Mobile Ad Traffic

Delivered February 6th, 2018. Contributors: Sara F., Patricia R., Harrison G., james O., Jessica D. and

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Singapore - Past data and the expected growth of mobile ad traffic in terms of impressions.

Very little precompiled data is available regarding mobile in-app impressions in Singapore. However, we were able to find data on mobile ad spend, the percentage of that spending attributable to in-app advertising, and the CPM (cost per million impressions), which allowed us to do some rough calculations. Based on available data, we have estimated the in-app advertising impressions in Singapore to be as follows:

2013: 4.65 million
2014: 6.83 million
2015: 17.35 million 
2016: 31.24 million
2017: 53.1 million
2018: 82.32 million
2019: 99.6 million
2020: 110.57 million


ASSUMPTIONS AND CALCULATIONS

As of 2017, 44% of Singapore's mobile advertising is in-app advertising. While figures for previous years were not available, Singapore has been at the forefront of smartphone and app usage since 2013, so we will use 44% as a proxy for each year. After extensive searching, I found only one source that presented a CPM for Singapore, and that figure is $1.61. So we will use this figure as a proxy for all years as well.


2013
Mobile ad spend: A 2013 report by the Mobile Marketing Association (MMA) states that mobile ad spending in Singapore was an estimated $15.5 million to $17 million at that time. We will use the larger figure for our calculations.
In-app ad spend: $7.48 million (17 million x .44)
In-app impressions: approximately 4.65 million (7.48 million / 1.61)

2014
Mobile ad spend: The same MMA source estimated 2014 mobile ad spend at $25 million.
In-app ad spend: $11 million (25 million x .44)
In-app impressions: approximately 6.83 million (11 million / 1.61)

2015
Mobile ad spend: $63.5 million 
In-app ad spend: 27.94 million (63.5 million x .44)
In-app impressions: approximately 17.35 million (27.94 million / 1.61)

2016
Mobile ad spend: $114.3 million 
In-app ad spend: $50.3 million (114.3 million x .44)
In-app impressions: approximately 31.24 million (50.3 million / 1.61).

2017
Mobile ad spend: $194.3 million 
In-app ad spend: $85.492 million (194.3 million x .44)
In-app impressions: approximately 53.1 million (85.492 million / 1.61)

Forecast
Assuming the percentage of in-app advertising and the CPM remain the same, the predicted figures for 2018-2020 are as follows:

2018
Mobile ad spend: $301.2 million 
In-app ad spend: $132.5 million (301.2 million x .44)
In-app impressions: approximately 82.32 million (132.5 million / 1.61)

2019
Mobile ad spend: $364.5 million 
In-app ad spend: $160.38 million (364.5 million x .44)
In-app impressions: approximately 99.6 million (160.38 / 1.61)

2020
Mobile ad spend: $404.6 million 
In-app ad spend: $178 million (404.6 million x .44)
In-app impressions: approximately 110.56 million (178 million / 1.61)


CONCLUSION

In conclusion, using the available data to triangulate the figures requested, we have estimated that in-app impressions in Singapore from 2013-2017 and projected for 2018-2010 are as follows:

2013: 4.65 million
2014: 6.83 million
2015: 17.35 million 
2016: 31.24 million
2017: 53.1 million
2018: 82.32 million
2019: 99.6 million
2020: 110.57 million

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Philippines - Past data and the expected growth of mobile ad traffic in terms of impressions.

Mobile in-app ad impressions in the Philippines are expected to grow from an estimated 37.46 million in 2013 to a projected 122.55 million in 2020. 

Please note that these figures are estimations, and should be taken as such. See below for more notes on our calculations and findings.

METHODOLOGY
In order to answer your query, we looked for studies, reports and statistical compilations on mobile ad impressions and traffic in the Philippines and Asia-Pacific — however, we were not successful in locating publicly available reports with the specific information requested.

Therefore, in order to give you an estimation, we proceeded to work from publicly available information. We first calculated the number of in-app mobile ad impressions for the entire region of Asia-Pacific per year, calculating the percentage of mobile ad impressions that came from smartphones. Take into account that this figure uses numbers from 2011, the most recent figure available, and it was likely higher each year. 

We then used numbers on global mobile ad impressions from Opera Mediaworks, and the percentage that Asia-Pacific represents from them, as well as growth rate from 2014 to 2015 ( the only growth rate available exclusively for mobile ad growth and Asia-Pacific) as approximation for every year in order to estimate in-app mobile ad impressions for the region per year. Please note that this figure includes both video and banners, and may reflect numbers exclusive to Opera Mediaworks. 

