Market research

Part
01
of eight
Part
01

Demographics -Edible Cannabis Users: United States

Edible cannabis users in the US are mostly 21 to 35 years old, at 40.79%, followed by people from the 36 to 45 age range, at 25.75%. Women make up to 58.35% of the edible cannabis users in the country, while men at 41.65%. Majority of the edible cannabis users, at 35.23%, earn between $26,000 to $55,000.

Demographics of Edible Cannabis Users in the US

Based on a survey report published in Proprietary of the 2017 Cannabis Consumers Coalition, the demographics of edible cannabis users in the United States are as follows:

age

The ages of cannabis consumers are:

gender

Income level

  • Less than $25,000: 20.45%
  • $26,000 to $55,000: 35.23%
  • $56,000 to $75,000: 16.86%
  • $76,000 to $100,000: 11.74%
  • $100,000 to $150,000: 11.36%
  • More than $156,000: 4.36%

MARITAL STATUS

  • Based on a research study published in the Journal of Addictive Behavior in 2017, cannabis users are:
— Married or partnered (18-30 years old): 22%
— Married or partnered (31-50 years old): 35%
— Married or partnered (51-74 years old): 43%
  • According to a Washington Post article, "more than half of marijuana (or cannabis) users are parents."

EducAtional Level

Based on a research study published in the Journal of Addictive Behavior in 2017, cannabis users have:
  • College degree or higher (18 to 30 years old): 40%
  • College degree or higher (31 to 50 years old): 60%
  • College degree or higher (51 to 74 years old): 57%

Additional Information

  • Based on medical versus recreational cannabis use, about 16.64% use cannabis mainly for medical use and 18.71% for recreational use. However, 64.65% use cannabis for both purposes.

Research Strategy

In order to compile the demographic information of edible cannabis users in the United States, we initially relied on survey reports and found one published in the Proprietary of the Cannabis Consumers Coalition. The report presented the demographics of US cannabis consumers, such as their age, gender, income, and other information specific to edible cannabis. From this report, we have collected the demographic data on age, gender, and income of these consumers. However, this report did not include the information on marital status and the educational level of the US consumers of edible cannabis.

Our next strategy involved looking through government databases, such as NIH and CGC; and trusted media articles, such as the Washington Post. However, none of these sources provided any direct information on the demographics of edible cannabis users in the United States. It did, however, provide the information on parents (as consumers of edible cannabis) with children. We also searched through the relevant websites, such as Statista, Reuters, and Nature.com, among others. Reuters provided information on cannabis smokers and not edible cannabis, and Statista had information on the percentage of the population in the US who consumed cannabis in the past year from 2002 to 2017. Nature.com mainly talked about medical marijuana. Also, during our research, we have noticed that most of the big research companies have conducted survey/research on Canadian consumers.

Lastly, we decided to look through scientific journals and magazines to find the demographics of edible cannabis users in the United States, specifically to look for their educational level and marital status. Some sources we looked through include CMAJ (Journal of Canadian Medical Association) and the Journal of Primary Prevention. The study published in CMAJ mainly talked about students of Ontario, Canada, and did not provide any information related to the US's consumers' education level. The Journal of Primary Prevention mentioned about the parents who are users of edible cannabis and provided the percentage of parents who have attended college and the percentage who have not attended the college. Another research study published in the Journal of Addictive Behavior also mentioned the demographics of US consumers of cannabis, which include their gender, ethnicity, marital status, education, and some other indicators by age. Thus, we presented them in our findings.
Part
02
of eight
Part
02

Demographics -Edible Cannabis Users: Canada

According to our research, people in Canada between the ages of 20 and 24 consume edible cannabis products more than other ages (44.0%). Additionally, 31.9% of females and 31.1% of males use edible cannabis products.

AGE

  • The percent of individuals that report using edible cannabis products (prepared food products) by age goes as follows: 16-19 (35.1%), 20-24 (44.0%), and 25 and up (28.3%).
  • The percent of individuals that admit to consuming cannabis in an edible form (e.g., candy, cookies, cake, brownies) by age goes as follows: 16-19 (39.1%), 20-24 (44.9%), and 25 and up (30.6%).

