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## LCFS Credits Market Size

The growth of the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) market up to 2022 is expected to be 43.82%, according to the ICF. The actual growth from 2017 to 2019 was 84.74%. Below is an overview of the findings.

### Growth

- According to Philip Sheehy, Technical Director at ICF, in 2017, the LCFS market value in California was approximately $650 million and was expected to grow to roughly $4 billion by 2022. Leading to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 43.82%.
- Based on data from the California Air Resources Board, the actual growth from 2017 to 2019 was 84.74%. This was calculated from the total dollar amount involved with LCFS transferred (estimated market size) in 2017 (which amounted to $793,870,000) and 2019 (which amounted to $2,709,293,000) using the Omni calculator. [see figures below]
- The growth from 2018 to 2019 was 26.70%. This was calculated from the total dollar amount involved with LCFS transferred (estimated market size) in 2018 and 2019 using the Omni calculator and based on data from the California Air Resources Board and presented below.
- The growth from 2017 to 2018 was 169.35%. This was calculated from the total dollar amount involved with LCFS transferred (estimated market size) in 2017 and 2018 using the Omni calculator and based on data from the California Air Resources Board and presented below.

### LCFS Credit Transfer 2019

- From the monthly LCFS Credit Transfer Activity reports, the market size was calculated by multiplying the average price per credit and the total credit volume transferred each month and afterward adding the monthly figures. The figures and calculations were presented on this spreadsheet for 2017 to 2019.
- In January, the average price per credit was $190 and the total volume of credits transferred was 548,000. The total amount involved was $104,120,000.
- In February, the average price per credit was $186 and the total volume of credits transferred was 747,000. The total amount involved was $138,942,000.
- In March, the average price per credit was $188 and the total volume of credits transferred was 1,677,000. The total amount involved was $315,276,000.
- In April, the average price per credit was $180 and the total volume of credits transferred was 1,299,000. The total amount involved was $233,820,000.
- In May, the average price per credit was $185 and the total volume of credits transferred was 408,000. The total amount involved was $75,480,000.
- In June, the average price per credit was $190 and the total volume of credits transferred was 875,000. The total amount involved was $166,250,000.
- In July, the average price per credit was $193 and the total volume of credits transferred was 1,574,000. The total amount involved was $303,782,000.
- In August, the average price per credit was $194 and the total volume of credits transferred was 929,000. The total amount involved was $180,226,000.
- In September, the average price per credit was $195 and the total volume of credits transferred was 1,176,000. The total amount involved was $229,320,000.
- In October, the average price per credit was $195 and the total volume of credits transferred was 1,990,000. The total amount involved was $388,050,000.
- In November, the average price per credit was $195 and the total volume of credits transferred was 705,000. The total amount involved was $137,475,000.
- In December, the average price per credit was $197 and the total volume of credits transferred was 2,216,000. The total amount involved was $436,552,000.
- The total amount involved in transferring low carbon fuel standard credits (estimated market size) in 2019 was $2,709,293,000.

### LCFS Credit Transfer 2018

- Here, again, the same method described above was applied.
- In January, the average price per credit was $115 and the total volume of credits transferred was 543,000. The total amount involved was $62,445,000.
- In February, the average price per credit was $137 and the total volume of credits transferred was 574,000. The total amount involved was $78,638,000.
- In March, the average price per credit was $122 and the total volume of credits transferred was 1,181,000. The total amount involved was $144,082,000.
- In April, the average price per credit was $129 and the total volume of credits transferred was 927,000. The total amount involved was $119,583,000.
- In May, the average price per credit was $140 and the total volume of credits transferred was 847,000. The total amount involved was $118,580,000.
- In June, the average price per credit was $154 and the total volume of credits transferred was 1,093,000. The total amount involved was $168,322,000.
- In July, the average price per credit was $169 and the total volume of credits transferred was 1,056,000. The total amount involved was $178,464,000.
- In August, the average price per credit was $179 and the total volume of credits transferred was 722,000. The total amount involved was $129,238,000.
- In September, the average price per credit was $171 and the total volume of credits transferred was 1,668,000. The total amount involved was $285,228,000.
- In October, the average price per credit was $181 and the total volume of credits transferred was 1,172,000. The total amount involved was $212,132,000.
- In November, the average price per credit was $177 and the total volume of credits transferred was 1,345,000. The total amount involved was $238,065,000.
- In December, the average price per credit was $183 and the total volume of credits transferred was 2,205,000. The total amount involved was $403,515,000.
- The total amount involved in transferring low carbon fuel standard credits (estimated market size) in 2018 was $2,138,292,000.

### LCFS Credit Transfer 2017

- Also, for 2017 the same method described above was applied.
- In January, the average price per credit was $90 and the total volume of credits transferred was 390,000. The total amount involved was $35,100,000.
- In February, the average price per credit was $93 and the total volume of credits transferred was 323,000. The total amount involved was $30,039,000.
- In March, the average price per credit was $93 and the total volume of credits transferred was 591,000. The total amount involved was $54,963,000.
- In April, the average price per credit was $87 and the total volume of credits transferred was 616,000. The total amount involved was $53,592,000.
- In May, the average price per credit was $80 and the total volume of credits transferred was 366,000. The total amount involved was $29,280,000.
- In June, the average price per credit was $77 and the total volume of credits transferred was 765,000. The total amount involved was $58,905,000.
- In July, the average price per credit was $76 and the total volume of credits transferred was 565,000. The total amount involved was $42,940,000.
- In August, the average price per credit was $85 and the total volume of credits transferred was 595,000. The total amount involved was $50,575,000.
- In September, the average price per credit was $88 and the total volume of credits transferred was 1,326,000. The total amount involved was $116,688,000.
- In October, the average price per credit was $91 and the total volume of credits transferred was 745,000. The total amount involved was $67,795,000.
- In November, the average price per credit was $94 and the total volume of credits transferred was 1,143,000. The total amount involved was $107,442,000.
- In December, the average price per credit was $101 and the total volume of credits transferred was 1,451,000. The total amount involved was $146,551,000.
- The total amount involved in transferring low carbon fuel standard credits (estimated market size) in 2017 was $793,870,000.