In order to calculate what percentage of impressions come from the Philippines, we used the country's share in digital ad revenue for 2018. Given that ad revenue in Asia-Pacific reached US$69 billion in 2018, and the Philippines' reached US$402 million, we can estimate the country's share as 0.58%.

However, do keep in mind that this percentage is conservative — the Philippines is the country in the region with the highest growth in digital ad spending, and its share in the sector within the region has likely gone up in the last five years.

All percentages and growth rates were calculated using an online percentage calculator.  

Please take into account that these figures are all estimations and should be taken as such.

FINDINGS
According to data from InMobi, published by Enterprise Innovation, out of 69.5 billion impressions in Q3 2011, 5.4 billion were from smartphones — so 7.7% of total mobile ad impressions in Asia-Pacific are likely to be in-app. However, take into account that this figure comes from 2011, and the percentage is likely to have grown since given the three-digit growth rate in smartphone penetration in the area. 

According to eMarketer, there were 50 billion mobile ad impressions globally every month, or 600 billion mobile ad impressions in total in 2013, of which 14%, or 84 billion, were from Asia-Pacific. Of these 7.7% are from smartphone — so there were 6.46 billion in-app mobile ad impressions in Asia-Pacific in 2013.

Opera Mediaworks calculated the growth of mobile ad impressions for the region for 2014-2015 in 18.45%. Taking this growth rate as proxy for every year, we can calculate the number of mobile ad impressions for Asia-Pacific:

2013: 6.46 billion
2014: 7.65 billion
2015: 9.06 billion
2016: 10.73 billion
2017: 12.71 billion
2018: 15.06 billion
2019: 17.84 billion
2020: 21.13 billion

Applying the 0.58% percentage calculated above to the total in-app mobile ad impressions, it results in the following mobile ad impressions per year for the Philippines: 

2013: 37.46 million
2014: 44.37 million
2015: 52.54 million
2016: 62.23 million
2017: 73.71 million
2018: 87.34 million
2019: 103.47 million
2020: 122.55 million

However, do keep in mind that the Philippines is the country that is experiencing the highest growth in ad spending in the region — and forecasts place its share for 2020 as high as 25% — so this estimation is likely low.

CONCLUSION
In conclusion, mobile in-app ad impressions in the Philippines are expected to grow from an estimated 37.46 million in 2013 to a projected 122.55 million in 2020.

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Indonesia - Past data and the expected growth of mobile ad traffic in terms of impressions.

The annual growth rate of Indonesia's digital ad spend market is expected to be in the double digits through to 2020. The following is the real and expected number of mobile in-app impressions for Indonesia from 2013 to 2020. 
Mobile ad impressions 2013: 4.42 billion
2014: 7.87 billion
2015: 34.53 billion
2016: 61.19 billion
2017: 93.17 billion
2018: 124.94 billion
2019: 153.48 billion
2020: 180.53 billion
Important pointsCPM: As this report focuses on number of impressions, we are using cost-per-mille throughout. This is a cost per thousand impressions on a given ad. 

AdBlock: Indonesians are amongst the most frequent users of mobile ad blocking, at 58%. This means there is a significant margin of lost impressions amongst mobile users in Indonesia.

Impression Fraud: Indonesia ranks 2nd for ad impression fraud in the world. Based on a report by advertising tech company AppLift, an average of 21% of mobile impressions in Indonesia are fraudulent. 
MethodologyAs impression data is not publicly available, we are required to make some assumptions and calculations to find more detailed impressions data. 

Assumptions: constant $CPM average from 2013-2020, constant fraud rate of 21%, similar CPM data to Facebook across industry. 

CPM Average Price: Facebook is the most used app in Indonesia, followed by Instagram which runs on the same advertising platform as Facebook. Because of the wide adoption rate of Facebook, combined with their granular advertising algorithms, I assumed the Facebook average CPM (which is publicly available) is fairly accurate across the industry in Indonesia. 

CPM as Percentage of Ad Spend: I triangulated this data based on a list of 953 Indonesian advertising companies, calculating the percentage who specialize in CPM vs. CPC or other revenue models. 

(CPM: 755) / (Total: 953) = 79.2%
CALCULATIONSTotal CPM Spend = (Total Ad Spend) x 0.792

CPM Units = (Total CPM Spend) / (Average CPM)
Note: In this case, average CPM is $1.61 

Total Impressions = CPM Units x 1000 

The core data used comes from a breakdown of real and projected ad spend for Indonesia from 2015-2020. I supplemented this with real data for 2013-2014 to build the complete breakdown. 

IN-APP BANNER AND VIDEOThere is very little data available on such a granular level, however Facebook uses primarily banner and video ads, thus should closely represent the industry as a whole in Indonesia. 

conclusionTo wrap it up, mobile ad traffic in terms of impressions is expected to reach around 180 billion by the year 2020, up from a mere 4.42 billion in 2013. This data is based on information from Facebook, the most-used app in Indonesia. Indonesians are more likely to have ad blocking software and higher fraud rates, leading to possibly smaller numbers than other countries in the region.