Gender

  • More than one-third (31.9%) of females in Canada utilize edible cannabis products (prepared food products), while 31.1% of males do the same.
  • Around 34.3% of females say that they have used cannabis in an edible form (e.g., candy, cookies, cake, brownies), while 33.3% of males have done the same.

Education

  • The percent of individuals in Canada reporting that they have never used edible marijuana by the level of education attained goes as follows: less than high school (69%), high school (76%), post-secondary (74%), university graduates (72%).
  • The percent of individuals saying that they occasionally used edible marijuana by the level of education attained goes as follows: less than high school (18%), high school (18%), post-secondary (19%), and university graduates (21%).
  • As listed by Statista, the percent of individuals stating that they regularly consumed edible marijuana by the level of education attained goes as follows: less than high school (9%), high school (2%), post-secondary (4%), and university graduates (6%).
  • The percent of Canadians reporting that they frequently used edible marijuana by the level of education attained goes as follows: less than high school (2%), high school (4%), post-secondary (2%), and university graduates stated (1%).

Income level

  • According to Statista, the income levels of individuals that stated that they have never used edible marijuana by income level resembles the following: less than 40,000 CAD (71%), 40,000-60,000 CAD (75%), 60,000-100,000 CAD (74%), and more than 100,000 CAD (69%).
  • The income levels of individuals that stated that they occasionally used edible marijuana by income level resemble the following: less than 40,000 CAD (19%), 40,000-60,000 CAD (22%), 60,000-100,000 CAD (18%), and more than 100,000 CAD (23%).
  • The income levels of individuals that stated that they frequently used edible marijuana by income level resemble the following: less than 40,000 CAD (5%), 40,000-60,000 CAD (1%), 60,000-100,000 CAD (5%), and more than 100,000 CAD (5%).

Marital status

  • Regarding marital status, 8% of single and never married Canadians used cannabis at least once each week, while 3.9% used cannabis at least two to six times per week.
  • As reported by Statistics Canada, about 5.5% of married, common law partners in Canada used cannabis at least once a week. Up to 2.4% of them used cannabis at least two to six times each week.
  • Around 9.7% of separated/divorced/widowed Canadians utilized cannabis at least once per week. Meanwhile, 5.8% of them used cannabis at least two to six times a week.

Research Strategy:

Initially, we searched through Statistics Canada, which is a national statistical office, and found data for the age and gender demographics of edible cannabis users. Afterward, we explored several online portals for statistics and found educational and income level demographic data. We elected to use the information referring to edible marijuana as marijuana is the same as cannabis.

Next, we broadened our search to include sources published more than two years ago to locate any data with which we can infer on the marital status demographic of edible cannabis users. We searched through older stats from the National Statistical Office, online statistics (e.g., Statista), media articles, surveys, and studies. However, none yielded specific information on this demographic.

Finally, we decided to triangulate an answer and located data concerning the marital demographic for cannabis users in general, along with the percentage of edible cannabis products used. Since we did not find any data on the percentage of people using strictly edible cannabis in Canada, it was impossible to triangulate.

Part
03
of eight
Part
03

Demographics -Whole Bean Coffee Drinkers: Canada

On average, 72% of Canadians aged between 18-79 drink coffee on a single day. Eighty-seven percent of individuals in the same age group consumed coffee in 2017. While men in Canada drink an average of three cups of coffee per day, women consume an average of 2.4 cups of coffee each day.

