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What is the market size for used Harley Davidsons? (by year for last 10 years)
Hello, and thanks for your question asking what is the market size for used Harley Davidsons, by year over the last decade. The short version is that after searching extensively through industry reports, company financial reports, online articles and news stories, I’ve determined that the information you requested is not publicly available because it is too complicated to keep track of all second hand bike transactions, as they happen on a number of platforms, including cash transactions between people. However, I was able to learn that transactions of used Harley Davidsons may be increasing as transactions of new bikes struggles. Experts believe that a lot of this has to do with the fact that millennials are preferring to buy second hand, and that Harley Davidson build reliable bikes that keep going. Below you will find a deep dive into my research, along with all the details as to how I came to this conclusion.
OVERVIEW
After searching exhaustively, I have not been able to find any statistic that proves the market size of used Harley Davidsons over the last 10 years. First, I looked through online statistical databases to see if they held any information on market size in terms of transactions, or would allow me to calculate this. For example, I looked through data that Statista had on the Motorcycle Industry, and data that had specifically on Harley Davidson, I did find that they had some in depth reports which may hold the required data, however, they are only available to access through corporate accounts.
Then, I looked through all online articles and new reports on the subject. While I found some useful information, which I have gone into below, I found nothing that would allow me to calculate or estimate the number of transactions by year.
Finally, I looked through Harley Davidson's financial reports in full, in case they had gathered any information about how many of their bikes were being sold each year on the second hand market, however, again the information remained unavailable.
HELPFUL FINDINGS
While I could not find a direct answer to your question, I was able to gather some information about this topic, which I think will be helpful for your project.
To begin with, this source shows the expected breakdown of Harley Davidson's revenue for 2017, showing that the US market is expected to account for 41% of its revenue, at over $2.4 billion. Figures show a 1.6% decline in motorcycle shipments during the year.
Forbes tells us that the base of used bikes is nearly 2.5 times larger than new Harley-Davidson bikes. However, we don't know whether this is in relation to revenue or transactions. The article also predicts that Harley Davidson's sales of new bikes will show very slow growth over the next few years, as younger buyers opt to purchase cheaper, used models. This suggests that the used Harley Davidson market is growing.
In addition to this, I was able to find data on Harley Davidson's revenue over the years relating to sales of new bikes, and split by region. The financial reports on their website shows that sales of new Harley Davidson motorcycles in the US has pretty much stalled:
And given that 2017 is expected to see a revenue of just $2.4 billion, we can conclude that sales of new bikes are struggling. This may mean that more and more transactions are being made in the used bike market. Harley Davidson suggest that they are maintaining their popularity and growing their customer base, and they may be doing this through the increasingly popularity through sales of second hand bikes.
Harley Davidson says that it has successfully branched out to reach new customers, trying to rid itself of its classic reputation of being associated with old white men. It says it has reached out to African-Americans, Hispanics, women of all ages and young adults ages 18 to 34. However, research has shown that at least one of these demographic groups, the millennials, prefer to buy second hand.
Finally, I found this source that suggests that used bike sales may continue to be a threat to Harley Davidson for years to come. It is claimed that a huge 70% of Harley Davidsons ever made are still running. This shows that reliable bikes will be around on the second hand market for many years to come. And with the trend for millennials preferring to buy second hand, we may see transactions in this market grow as they fall in the new bike market.
ALTERNATIVE AVENUES OF RESEARCH
In understanding what types of information are and are not publicly available on this topic, I’ve suggested a few other routes you may be interested in researching.
For example, you may be interested in understanding who Harley Davidson's target market is. This may be interesting to look into, because sources claim that they are refocusing on a wider demographic in order to pull in new customers. It also may hold information about the used car market, because different demographics shop in different ways. For example, we've already seen that millennials are preferring to buy second hand.
CONCLUSION
To wrap it up, after searching extensively through industry reports, company financial reports, online articles and news stories, I’ve determined that the information you requested is not publicly available because it is too complicated to keep track of all second hand bike transactions, as they happen on a number of platforms, including cash transactions between people. However, I was able to learn that transactions of used Harley Davidsons may be increasing as transactions of new bikes struggles. Experts believe that a lot of this has to do with the fact that millennials are preferring to buy second hand, and that Harley Davidson build reliable bikes that keep going (70% of all Harley Davidson bikes ever built are still running).
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