Industry Research

Part
01
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Part
01

Global Disruption - Past and Future: Hospitality/Hotel Industry

Three of the biggest industry changes and/or disruptors in the last five years for the global hospitality/hotel industry have been online aggregators such as Airbnb and Expedia, the rise of the solo traveler, and personalized experiences. Two possible disruptors and/or changes predicted in the coming five years or more, for the global hospitality/hotel industry include Augmented and Virtual Reality, and the Internet of Things.

GLOBAL DISRUPTORS IN THE HOSPITALITY/HOTEL INDUSTRY OVER THE PAST FIVE YEARS

ONLINE AGGREGATORS

  • The hospitality/hotel industry has been transforming due to disruptions over the past two decades. Online aggregators such as Airbnb and Expedia have impacted distribution channels by taking value away from hoteliers. They have built firm relationships with customers which have resulted in hoteliers having to pay to avail access to these travelers.
  • Airbnb is considered to be a key disruptor in the hospitality/hotel industry, "making the competitive landscape tougher than ever". Lodging properties that are listed on Airbnb are found to have different rules and regulations as compared to those of traditional hotels.
  • Over 84% of consumers claimed that they book through travel packages through bundling sites such as Expedia instead of going directly to a hotel or airline.
  • In 2018, it was found that global digital travel sales rose by 10.4%, reaching $694.41 billion. Over 82% of all travel bookings made in 2018 were completed through a mobile app or website, without any human interaction.

RISE OF THE SOLO TRAVELLER

  • According to an article published by Solo Traveler World, the number of Google searches for solo travel has increased considerably from January 2015 to December 2017, indicating a 40% increase in searches over this period. It was also found that two out of every three travels mentioned on social media are made by solo travelers.
  • Over 58% of millennials across the world tend to travel alone as compared to 47% of older generations. Industry studies have found that 26% of female millennials have already traveled solo, while 27% of them claimed that they would consider traveling alone in the future.
  • In a study conducted by Booking.com, over 34% of respondents revealed that solo travel is one of the "top five trips that they have already been on and would like to go on again".
  • According to a study conducted by MMGY Global, it has been found that one in every four people claim they will travel solo in the next year.
  • The traveler's need for unique and personalized experiences has led to the rise of the independent traveler.

PERSONALISED EXPERIENCES

  • Artificial intelligence (AI) has helped specifically optimize guests’ digital interactions. By analyzing and tracking customer trends and behavior across multiple hotel properties, based on guest history, conversations, interactions on site, booking preferences, geography, and more, AI and machine learning algorithms have helped develop highly personalized experiences.
  • In 2015, American Express Travel reported that over 83% of millennials will allow brands to track their behavior and habits in exchange for a more personalized experience.
  • The industry has seen the results of these improved personalization efforts, including an increased likelihood of repeated visits, increased user satisfaction, and a higher booking probability, leading to increased brand loyalty.
  • Over 90% of global travelers say they expect a unique and personalized experience every time they book their travel.
  • It was also found that over 70% of millennials would rather spend on unique experiences than on tangible products. Studies have shown that 57% of travelers aged 35 and above, feel the same way.

GLOBAL DISRUPTORS IN THE HOSPITALITY/HOTEL INDUSTRY IN THE NEXT FIVE YEARS

AUGMENTED AND VIRTUAL REALITY

  • According to Adobe Digital Insights' analysis of social engagements, consumers are craving experiences that adopt virtual reality and augmented reality technologies. The study has shown that social mentions for travel and AR/VR technology-related experiences have increased by 13% year-over-year.
  • Using virtual reality technology, travelers can experience new destinations before actually planning the trip to reduce the risk of disappointment. Once travelers arrive at the destination, virtual reality systems can enrich their travel experiences. Hotels can improve their services by displaying appropriate information on the available excursions, facilities, and travel/guide agents such as tour operators.
  • Historical sites and museums can adopt virtual reality technology to add information and entertainment to their existing services.
  • In some hotels in the United Kingdom, maps of the room interiors can be found to help travelers check their requirements before checking in. Holiday Inn has developed an in-house augmented reality hotel experience which enables guests to direct their smartphones and view virtual depictions of celebrities in the hotel.

