Domestic train market - Spain

Part
01
of three
Part
01

Domestic Train Market - Spain

The market size of the domestic passenger railway in Spain in 2016 was over 568,000. Then in 2017 it increased to over 592,000. This represents a 4.1% increase.

SPAINS'S DOMESTIC RAILWAY MARKET SIZE


Domestic Railway Use

Research Strategy:

We began by combing through reputable media websites like IRJ international railway journal, Eurosat statistical explained and IGR Rail independent regulation group for articles written on the market size and number of passengers yearly on the domestic railway in Spain and the information that was provided above was the information on the various sites conducted.
Information got from the IRJ international railway journal show that Renfe Railway Company is a monopoly in the railway industry in Spain and operate for both public and private railway domestic transport in Spain. "Spanish law at the end of 2018, enabling market opening for domestic passenger services in December 2020 and ending Renfe’s monopoly of commercial and Public Service Obligation (PSO) rail services."
From the IRJ international railway Journal it showed that Renfe Railway Company is the only railway industry that is operating in Spain in the public and private domestic railway industry and their market size have been used to represent the market size of the domestic railway industry in Spain.
In order to get the domestic market size of the Renfe Railway Company, since it was the only railway company both public and private in Spain, the forecast market size has to be divided by the total number of domestic passengers.
Therefore, the market size of the domestic passenger railway industry in Spain is €1.40bn

Part
02
of three
Part
02

Spanish Domestic Train Market - Future Growth

The average market growth of the rail system in Spain is predicted by Renfe to be a thirty percent increase from 2018 to 2028. The growth of passengers is expected to grow at an annual rate of 1.96%.

By Company

  • Renfe is the national railroad of Spain and currently has almost 90% of the market share in the country (See previous Wonder research)
  • In 2020 the national government in Spain liberalized the rail market, effectively opening Renfe up to competition.
  • Renfe is optimistic about retaining their market share and has a plan which projects revenue of "€4.6bn in 2023 and €5.3bn in 2028, a 30% increase compared with 2018".
  • Renfe also projects that international passengers will produce 5% of their revenue in 2023 and 10% of their revenue in 2028 which they expect "will offset the impact of competition in the domestic market."

By Country

  • Spain's economy is on an upward trend. It grew by 2.6% in 2018, which exceeded the European average.
  • The GDP growth forecast is 2.1 percent and 1.9 percent for 2019 and 2020 respectively.

By Region

  • Current average annual trips per urban adult in Europe is approximately 100.
  • The TransEuropean Transportation Network, in their planning for the implementation of a connected Traffic Management system by 2030, is forecasting growths per year of 2.5% per year for high speed rail from 2010 to 2050 and 1.4% annually for non-urban passenger rail.

Globally

  • Globally, the railway system market is expected to reach a CAGR of 5.2% between 2019 and 2025.
  • The International Energy Agency, in a report called the future of rail, projects that annual European rail passenger trips will grow from 90 billion in 2017 to 125 billion by 2030 and 175 billion by 2050.

Yearly Passenger Growth

Yearly passenger growth using a growth rate averaged at 1.96% per year to 2027 is forecast as seen below.
  • 2025

Overview of factors driving growth

Calculations

  • In order to calculate a year by year passenger growth in Spain, we averaged the 2.5% projected increase in high-speed rail and the 1.4% projected increase in domestic rail, which gave us an annual growth rate of 1.95%.
  • We then calculated 1.95% of the previous year's total and then added the two together.
  • For example, the annual ridership in Spain in 2017 was 634,484,149.
  • 1.95% of that number is 12,372,441
  • When those two numbers are added together, the total is 646,856,590.
  • That same formula was used for each year. The attached spreadsheet shows the calculations.



Part
03
of three
Part
03

Major Players in the Spanish Domestic Railway Services

Renfe has 100% of the domestic market share of passenger railways in Spain.

Domestic Passenger Railway Market Share (Spain)

  • According to multiple sources, Renfe has a monopoly on the domestic passenger railway in Spain. In other words, Renfe has 100% of the market share.
  • Renfe's monopoly is coming to an end on December 2020.
  • The Spanish government approved the Fourth Railway Package at the end of 2018. The law positions a timeline to end Renfe's monopoly.
  • The domestic passenger railway market will be open to new competitors. Renfe has recently worked on improving its service in order to better compete with the new oncoming competition.
  • In June 2018, the Spanish government approved the private AVE train to compete with Renfe.
  • Renfe intends to renew trains and modernize its fleet in anticipation of the new competition. A high-frequency track is planned between Madrid and Valencia.
Sources
Sources

From Part 03