Demographics of Coffee Drinkers

Age And Gender

  • According to a study published by Telegraph, Canada has been placed at #10 in the list of the top twenty countries that consume more coffee per capita in the world. The coffee consumption by this country has reached about 7kg of coffee per capita.
  • It has been found that two-thirds of the Canadian population consume at least one cup of coffee a day. Coffee is the most consumed beverage by individuals aged between 18 and 79.
  • Based on the report by the Coffee Association of Canada, individuals prefer traditional coffee and espresso-based beverages. During the period 2014-2018, it has been observed that the consumption of espresso-based drinks increased to 24% in 2018 from 14% in 2014.
  • According to the Canadian Coffee Consumption report published in 2018, over 72% of Canadians aged 18-79 drink coffee in a single day. On average, 87% of Canadians in the same age group have consumed coffee in 2017.
  • Studies have also reported that Canadian men consume three cups of coffee per day, on average, while women consume over 2.4 cups a day. Women are found to be the key drivers in the growth of iced specialty (67%) and hot specialty coffee servings (65%).
  • The Canadian Coffee Consumption report revealed that only 9% of the Canadians aged 18-79 who brew coffee at home are bean-to-cup brewers. The report also provided insights into the percentage of Canadians who drink espresso-based drinks and non-espresso-based drinks, on average, in a single day.
    • Canadians aged 18-24 who drink espresso-based beverages = 29%
    • Canadians aged 25-34 who drink espresso-based beverages = 28%
    • Canadians aged 35-49 who drink espresso-based beverages = 26%
    • Canadians aged 50-64 who drink espresso-based beverages = 21%
    • Canadians aged 65-79 who drink espresso-based beverages = 16%
    • Canadians aged 18-24 who drink non-espresso-based beverages = 15%
    • Canadians aged 25-34 who drink non-espresso-based beverages = 10%
    • Canadians aged 35-49 who drink non-espresso-based beverages = 9%
    • Canadians aged 50-64 who drink non-espresso-based beverages = 6%
    • Canadians aged 65-79 who drink non-espresso-based beverages = 4%

  • According to a survey conducted by Mintel of over 2000 Canadian respondents, the consumption of coffee by individuals above 18 years old can be categorized in terms of age and gender as follows,
    • Male Canadians aged between 18 and 24 who consume coffee = 7.9%
    • Male Canadians aged between 25 and 34 who consume coffee = 9.1%
    • Male Canadians aged between 35 and 44 who consume coffee = 10.4%
    • Male Canadians aged between 45 and 54 who consume coffee = 8.1%
    • Male Canadians aged between 55 and 64 who consume coffee = 6.1%
    • Male Canadians aged above 65 who consume coffee = 7.4%
    • Female Canadians aged between 18 and 24 who consume coffee = 6.9%
    • Female Canadians aged between 25 and 34 who consume coffee = 8.8%
    • Female Canadians aged between 35 and 44 who consume coffee = 9.4%
    • Female Canadians aged between 45 and 54 who consume coffee = 8.7%
    • Female Canadians aged between 55 and 64 who consume coffee = 8.6%
    • Female Canadians aged above 65 who consume coffee = 8.5%

Income Level

  • According to the "Coffee and Coffee Shops — Canada" survey by Mintel, the following is the breakdown of the consumption of coffee in terms of the income level of Canadian consumers —
    • Consumers with less than $25,000 annual income = 14.0%
    • Consumers with income of the range $25,000 — $49,999 = 20.8%
    • Consumers with income of the range $50,000 — $69,999 = 15.0%
    • Consumers with income of the range $70,000 — $99,999 = 17.8%
    • Consumers with income of $100,000 and over = 32.4%

Geographical Location

  • The following is the breakdown of the consumption of coffee in terms of geographical location within Canada —
    • 40.2% of the population in Ontario consume coffee.
    • 22.1% of the population in Quebec consume coffee.
    • 13.3% of the population in British Columbia consume coffee.
    • 10.7% of the population in Alberta consume coffee.
    • 3.0% of the population in Saskatchewan consume coffee.
    • 4.8% of the population in Manitoba consume coffee.
    • 5.9% of the population in the Atlantic Provinces consume coffee.

at-home drinkers versus the retail drinkers

  • In-home coffee preparation in Canada is driven by 81% Caucasians, 65% South Asians, and 60% East/South-east Asians.
  • Coffee is mainly consumed during breakfast at home.
  • Out-of-home coffee is driven by 37% Caucasians, 50% South Asians, and 53% East/South-east Asians.
  • Out-of-home coffee is preferred to be consumed at cafes or at the place of work.
  • Seven percent of coffee drinkers order coffee through an app.
  • Five percent of coffee drinkers have their coffee delivered.
  • Sixteen percent of coffee drinkers use loyalty cards when ordering coffee.