INTERNET OF THINGS

  • The Internet of Things (IoT) extends internet connectivity to general and everyday devices and appliances. These devices collect data and interact over the internet, transforming "previously unintelligent devices into ‘smart’ devices".
  • Internet-enabled thermostats are currently being used in the hospitality market. These smart thermostats are utilized to automatically adjust temperatures at both, check-in and check-out times. They can also be adjusted in response to temperature changes caused by opening the windows or the sun. This concept is also being used for lighting to improve energy efficiency capabilities during daylight hours.
  • IoT in hospitality has the potential to help with security or emergency issues. IoT-connected messaging can alert administrators to a power outage or a potential gas leak at their hotels, keeping travelers, guests, and employees safe from danger.
  • In the near future, IoT technology will be able to alert the hotel management along with the local law enforcement to attempted theft, break-in, or an unregistered guest present on hotel grounds, thereby, ensuring the safety of guests and employees.


RESEARCH STRATEGY

We began by looking for pre-compiled lists of some of the biggest industry changes and/or disruptors in the hospitality/hotel industry in market-specific websites such as HospitalityNet, HotelierMagazine, CMO.com, INC, and HospitalityTech; reports from media websites such as Forbes and HuffingtonPost; and industry research reports from websites such as Markets and Markets. An extensive search through these channels provided us with a broad overview of the ongoing trends rather than disruptors that made an impact on the industry over the past five years. On further search, it was noticed that some of these disruptors have already made a big impact on the industry while others were just emerging and would grow to create a larger impact in the coming years.

First, we noted that most changes and disruptors for this industry are technology-based. The most common theme found in the available lists was that online aggregators like Airbnb and Expedia have had a large impact on the industry. Supporting data was obtained to closely tie the growth of online agents with the need for personalized experiences, thus providing us with two of the largest disruptors in the hospitality industry. Most reports and articles indicated an underlying theme of millennials being extensive travelers, a fact that the hospitality industry is taking full advantage of. Numerous industry studies were made on the subject of "solo traveler", a trend that that has become significant over the past five years.

Two of the biggest changes in the coming five years or more, for the hospitality/hotel industry, has also been found to be technological. The two aspects chosen as the biggest disruptors are augmented/virtual reality and the Internet of Things. These two disruptors were chosen as the "biggest" because hoteliers have already begun implementing applications of these technologies across the world. It is expected that these technologies will significantly evolve in the coming years.
Part
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Part
02

Global Disruption - Past and Future: Senior/Assisted Living Industry

Disruptors that have affected the senior assisted living industry in the last five years include the physical and cognitive abilities of the aging population, technology, and the rise of two different business models. Disruptors that the industry sees coming in the next five years include a growing home health care industry and the expectations of baby boomers for their lifestyle in these facilities.

DISRUPTORS IN SENIOR ASSISTED LIVING IN LAST FIVE YEARS

PHYSICAL AND COGNITIVE ABILITY OF RESIDENTS
TECHNOLOGY
BUSINESS MODELS


FORECASTED DISRUPTORS FOR SENIOR ASSISTED LIVING

GROWING HOME HEALTH CARE INDUSTRY
  • More and more, seniors are choosing to stay in their homes as long as possible and changes in residence and community planning, technology, and the growth of the home health care industry are making that possible.
  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) predicts that, over the coming decade, there will be a job growth of 70% for home health and personal care aides. With personal support workers available at reasonable prices, and home nursing services on call, it is a more affordable alternative for seniors who do not need constant monitoring.
BABY BOOMERS
Part
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Part
03

Global Disruption - Past and Future: Automotive/Mobility Industry

Three of the biggest industry changes and/or disruptors in the last five years for the automotive/mobility industry, globally, are mobility as a service, electromobility, and predictive maintenance. Two possible (forecasted) disruptors and/or changes predicted in the coming five years or more, for the automotive/mobility industry, globally, are connected cars as dynamic information platforms, and shared mobility. Detailed information is presented in the next section.

THE BIGGEST INDUSTRY CHANGES AND DISRUPTORS IN THE LAST 5 YEARS

MOBILITY AS A SERVICE

  • Mobility as a service in the automobile industry is growing. The formation and success of private and public ride-sharing startups, such as Lyft and Uber, as disrupted the current landscape of the automotive/mobility industry, by shifting the trend away from people owning cars, to them sharing and using service-oriented forms of transit. Mobility as a service has helped people to save financially by removing expenses such as the big upfront cost of buying a car, to maintenance, registration, and licensing costs.
  • This has led to the formation of partnerships between some car manufacturers and ride-sharing startups, and investment in the companies by car manufacturers. Other car manufacturers, such as Volkswagen, have created their own ride-sharing apps to tap into the trend. Regular improvements in the technology used to make autonomous vehicles will push "global markets for mobility as a service to grow significantly over the next decade."