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Thailand - Past data and the expected growth of mobile ad traffic in terms of impressions.

Mobile in-app ad impressions in Thailand are calculated to grow from an estimated 50.44 million in 2013 to a projected 168.40 million in 2020.

See below for more notes on our calculations and findings.
METHODOLOGYAfter analyzing several studies, reports and statistical collations on mobile ad impressions and traffic in Thailand and Asia-Pacific, clearly, there are no publicly available reports with the specific information requested. However, we used the publicly available information to triangulate the request and arrive at assumptions.

By using numbers from 2011, the most recent available, we started by calculating the number of in-app mobile ad impressions for the entire region of Asia-Pacific per year, calculating the percentage of mobile ad impressions that came from smartphones.

Since Opera Mediaworks provides us with numbers on worldwide mobile ad impressions from smartphones and the percentage attributed to Asia-Pacific, as well as growth rate from 2014 to 2015 — the only growth rate available exclusively for mobile ad growth in Asia-Pacific, we used its figures to approximate in-app mobile ad impressions in Asia-Pacific for every year, and eventually for Thailand. Please note that these figures include both video and banners, and may reflect numbers exclusive to Opera Mediaworks.

In order to get the percentage of impressions come from Thailand, we used the country's ad revenue against the regional ad revenue to triangulate its share in digital ad revenue for 2018. Given that Digital Market estimates that ad revenue in Asia-Pacific will reach US$69 billion in 2018, and Statista estimates Thailand’s to reach US$535 million, we can estimate the country's share as 0.77% — calculated as (535 million *100 billion)/69.

However, do keep in mind that this percentage is conservative and ad spending has been increasing; hence, Thailand’s share in the sector within the region has likely gone up in the last five years.
FINDINGS
According to data from InMobi on the Asia Pacific market, out of 69.5 billion impressions in Q3 2011, 5.4 billion were from smartphones — so 7.8% of total mobile ad impressions in Asia-Pacific are likely to be in-app (calculated as 5.4/69.5 by 100). Take notice that this figure uses numbers from 2011, the most recent available.

A research conducted in 2013 by Opera Mediaworks reported that there were 50 billion mobile ad impressions globally every month, or 600 billion mobile ad impressions in total in 2013 (calculated as 50 billion*12), and Asia-Pacific accounted for 14 percent of these Impressions, or 84 billion. As shown above, 7.8 percent of total mobile ad impressions are from smartphones, resulting in around 6.55 billion in-app mobile ad impressions in Asia-Pacific in 2013 — calculated as 7.8% by 84 billion.

Opera Mediaworks calculated the growth rate of mobile ad impressions for the Asia-Pacific region from 2014 to 2015 at 18.79 percent. We will take this growth rate as a representation for each year to calculate the number of mobile ad impressions for Asia-Pacific and eventually for Thailand.

Triangulating the number of mobile ad impressions for Asia-Pacific (applying the growth rate of 18.79 percent):

2013: 6.55 billion — from above
2014: 7.78 billion — calculated as (6.55 * 18.79 %) + 6.55
2015: 9.24 billion — calculated as (7.78 * 18.79 %) + 7.78
2016: 10.98 billion — calculated as (9.24 * 18.79 %) + 9.24
2017: 13.04 billion — calculated as (10.98 * 18.79 %) + 10.98
2018: 15.50 billion — calculated as (13.04 * 18.79 %) + 13.04
2019: 18.41 billion — calculated as (15.50 * 18.79 %) + 15.50
2020: 21.87 billion — calculated as (18.41 * 18.79 %) + 18.41

Triangulating the number of mobile ad impressions for Thailand (country’s share of mobile ad impression is around 0.77 percent):

2013: 50.44 million — calculated as (6.55 * 0.77 %)
2014: 60 million — calculated as (7.78 * 0.77 %)
2015: 71.15 million — calculated as (9.24 * 0.77 %)
2016: 82.24 million — calculated as (10.68 * 0.77 %)
2017: 100.4 million — calculated as (13.04 * 0.77 %)
2018: 119.35 million — calculated as (15.50 * 0.77 %)
2019: 141.76 million — calculated as (18.41 * 0.77 %)
2020: 168.40 million — calculated as (21.87 * 0.77%)

Please take into account that these figures are all estimations and should be taken as such.
Conclusion
In conclusion, mobile in-app ad impressions in Thailand are expected to grow from an estimated 50.44 million in 2013 to a projected 168.40 million in 2020.