Research Strategy:

In order to enumerate the demographics of whole bean coffee drinkers in Canada, your research team began by looking through national databases such as Coffee Business Intelligence, Coffee Association of Canada, and Canadian Bakery & Coffee Café Consumer Trend Reports. Any/all demographic information found from these sources pertained to the age and gender of coffee consumers in Canada with no bifurcation on specific types of coffee consumption such as whole bean or ground.

Your research team, then, began looking for surveys and studies conducted by market analysis companies such as Mintel and from websites such as PewResearch among others to identify the consumer profile of whole bean coffee drinkers in Canada. Once again, the studies/research/surveys found only reflected data pertaining to coffee drinkers in general. While study reports provided limited information on the demographic categories of income level and geographic location, there was no data found on the marital status and educational level of coffee consumers in Canada. An exhaustive search through databases such as Statistics Canada provided limited information on the demographics of coffee consumers with no supporting data on the consumer profile in terms of educational level and marital status. Market leaders were then identified by searching through media websites such as Forbes and market research websites such as IBISWorld. Through these channels, the attempt was made to find if the marital status and education level of coffee consumers were studied. However, these resources provided marketing strategies, operations, and competencies, rather than demographic data.

Next, your team expanded its search to include whole bean coffee sellers in Canada such as Level Ground Trading, Kicking Horse Coffee, Salt Spring Coffee, Detour Coffee, and others. The idea was to find any marketing or advertising related statements about the target customers of 'Whole Bean Coffee'. Industry-specific websites such as Adage, Adweek, MediaPlanet, and MarketingDrive were also searched. A thorough search through these channels provided no information on the consumer profile of whole bean coffee drinkers. It was found that most of the whole bean coffee sellers in Canada also sell ground coffee products and have provided no explicit statements or mentions of their consumers. Due to the lack of data available for whole bean coffee consumers, your team utilized coffee consumers' data as proxy.

After an exhaustive search through, it is observed that any/all studies, surveys or research conducted to identify the consumer profile of coffee drinkers or whole bean coffee drinkers in Canada only focus on age, gender, income level, and geographical location. No studies have been conducted to analyze the consumer's education and marital status of whole bean coffee drinkers in Canada.
Part
04
of eight
Part
04

Demographics -Whole Bean Coffee Drinkers: United States

In the United States, 72% of people 60 years old and above are coffee drinkers and the high-quality whole bean coffee beverage is preferred by young people.

Gender


Age

Coffee drinkers in the US in 2018 by age group:
  • 48% of people aged 18-24 years
  • 63% of people aged 25-39 years
  • 66% of people aged 40-59 years
  • 72% of people aged 60 years and above

Education level

Coffee drinkers in the US by education level:
  • With high school diploma or less: 75.4%
  • With more than high school diploma: 74.2%

Income level

Coffee drinkers in the US, based on annual household income level:
  • With income of <$55,000: 74.8%
  • With income of ≥$55,000: 74.6%

Whole Bean Coffee Drinkers

  • Whole bean coffee is more expensive and of higher quality than ground coffee.
  • Young people prefer drinking gourmet coffee (“regular coffee” brewed from “gourmet quality” beans). In a study, only 19% of respondents aged 18-24 drank traditional non-gourmet coffee within the past day, while within that same range, 37% reported drinking a gourmet beverage within the past day.
  • For respondents aged 60+, past-day consumption of gourmet was 38%, while consumption of non-gourmet was 42%.