ELECTROMOBILITY

  • Electric vehicles (EVs) have existed since the early 20th century but lost out on being the dominant vehicles, due to price and competitive disadvantages. When the Nissan Leaf was introduced into the market in 2010, it enabled EVs to re-enter the market. 2 million EVs were on the roads by 2017, and it is estimated that around 60 million vehicles will be in stock by 2025. EVs such as Tesla can be considered as disruptive as they are superior, more expensive, and they can compete with the traditional car industry through cost reductions.
  • The EV’s more disruptive element is the connection to the grid. The probability to connect an EV to the grid can promote more decentralized generation of power, which can make it easier for small grids to be self-sufficient. EVs are considered to be superior products compared to the traditional car in-part because the battery can be used to provide power to an average American home, for example, when parked. It can also be used to introduce renewable energy, such as solar and wind power. EVs, therefore, can be used both as a provider of power and storage, depending on the need.

PREDICTIVE MAINTENANCE

  • Car maintenance today has been automated as the use of advanced self-diagnostic systems inform the owner of the vehicle when maintenance is needed or when a certain part needs replacing. This is considered as a disruptor as mechanical failures have reduced as the vehicle system alerts the driver when there is a problem that needs fixing before the car breaks down, enabling drivers to proactively service the car, and get optimum performance, leading to a long life for the vehicle.

DISRUPTORS/CHANGES PREDICTED IN THE COMING 5 YEARS OR MORE

CONNECTED CARS AS DYNAMIC INFORMATION PLATFORMS

  • Connected cars are predicted to become dynamic information platforms that will provide drivers with better experiences, and also create more value by creating new approaches for businesses. In the coming years, conventional vehicles will progress to become enveloped with information that will provide drivers and passengers with new and interesting experiences that will be augmented by artificial intelligence, and that will go beyond what is possible today.
  • An example is when connected cars will allow certain restaurants to advertise to lunchtime travelers that are hungry and traveling along a given route. New forms of car interactions, such as miniature holographic waiters and vocal commands, will enable restaurants to provide menu options and food preordering to save time when the traveling diners arrive.

SHARED MOBILITY

  • McKinsey & Company forecast a situation where one out of ten cars sold in 2030 will be a shared vehicle and this will see shared mobility becoming disruptive. Shared mobility is forecast to change the future of the automotive/mobility industry and transport system, especially in urban areas that are densely populated. This is likely to marginally reduce automobile car sales in general, and the automotive industry will be required to partner with other players in the market to make the most out of the platforms and ecosystems that will exist in the future.
  • Shared mobility will be a key driver of growth and profitability in the coming years in the auto markets, and will surpass the profitability potential of the traditional car manufacturing industry. According to an Accenture research, by 2030, revenues from car manufacturing and selling will be only marginally higher than compared to today, at approximately €2 trillion. In addition, profits made from car sales will reduce from around €126 billion to €122 billion. In contrast, mobility services revenue is forecast to climb to almost €1.2 billion. trillion.
  • Shared mobility will be disruptive as it is a service with lower costs and lower product performance than the traditional service. Shared mobility could outperform the personal vehicle in future as the industry keeps improving, and the customer base continues to increase.

Research Strategy:

To provide three of the biggest industry changes and/or disruptors in the last five years, as well as two possible (forecasted) disruptors and/or changes predicted in the coming five years or more for the automotive/mobility industry globally, we searched industry databases, reports, and publications such as Accenture, Science Direct, Forbes, and McKinsey & Company, for information that would fulfill the research criteria. We found different sources that reviewed changes and disruptions in the global automotive/mobility industry. We chose only findings that were repeated more than once and those that were found in reputable sources such as Forbes and McKinsey & Company.
Part
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Part
04

Global Growth - Past and Future: Hospitality/Hotel Industry

Over the past five years, the global hotel industry has grown consistently and substantially. The global hotel industry is projected to continue to grow over the next five years as well, including across some of its specific segments.

