumers actively use mobile payments. On average, 21% of Hispanic smartphone users use mobile payments, compared to 13% of average smartphone users.
  • Foreign-born Hispanic millennials are more interested in mobile payments than their US-born peers. Among foreign-born Hispanic population, Apple Wallet is preferred by 63% of the population, compared to 43% of their US-born peers.

US EAST COAST

GLOBAL MOBILE PAYMENTS MARKET GROWTH

  • In the following three years, the global mobile payments market should reach $2,330.12 billion (calculated). This is an increase of $1,190.69 billion compared to 2019 (calculated).
  • In the following five years, the global mobile payments market should reach $3,695.5 billion (calculated). This is an increase of $2,556.03 billion compared to 2019 (calculated).

Research strategy

Due to lack of available information, data on global mobile payments market growth have been provided as helpful findings, along with rough estimates of the US mobile payments market growth. Below is an outline of the strategies deployed in an attempt to locate reliable US-specific information:

We searched for preexisting market growth information, specifically the current market size in USD and the CAGR, in market reports. Sites we searched include Market Watch, Allied Market Research, Mordor Intelligence, among others. We also delved into US mobile payment players' annual reports, such as Apple, Google, assuming they know this information and might compare their companies to the US market. No information on the market size nor growth rate was found, as the key players did not focus on the market size in their operational reports. All the market reports focused on a global level rather than the US. Still, we were able to find an outdated report from 2015 that predicted the 2019 US mobile payments market size.

Next, since we've obtained the global market size and growth, we conducted a search for segmentation charts of the global market by region, to find the US market share so we could calculate the current market size. Again, various market research sites were scanned, but all relevant information was hidden behind paywalls, so this strategy also failed.

We then tried searching industry-related publications to find the future numbers of mobile payment users in the US in 2018 and information on growth rate in terms of customers. While we were able to obtain the 2019 number of mobile payment users, we were not able to locate any information on predicted growth of US mobile payment users. Thus, we decided to use the global growth rate for years 2018-2024 to provide a rough estimate of the number of mobile payment users in the US in the next 5 years as a helpful finding, assuming the global growth rate reflects in the US.

We were also unable to locate data specifically related to mobile payment consumers living on the east coast. In an attempt to obtain this information, the following strategies were attempted:

First, we searched market reports and industry-specific publications, hoping to locate insights into the prevalence of mobile payments by region in the US, or any other relevant insights. No market reports focused on the US, while in industry publications, we were able to locate an outdated report that stated mobile parking payment users are more prevalent on the east coast than on the west coast. This, however, did not explicitly relate to mobile payments in general, which is why it couldn't be used to answer the query.

Following this, we looked for mobile payment information specific to east coast states (Florida, South and North Carolina, Virginia, Massachusetts and so on). We checked local business publications, such as Business North Carolina, Florida Trend, among others, driven by the assumption that relevant local surveys may be published in these types of sources. No relevant information came up, even though reports on some companies that are entering the mobile payment space existed.

Finally, we attempted to locate relevant mobile payment information pertaining to big cities on the east coast, including Boston, Miami and New York. Again, local business sources were searched, including Mobile Payments Today and Sun Sentinel, but the reports again focused on startups in the space and global data. As such, we decided to provide relevant insights found along the way as helpful findings.

US market growth estimations

Assuming the 2019 US mobile payments market size is 141.67 billion, as predicted by this 2015 source, and that the global mobile payments market CAGR reflects in the US, the 2022 US mobile payments market size is going to be $289.72 billion, while the 2024 market size should be $466.78 billion. This has been calculated using the CAGR calculator as follows:

2022 market size

Initial value (2019 market size): 141,673,000,000
CAGR: 26.93%
Number of periods: 3 (2022 – 2019)
Final value: 289,720,969,998

2022 US mobile payments market size estimate: $289.72 billion.

To calculate the growth in terms of market value over the next 3 years, we calculated the difference between the estimated 2022 market size and the calculated current market size. Calculation:

289,720,969,998 – 141,673,000,000
= 148,047,969,998

Hence, the mobile payments market growth over the period 2019 – 2022 is expected to be $148.05 billion.

2024 market size

Initial value (2019 market size): 141,673,000,000
CAGR: 26.93%
Number of periods: 5 (2024 – 2019)
Final value: 466,775,970,589

2024 US mobile payments market size estimate: $466.78 billion

To calculate the growth in terms of market value over the next 5 years, we calculated the difference between the estimated 2024 market size and the calculated current market size. Calculation:

466,775,970,589 – 141,673,000,000
= 325,102,970,589

Hence, the mobile payments market growth over the period 2019 – 2024 is expected to be $325.1 billion.

In 2019, 61.6 million people in the US are using mobile payment services. Assuming the global mobile payments market CAGR can be applied to the number of US users, the 2022 number of mobile payment users in the US is going to be 125.9 million, while the 2024 number should be 202.9 million. This has been calculated using the CAGR calculator as follows:

2022 number of users

Initial value (2019 number of users): 61,600,000
CAGR: 26.93%
Number of periods: 3 (2022 – 2019)
Final value: 125,971,863

Estimated number of US mobile payment users in 2022: 125.9 million

To calculate the growth in terms of number of users over the next 3 years, we calculated the difference between the estimated 2022 market size and the calculated current market size. Calculation:

125,971,863 – 61,600,000
= 64,371,863

Hence, the number of users over the period 2019 – 2022 should increase by 64.4 million.

2024 number of users

Initial value (2019 number of users): 61,600,000
CAGR: 26.93%
Number of periods: 5 (2024 – 2019)
Final value: 202,956,101

Estimated number of US mobile payment users in 2024: 202.9 million

To calculate the growth in terms of number of users over the next 5 years, we calculated the difference between the estimated 2024 market size and the calculated current market size. Calculation:

202,956,101 – 61,600,000
= 141,356,101

Hence, the number of users over the period 2019 – 2024 should increase by 141.4 million

Global market growth calculation

In order to calculate the global 2019 mobile payments market size, we utilized data points found in this market report. There, we found the 2018 market size, the expected 2024 market size and the CAGR for the period 2018-2024. In order to get the current, 2019 market size, we applied the CAGR to the 2018 market size, using this CAGR calculator. The calculation was performed as follows:

Initial value (2018 market size): 897,680,000,000
CAGR: 26.93%
Number of periods: 1
Final value: 1,139,430,000,000

Hence, the 2019 mobile payments market size is $1,139.43 billion.

To calculate the growth in terms of market value over the next 5 years, we calculated the difference between the expected 2024 market size and the calculated current market size. Calculation:

2024 market size: 3,695,460,000,000
2019 calculated market size: 1,139,430,000,000

3,695,460,000,000 – 1,139,430,000,000
= 2,556,030,000,000

Thus, the mobile payments market growth over the period 2019 – 2024 is expected to be $2,556.03 billion.

In order to calculate the growth in terms of value over the next 3 years, we calculated the 2022 market size by applying the CAGR to the 2018 market size, using the CAGR calculator, as follows:

Initial value: 897,680,000,000
CAGR: 26.93%
Number of periods: 4 (2022-2018)
Final value: 2,330,120,000,000

Thus, the expected 2022 market size is $2,330.12 billion.

To calculate the growth in terms of market value over the next 3 years, we calculated the difference between the expected 2022 market size and the calculated current market size. Calculation:

2,330,120,000,000 – 1,139,430,000,000
= 1,190,690,000,000

Hence, the mobile payments market growth over the period 2019 – 2022 is expected to be $1,190.69 billion.
Sources
Sources