Research Strategy

For whole bean coffee drinkers, we tried to find the information using the following strategy:
  • We searched for all coffee drinkers in the US and tried to find any breakdown related to whole bean coffee drinkers. However, there is no such breakdown in the available database.
  • We searched for the features of whole beans and then found an estimate category "gourmet coffee". We searched for this category for customer characteristics and found some information about the age group, but still missing information on gender, income, and education.
  • We tried to find out where people buy whole bean coffee. We searched for big whole bean coffee sellers and coffee companies like Starbucks, CounterCulture Coffee, and Koa Coffee and tried to find their target customers. But information is limited to gender, income, and education.
Due to the absence of specific demographic information for whole bean coffee drinkers, we focused our search to coffee drinkers in general. In the course of our search, we found a study from the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) covering the key demographics of coffee drinkers in the US. It is published in 2016 but the research used credible methods for the study. We also tried to search in sources like PubMed for similar research but the most recent we could find is that from NCBI. Based on a report from the United States Census Bureau, the demographics usually does not change a lot within a year or two. Even though it is not specifically about coffee drinkers, the assumption is that the demographic change rate will be in a similar range.

For the demographic information relating to coffee drinkers in the US, we were not able to find information or any statistics based on marital status. To find this information, we initially searched sources like the National Coffee Association but it is behind a paywall. We then searched for the marital status of coffee drinkers both in North and South America, as we try to find US breakdown or an estimate. But we only found one research based on Federal District, Brazil. It reports the coffee intake of single and married people. We tried to see if it can be used as an estimate for the US, but Brazil and the US are very different countries with different cultures. We do not find any direct evidence to show that coffee drinkers' marital status in these countries would be similar.

Next, we searched for the overall marriage status of people in the US and tried to find the breakdown for coffee drinkers. We found the overall marital status by age and race, but no information can be used to have a breakdown specifically for coffee drinkers. One way to triangulate is by using the age/race information of coffee drinkers to estimate the marital status. But it is highly possible that there are other factors influencing marital status difference of coffee drinkers. Therefore, this approach is not used.


Part
05
of eight
Part
05

Market Size - Edible cannabis: United States

The market size of edible cannabis in the United States was $2.3 billion in 2018, and it had a growth of 130% for 2017-2018.

Cannabis edibles market

  • The cannabis edibles market size was $2.3 billion in 2018.
  • The market size is expected to hit $5.3 billion by 2023.
  • The CAGR of edible cannabis is 130.0 % (calculated using the CAGR calculator).
  • The CAGR from 2018 to 2023 is 18.17 % (calculated using the CAGR calculator).
  • The cannabis edibles are divided into CBD and THC edibles by preparation.
  • Cannabis edibles are much more profitable compared to selling raw flower. Also, the market for edible cannabis is growing at a higher rate in the United States.
  • Consumers in the United States have significantly shifted their spending towards concentrates and edibles category of cannabis.
  • Canada rolled out legalized cannabis in 2018. With that in mind, ArcView Market Research expects that the edible market will be worth $4.1 billion by 2022 in both Canada and the U.S.
  • Branded products like concentrates, edibles, and tropical have surged. In the Colorado cannabis marketplace, these brands are raising so fast.
  • In Colorado, Oregon, and Arizona, over 40% of the market in each state comprises the top five edibles brands of cannabis.

Research Strategy:

To calculate the growth rate, we used the market size of 2017, 2018, and 2023 and CAGR calculator. According to the research, the cannabis edibles comprise THC and CBD edibles, therefore, the market size applies to them.


Part
06
of eight
Part
06

What is the size and the growth of the edible cannabis market in Canada?

According to the Deloitte, Canadian edible cannabis market size is estimated to be approximately $1.6 billion in 2019. The percentage share (market share) of the edible cannabis products in the total Canadian cannabis market grew from 14% in 2017 to about 18% in 2019. Some edible cannabis products in Canada include hard-candies, lollipops, gummies, and chocolate.