Findings

1. The Last Five Years

  • The global hotel industry's market size in 2014 was $466.57 billion.
  • In 2015, the global hotel industry's market size was $527.06 billion.
  • The market size of the global hotel industry grew to $562.99 billion in 2016.
  • In 2017, the global hotel industry attained a market size of $570.18 billion.
  • Between 2014 and 2018, the number of hotel rooms globally increased by 981,772 (16,966,280 in 2018 minus 15,984,508 in 2014).
  • Between 2014 and 2018, the number of hotels comprising the global hotel industry increased by 5,766 (184,299 in 2018 minus 178,533 in 2014).
  • In terms of the hotel industry metric revenue per available room (RevPar), regions that exhibited a positive growth with such in 2018 were South & Central America at a 24.1% increase, followed by Africa at 12.1% growth, Canada with a 5.3% increase, Europe at 5.2% growth, the U.S. with 2.9% growth, Asia Pacific at 1.4% growth, and the Caribbean with 1.2% growth. Regions that saw a decrease in RevPar in 2018 were the Middle East with a 5.7% decrease and Mexico with a 1.9% decrease.
  • As of 2018, the five largest hotel groups accounted for 24.9% of the global hotel market. That is up from their 19.8% market share in 2014. In the interim years, their market share was 22.7% in 2015, 23.2% in 2016, and 23.8% in 2017.

2. The Next Five Years

  • A market research report published in 2016 projected a 4% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the global hotel industry between 2015 and 2021. We included that statistic in this section because it applies to both the past and future industry growth.
  • A 2019 market research report projected a 4.6% CAGR for the global hotel industry between 2019 and 2026.
  • The global luxury hotel market, in particular, is projected to have a 4% CAGR between 2018 and 2023.
  • The global beach hotels market, in particular, has a projected market size of $201.359 billion by 2023 (up from $163.296 billion in 2016).
  • The CAGR for the global beach hotels market between 2016 and 2023 was estimated at 3.2%.

Your research team applied the following strategy:

We compiled the above data about how the global hotel industry has fluctuated over the past five years and how it's projected to fluctuate in the next five years by consulting several market research reports. Throughout our research, we focused on finding data that is global in scope. One quasi exception to that is the regional RevPar data that we provided, but collectively that data is global in scope as well because it covers numerous regions worldwide. In addition to providing data about the global hotel industry overall, we also included some data that we found about specific segments of the global hotel industry, in order to provide all the relevant information that we found about the market. The first four statistics included in the section pertaining to the last five years are also included in this Google Doc, in case the link to that Statista data doesn't work for some reason. Together, this research process provided us with the information we sought about the global hotel industry's growth over the past five years and its projected, continued growth for the upcoming five years.
Part
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Part
05

Global Growth - Past and Future: Senior/Assisted Living Industry

The assisted living industry grew from $3,979.33 million in 2014 to $7,830.75 million in 2019 and is expected to reach $15,411 million in 2024 at a CAGR of 14.5%.

Global Growth — Past and Future: Senior/Assisted Living Industry:

Past Growth (2014 to 2019):

  • The assisted living industry grew from $3,979.33 million in 2014 to $7,830.75 million in 2019 at a CAGR of 14.5%. (Estimated)
  • The mean number of assisted living beds rose by more than 13% between 2007 and 2014.
  • The number of assisted living facilities rose from 11,276 in 2007 to 28,000 in 2014.
  • The assisted living industry stabilized in 2014 and the increasing number of people retiring contributed to the growth of the industry in subsequent years.

Future Growth (2019 to 2024):

  • The assisted living industry is expected to grow from $7,830.75 million in 2019 to $15,411.0 million in 2024 at a CAGR of 14.5%. (Estimated)
  • The increase of the aging population and the demand for managed care is driving the growth in the global assisted living market.
  • As the health of people deteriorate with their increasing age, it becomes difficult to take care of them, resulting in a higher demand for long-term care.
  • The global assisted living facilities market is growing due to the rising requirements for quality inspection and the surge in demand.

Regional information:

  • Asia assisted living market in 2021: US$ 4,341.74 million (Estimated)
  • U.S. assisted living market in 2021: US$ 2,603.69 million (Estimated)
  • EU assisted living market in 2021: US$ 1,910.50 million (Estimated)

Research Strategy:

