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How large is the online life-long education market compared to the offline one?
Hello! Thanks for your question about the size of the online life-long education market compared to the offline one. The most useful sources for this research include industry reports from ReportLinker, GSV Advisors, and Ambient Insight. The short version is that the life-long education market comprises the total global education market of which 5% is made up of online learning. In researching this question, I included further segmentation of the life-long education market into K-12, post-secondary, and continuing education to ensure that I fully answered your question. Below you will find a deep dive of my findings.
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OVERVIEW: LIFELONG LEARNING
I began by researching the term "lifelong learning" to ensure that I answered your question correctly. According to experts like Dr. Muhammad Javed Iqbal, life-long learning is a "process that continues in one form or another throughout life" from birth to death. As formal education has lengthened through longer periods of post-secondary education, so has the understanding of life-long education. Today, life-long education encompasses learning at schools K-12 and universities as well as continuing education once an individual joins the workforce.
Per the World Bank, "Lifelong learning is becoming a necessity in many countries. It is more than just education and training beyond formal schooling. A lifelong learning framework encompasses learning throughout the lifecycle, from early childhood to retirement, and in different learning environments, formal, nonformal, and informal. Opportunities for learning throughout one’s lifetime are becoming increasingly critical for countries to be competitive in the global knowledge economy."
Though they hold a relatively small percent of market shate in the total education market, online options are cited as an important aspect of life-long learning, especially for continuing education once an individual joins the workforce.
To ensure that I'm fully answering your question, I first provide data on the total global education market, offline vs. online, which encompasses the entire life-long education market. Then, I segment the total market into the K-12, post-secondary, and continuing education markets. I end with a brief look into the important role EdTech will continue to have in both the offline and online education spaces.
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TOTAL LIFE-LONG LEARNING MARKET AKA GLOBAL EDUCATION INDUSTRY
IBIS Capital valued the total global education industry at $4.7 trillion in 2013. GSV-Advisors subsequently calculated that the value of the total global education market was $4.9 trillion in 2015 at a C.A.G.R. of 2.11%. Applying that same C.A.G.R. generates an estimated size of about $5.1 trillion for 2017.
Meanwhile, according to ReportLinker the total online learning market was worth $166 billion in 2012 and is predicted to reach $255 billion in 2017 growing at a 23% C.A.G.R.
Backing into the value of the entire education industry, the total offline education industry was worth $4.79 trillion in 2016 at 95% of the total market compared to online learning.
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SEGMENTING THE TOTAL MARKET
Life-Long learning, though, can be broken down further into K-12, post-secondary, and continuing education- to ensure I fully answer your question, I researched each of those below.
K-12 EDUCATION
GSV Advisors estimates that the total K-12 education market was worth $2.2 trillion in 2012 and will be worth $2.9 trillion by 2017 at a C.A.G.R. of 8%.
It further estimates that K-12 e-learning was worth $16.6 billion in 2012 and will be worth $69 billion in 2017 at a C.A.G.R. of 33%.
As such, K-12 e-learning comprises 2.4% of the total K-12 education market.
POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION
GSV Advisors estimates that the total post-secondary education market was worth $1.5 trillion in 2012 and will be worth $2.2 trillion by 2017 at a C.A.G.R. of 8%.
It further estimates that post-secondary education e-learning was worth $48.8 billion in 2012 and will be worth $149 billion in 2017 at a C.A.G.R. of 25%.
As such, post-secondary e-learning comprises 6.8% of the total post-secondary education market.
CONTINUING EDUCATION
While life-long learning refers to all learning including through the formal system and after, you may be particularly interested in continuing education as that is where online courses are particularly in demand.
GSV Advisors provides data for total corporate learning and corporate e-learning, which would include professional training paid for by corporations. It estimates that the total corporate (including government) education market was worth $356.6 billion in 2012 and will be worth $524 billion by 2017 at a C.A.G.R. of 8%.
It further estimates that corporate education e-learning was worth $25.5 billion in 2012 and will be worth $37.5 billion in 2017 at a C.A.G.R. of 8%.
As such, corporate online learning comprises 7.2% of the total corporate education market.
However, the total continuing education market is larger than just corporate training, as it also includes individuals seeking out their own training courses. Ambient Insight values the total (corporate and individual) self-paced online learning market at $46.9 billion; this value only includes instructional products not "student information systems, classroom management systems, student services platforms." The U.S. has the highest market share at $23.3 billion or 49.9%. Though in recent years China has been increasingly interested in online learning tools.
Unfortunately I was unable to find an exact value for the total continuing education market. However, I found it interesting that online courses were frequently mentioned in sources on continuing education, indicating that e-learning is particularly relevant in the continuing education space. A report by Entangled Solutions suggests online learning is popular for continuing education, because "adult learners... seek on-demand learning through courses and programs that are flexible and immediately accessible."
Totaling up the e-learning values from GSV Advisors and Ambient Insight yields a total value of $265 billion. This is slightly above the earlier prediction from ReportLinker of $255 billion, but close enough to indicate that these sources are reliably capturing the online learning market.
ED-TECH INDUSTRY
You may also be interested to learn about how technology is enhancing education in and outside the classroom. EdTech stands for the creation and use of "products/apps/tools to enhance learning, pedagogy and instruction. It is not replacing any current practices, but it is the use of those tools to aid in the delivery of education." EdTech is currently valued at $157 billion and poised to grow to $252 billion by 2020 at a C.A.G.R. of 17%. Growth in EdTech will be partly driven by the increased use of smartphones and use of online technologies.
The growth in EdTech is relevant to you, because the EdTech industry overlaps with online learning by including MOOC's and other online tools. Although total online learning alone is a small percentage of the total education market, it may be increasingly used in offline settings. This indicates that the boundaries between online and offline education learning will blur moving forward with online tools being increasingly used in offline settings.
CONCLUSION
To wrap it up, online learning courses hold a small percentage of the total life-long education market compared with traditional, in-person education. The total life-long education market will be worth $5.1 trillion in 2017, with $255-65 billion or 5% being online courses. However, qualitative reports indicate that online tools are increasingly relevant particularly for continuing education.
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