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Malaysia - Past data and the expected growth of mobile ad traffic in terms of impressions.

We successfully triangulated the past data and the expected growth of mobile ad traffic, expressed in terms of impressions, for Malaysia for 2013-2020. From 2013 to 2017, total impressions of mobile ad traffic in Malaysia grew from 11,300,869,565 to 45,967,773, 913. Projections mobile ad impressions in Malaysia demonstrate even greater growth, reaching 100,877,113,043 by 2020.

Below you will find our results regarding the past data and projected growth of mobile ad impressions in Malaysia from 2013 to 2020.
MethodologyVpon's Mobile Advertising Statistics and Trends had the information available for 2016 and the first half of 2017, although reported as percentages of in-App versus mobile web. However, no other years were publicly available.

To determine the numbers behind the percentage in the years we had and obtain the figures for the other requested years, we used ad spend data, Cost-per-Mille (CPM) averages and regional mobile ad data. In Malaysia, 95% of ad companies use CPM advertising, meaning they charge per 1,000 impressions. Given that, we multiplied the total ad spend for each year by .95 to find Total Ad Spend on CPM for each year. We assumed a flat distribution of CPM spending during 2013, 2014, and 2015 because the jump in mobile usage in Malaysia occurred in 2016. We also used a flat distribution for the projected years. To obtain the number of impressions, we multiplied the total amount spent on CPM by 1000 based on CPM relying on cost per 1000 impressions.

The total obtained from the calculations discussed above is not the end of the necessary calculations. There are three further adjustments to make. First, according to Asia Finance, 8% of all mobile ad impressions in Malaysia are fraudulent. Furthermore, Pagefair says 8% of all Malaysian mobile devises utilize an ad blocker and are thus lost impressions. Last, we excluded mobile web impressions from in-app impressions through the data provided for 2016 and the first half of 2017 provided by VPons. The calculations for each year are below.

2013, 2014, 2015, we assumed flat CPM spending, using the data for 2015. 

 38 million x .95 = 36,100,000 total ad spend

36,100,000 total ad spend / $1.61 AVG CPM = 22,422,360.25 x 1000 = 22,422,360,248 total impressions (minus 16% of total to account for fraudulent and lost impressions 3,587,577,640) 

18,834,782,608 remaining impressions x .60 (2016 percentage of mobile in-app impressions) = 11,300,869,565

2016: 
 66.6 million x .95 = (63,270,000 total ad spend / $1.61 AVG CPM) x 1000 = 39,298,136,646 total impressions (minus 16% of total to account for fraudulent and lost impressions 6,287,701,863)

33,010,434,783 remaining impressions x .60 (2016 percentage of mobile in-app impressions) = 19,806,260,870 

2017:
 113.1 million x .95 = (107,445,000 total ad spend / $1.61 AVG CPM) x 1000 = 66,736,024,845 total impressions (minus 16% of total to account for fraudulent and lost impressions 10,677,763,975) 

56,058,260,870 remaining impressions x .82 (2017 percentage of mobile in-app impressions) = 45,967,773,913  

2018:
 169.7 million x .95 = (161,215,000 total ad spend / $1.61 AVG CPM) x 1000 = 100,133,540,373 total impressions (minus 16% of total to account for fraudulent and lost impressions 16,021,366,460) 

84,112,173,913 remaining impressions x .82 (2017 percentage of mobile in-app impressions) = 68,971,982,609 

2019:
 220.6 million x .95 = (209,570,000 total ad spend / $1.61 AVG CPM) x 1000 = 130,167,701,863 total impressions (minus 16% of total to account for fraudulent and lost impressions 20,826,832,298) 

109,340,869,565 remaining impressions x .82 (2017 percentage of mobile in-app impressions) = 89,659,513,043 

2020:
 248.2 million x .95 = (235,790,000 total ad spend / $1.61 AVG CPM) x 1000 = 146,453,416,149 total impressions (minus 16% of total to account for fraudulent and lost impressions 23,432,546,584) 

123,020,869,565 remaining impressions x .82 (2017 percentage of mobile in-app impressions) = 100,877,113,043  
results listMobile ad impressions in Malaysia:
2013: 11,300,869,565
2014: 11,300,869,565
2015: 11,300,869,565
2016: 19,806,260,870 
2017: 45,967,773,913  
Projected mobile ad impressions in Malaysia: 
2018: 68,971,982,609
2019: 89,659,513,043 
2020: 100,877,113,043 
ConclusionWe triangulated the total mobile ad impressions for each year from 2013 to 2017, a data set which ranged from 11,300,869,565 to 45,967,773,913. We were also able to triangulate the projected mobile ad impressions for 2018, 2019, and 2020, which grew to 100,877,113,043.