MARKET SIZE

  • The market size of the Canadian edible cannabis market is currently estimated to be $1.6 billion.
  • The edible cannabis products' market share in the total Canadian cannabis market grew from 14% in 2017 to 18% in 2019.
  • Canadian edible cannabis products include hard-candies, lollipops, gummies, chocolate, and baked products.
  • According to a survey report, 54% of the cannabis users in Canada are likely to purchase edible cannabis.
  • The cannabis market in Canada is currently worth $7.17 billion.
  • The market size of the Canadian cannabis market was $5.7 billion and 4.9 million in terms of users (TAM).
  • The total Canadian cannabis market size in terms of users is currently 5.3 million or 18% of the total population aged 15 years and above in Canada, growing from 15% in 2018.
  • According to the Canadian Cannabis Act, the limit of THC in packaged edible cannabis is 10 mg of THC per package of edible cannabis and 1000 mg of THC per package for cannabis extracts and topicals.

OTHER HELPFUL findings

US AND CANADA JOINT EDIBLE CANNABIS MARKET SIZE

  • The percentage of edible cannabis products consumed is predicted to increase from 12% in 2017 to 14% by 2022.

RESEARCH STRATEGY

Your research team leveraged publicly available data on the Canadian cannabis market as publicly available in market survey reports, market reports and articles published by reputable media sources, market research firms, and authoritative agencies such as Deloitte, ArcView, PR Newswire, BNN Bloomberg, Cannabis Business Plan, Cannabis Business Times, and Canada Gazette (Government of Canada) to provide the requested information regarding the market size and growth rate of the Canadian edible cannabis products market.
Part
07
of eight
Part
07

Market Size - Coffee: Canada

While publicly published sources on the Canadian coffee market are few and, in some cases, contradictory, the triangulated market is $11.2 billion CAN ($8.4 billion USD), with a triangulated $1.0 billion CAN ($750,000 USD) whole bean market. Below is an explanation of our findings and methodology in generating these values in addition to other useful findings about the Canadian coffee market.

CANADIAN MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH

  • We triangulate, based on current consumption, pricing, and exchange rates that the Canadian coffee market is worth $8.4 billion USD or $11.2 billion CAN (using today's exchange rates).
  • Canada's coffee market is growing at a CAGR of 4.4%, which is consistent with the growth of the global market at 4.3%.

SEGMENTATION AND OTHER KEY FINDINGS


The triangulated market segmentation by sales location is as follows (see below for methodology):

  • $8.7 billion CAN ($11.2 billion x 0.774) is generated in food service, which equals $6.5 billion USD.
  • $2.5 billion CAN ($11.2 billion x 0.226) is generated in grocery and other retail, which equals $1.9 billion USD.
While complete segmentation by dollar amount is not possible due to the nature of the survey, the CAC has also published the following details about Canadian coffee consumption:

Of those who brew their coffee at home:

  • 59% have a drip coffee maker
  • 46% have a single-cup brewer
  • 42% make instant coffee
  • 24% have a French press
  • 13% have an espresso machine
  • 9% have a bean-to-cup brewer
  • 5% have a "pour over"

Among those who drink coffee in a given day:

  • 56% of Caucasians, 36% of South Asians, and 42% of East/Southeast Asians drink traditional coffee.
  • 22% of Caucasians and 32% of South/East/Southeast Asians consumed an espresso-based drink.
  • 8% of Caucasians, 10% of South Asians, and 11% of East/Southeast Asians had a non-espresso-based beverage.

RESEARCH STRATEGY

As we often do in market sizing reports, we began our research by searching for existing market reports on the industry in question. While these reports are usually proprietary and difficult to obtain, the abstracts and press reports usually contain key data points (including the market size and growth) along with other details about the industry that help to guide further research.

In this case, we were unable to locate a market report abstract which provided the market size or growth (see here and here for examples). Therefore, we sought other sources with close ties to the Canadian coffee industry which might provide the answers. However, we found that the market estimates of the available sources varied wildly and were in many cases irreconcilable. To take the two most extreme examples, Statista estimates Canada's 2019 coffee market to be worth $23.447 billion (screenshot available here, if needed), while the Coffee Association of Canada (CAC) estimates the industry at only $6.2 billion. As the latter figure is quoted by Moneysense's Canadian page, it is taken as credible by other authorities, but did not fully explain other data points.

TRIANGULATING THE CANADIAN MARKET

For example, a recent story by USA Today gives the following information about the US and Canada:


If we take these together, we would expect that the Canadian market, being 14% of the US volume (500 / 3,400) at only 75% of the US price per pound would equal $8.4 billion USD ($80 billion x 0.14 x 0.75) or $11.2 billion CAN (using today's exchange rates). That's impossible to reconcile with a Canadian organization's estimate of an only $6.2 billion CAN market, but is also well below Statista's estimate.

We hypothesize, but were unable to prove from existing sources, that the CAC estimate was based on the revenue of CAC members only and does not include the whole country. We further hypothesize, though again cannot prove it, that Statista's estimate accidentally includes coffee shop revenue that comes from sources other than coffee products (e.g., tea and food).

Due to the lack of publicly published information in the existing market reports, the only source we were able to find on the growth of the Canadian coffee market was Statista. While this source almost certainly overestimates the coffee market size (as we have explained above), the rate of market growth is consistent with the world market and so seems to be correct.

WHOLE BEAN COFFEE SEGMENTATION

Despite an extensive search, we were unable to determine the Canadian whole bean coffee market specifically. However, noting that Canada is the world's 10th largest consumer of coffee products and is reasonably similar to the US in consumption, we reasoned that we could triangulate the market reasonably from the global market. The global coffee market is valued at approximately $102.3 billion, of which $9.5 billion, or about 9.3% (9.5 / 102.3), belongs to the whole bean segment. If that percentage holds true of the $11.2 billion CAN coffee market, the whole bean segment would be worth about $1.0 billion (11.2 x 0.093), or about $750,000 USD.

TRIANGULATING OTHER MARKET SEGMENTATION

The CAC breaks down Canada's coffee industry into the following segments:
Assuming that those percentages hold true for non-CAC members (see above on our hypothesis), the segmentation would come down to:

  • $8.7 billion CAN ($11.2 billion x 0.774) is generated in food service, which equals $6.5 billion USD.
  • $2.5 billion CAN ($11.2 billion x 0.226) is generated in grocery and other retail, which equals $1.9 billion USD.
Part
08
of eight
Part
08

Market Size - Coffee: United States

Based on the best information available, the current US coffee market is expected to reach $80.9 billion this year and grow at a CAGR of 4.5% over the next five years. While the US whole bean market size was not publicly published, based on the global market size, we triangulate it at $7.5 billion. The details of this triangulation can be found below.

US MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH

There is some question about the size of the US coffee market, but this is most likely due to a lack of agreed-upon terminology and segmentation. Below are the most salient data points which we have used to estimate the total market.

  • The SCA's "U.S. Coffee Market Overview 2017" report estimated the total coffee market to generate $79-80 billion in annual revenue.
  • This is broadly consistent with Statista's estimate that the 2019 US coffee market was worth $80.916 billion, though it has a lower estimate for 2017, just $73.097 billion (screenshots available here and here if needed).
  • It is also broadly consistent with the National Coffee Association's estimate that consumers spent $74.2 billion on coffee in 2015.
  • The total coffee market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.5% over the next five years.

SEGMENTATION AND OTHER KEY FINDINGS

While there is no universally agreed-upon segmentation of the coffee market, we have found the following salient data points:
  • We triangulate the US whole bean coffee market at about $7.5 billion (see calculation details below); if it follows global trends, this segment is growing faster than the general coffee market at a CAGR of 5.8%.
  • The SCA estimates that 56% of the $80 billion coffee market, or about $44.8 billion, belongs to the specialty coffee segment.
  • They further estimate that $63 billion of the market is for out-of-home consumption while coffee purchased to be brewed and consumed at home is worth $16.6 billion.
  • The coffee shop sector is valued at $21.5 billion by the SCA, but at $45.4 billion by Beverage Daily. We understand the lower market size to refer specifically to the coffee products sold in said shops while the latter is for the coffee shops themselves and includes other beverages and foods.
  • Roast coffee is valued at $66.3 billion while instant coffee comprises $14.6 billion of the market.

RESEARCH STRATEGY

As we often do in market sizing reports, we began our research by searching for existing market reports on the industry in question. While these reports are usually proprietary and difficult to obtain, the abstracts and press reports usually contain key data points (including the market size and growth) along with other details about the industry that help to guide further research.

In this case, there were no shortage of report abstracts and summaries to work from, but we found that the market estimates varied wildly and were in many cases irreconcilable. Some were very obviously wrong. For example, an article by the Becker Group claims that the total roast coffee market is $9.62 billion and the instant coffee market is $3.31 billion, for a total of just under $13 billion, which is far less than the sources we ultimately ended up quoting. Even within the context of that article, the estimate makes no sense: They claim that Americans drink over 140 billion cups of coffee a year, which divided into $13 billion works out to just $0.09 per cup of coffee. Moreover, the same article claims a total US coffee market of $48 billion, almost four times the combined value of roasted and instant coffee. We are uncertain how they arrived at their figures.

We found similar discrepancies among other sources which appeared to low-ball the US market. Ultimately, however, it was an extensive set of statistics from Statista which broke the tie. The data provided by Statista (which we have captured as screenshots here and here) proved to be so detailed, and so in line with other credible sources that it ultimately formed the backbone of our report.

TRIANGULATING THE US WHOLE BEAN MARKET

Despite an extensive search, we were unable to determine the US whole bean coffee market specifically. However, noting that the US is the world's largest consumer of coffee products by a fair margin, we reasoned that we could triangulate the market reasonably from the global market. The global coffee market is valued at approximately $102.3 billion, of which $9.5 billion, or about 9.3% (9.5 / 102.3), belongs to the whole bean segment. If that percentage holds true of the $80.9 billion US coffee market, the whole bean segment would be worth about $7.5 billion (80.9 x 0.093).

ADDITIONAL READING

Finally, we located a for-pay but inexpensive U.S. Coffee Market Retail Value Report from 2017 which, while we did not attempt to access it, may contain more details about the market that will be useful at a low price of $60. Even so, the public excerpts of the report proved very valuable to this brief and so if further details are desired, it may prove to be of benefit.

Sources
Sources

From Part 06
Quotes
  • "Edibles spending in U.S. and Canadian markets reached $1 billion in 2017, according to the report, and the category will continue to grow, reaching $1.5 billion in 2018, $2.2 billion in 2019, $2.8 billion in 2020, $3.5 billion in 2021 and eventually topping $4.1 billion in sales in 2022."
Quotes
  • "In 2017, about 4.9 million Canadians spent an estimated $5.7 billion on cannabis for medical and non-medical purposes. This was equivalent to around $1,200 per cannabis consumer."
  • "Based on the survey, 5.3 million or 18% (comparing to 15% in 2018) of Canadians aged 15 and older reported using cannabis in the first three months. An estimated 47% of cannabis users or 2.5 million Canadians obtained cannabis from legal sources in the first three months of 2019, compared with 23% or 954,000 people over the same period in 2018, before recreation cannabis legalization. Report also shows that the average age of cannabis users is 38 years and consumption rates were still higher among men (22%) than among women (13%)."
Quotes
  • "Deloitte estimates that roughly $1.6 billion will be spent on edibles in Canada, followed by cannabis-infused beverages at $529 million and topicals at $174 million. "
Quotes
  • "The immediate container of cannabis extracts would need to be designed in such a way that the extract could not easily be poured, or drunk directly from the container (thereby mitigating against the risk of accidental consumption). For extracts in liquid form that are not intended to be inhaled and that contain at least 10 mg of THC, the immediate container would need to contain an integrated dispensing mechanism (e.g. a metered spray) that dispenses no more than 10 mg of THC, unless the extract is in the form of discrete units (such as a capsule)."
  • "As described under the “THC limits” section above, a number of restrictions on the amount of THC that could be in a package are proposed (e.g. 10 mg of THC per package of edible cannabis, 1 000 mg of THC per package for cannabis extracts and topicals)."
From Part 07