We started the research by searching for industry reports, market studies and media publications on the senior/assisted living industry. We came across a report published by Technopolis that provided the global and regional market size for assisted living industry for the years 2017 and 2021. The report states that the global assisted living market was valued at €5,300 million in 2017 and is expected to reach €9,105 million in 2021. Further, the Asia market would be €3,852 million; US would be €2,310 million and EU would be 1,695 million.
Since the market value were provided in Euros, we first converted all the available market values into US$ using a currency converter. Below are the converted market values:
  • Global assisted living market in 2017: $5,973.48 million
  • Global assisted living market in 2021: $10,261.99 million
  • Asia assisted living market in 2021: $4,341.74 million
  • U.S. assisted living market in 2021: $2,603.69 million
  • EU assisted living market in 2021: $1,910.50 million
Using the global market values for 2017 and 2021, we calculated the CAGR for this period using a CAGR calculator, which was 14.5%. With this, we were able to calculate the historic market value for 2014 and the value for 2024. Below are the calculations: For calculating the historical value, we used the following formula:
current value = past value * (1 + growth rate)
  • Therefore, the value for 2016 = current value (2017) / (1 + growth rate) = $5,973.48 / (1 + 14.5%) = $5,217.01 million
  • The value for 2015 = $5,217.01 / (1 + 14.5%) = $4,556.34 million
  • The value for 2014 = $4,556.34 / (1 + 14.5%) = $3,979.33 million
For calculating the forecast value for 2019 and 2024, we used the available market size for 2017, the CAGR calculated above and imputed the values in a reverse CAGR calculator. Below are the values obtained from the reverse CAGR calculator:
  • Global assisted living market in 2019: $7,830.75 million
  • Global assisted living market in 2024: $15,411.0 million
Apart from the specific financial information, we have also included insights on how the market grew in the past years and the drivers that would influence the growth of the market in the future.
Part
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Part
06

Global Growth - Past and Future: Automotive/Mobility Industry

From 2019 to 2024, the automotive industry is expected to grow from 99 million vehicles to 115 million, growing at an estimated CAGR of 3.04%. Meanwhile, the carsharing industry is projected to rise from 157,000 vehicles in 2018 to 427,000 in 2025, growing at an estimated CAGR of 15.37%.

GLOBAL GROWTH - PAST AND FUTURE: AUTOMOTIVE/MOBILITY INDUSTRY

AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY

Past Growth (2014 to 2019):

  • The automotive industry expanded from 88 million vehicles in 2014 to 99 million in 2019. As a result, the sector grew at a CAGR of 2.38% from 2014 to 2019.

Future Growth (2019 to 2024):

  • Globally, the automotive industry is anticipated to increase from 99 million vehicles in 2019 to around 115 million in 2024, growing at a projected CAGR of 3.04% during the period.

Growth segments and drivers:

  • From 2019 to 2024, the Greater China region (Taiwan, Hong Kong, and China) is expected to undergo the highest growth rate with about 5.2%, according to Consultancy UK.
  • Regions such as South Asia and South America are projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.5% and 4.3%, respectively, during the forecast period.
  • North America and Europe are expected to register the lowest growth rates with 0.1% and 1.7%, respectively, during the forecast period.
  • Along with the conventional automotive industry, the electric vehicle segment is forcasted to expand significantly in the next few years.

MOBILITY AS A SERVICE (CARSHARING) INDUSTRY

Past Growth (2014 to 2018):

  • The carsharing industry rose from 104,125 vehicles in 2014 to 157,000 in 2018, which indicates a CAGR growth of roughly 10.81% during that time span.

Future Growth (2018 to 2025):

  • As reported by Shared Mobility, the carsharing industry is projected to expand from 157,000 vehicles in 2018 to 427,000 in 2025. Hence, the sector is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of approximately 15.37%.

Growth segments and drivers:

  • Asia accounts for the largest carsharing region with more than "40% of all carsharing vehicles" in operation in the area.
  • Europe serves as the second largest market for carsharing as it has about 37% of the worldwide fleet positioned in the area.
  • The overall free-floating membership has risen by about 76%, according to Shared Mobility.
  • Both Peer-to-peer fleets as well as memberships have witnessed significant growth over the last few years.

RESEARCH STRATEGY:

Our research began with studying the industry definition. We reviewed a document from Accenture that revolves around the overall automotive sector and mobility as a service. Therefore, we focused on finding information for those two segments. Below are the details of the information found, along with the calculations done for each of the industries:

Regarding the automotive industry, we came across a report published by Frost and Sullivan that provided us with the market size in 2014. Furthermore, we found an additional article from Consultancy UK that contained the market sizes for 2019 and 2024. Therefore, we were able to calculate the past growth (from 2014 to 2019) and future growth (from 2019 to 2024) percentages using a CAGR calculator. Utilizing this strategy, we determined the following CAGRs:
  • Past Growth (2014 to 2019): 2.38%
  • Future Growth (2019 to 2024): 3.04%
While searching for industry reports on the MaaS in the automotive industry, we found a report published by Deloitte (Source 5, page 117), which mentioned that mobility as a service (MaaS) in the automotive sector is known as carsharing. Additionally, it provided us with the number of vehicles in the carsharing industry in 2014. Moreover, we came across another report from Shared Mobility (Source 4), which presented the number of vehicles in the carsharing industry in 2018 and 2025. Using a CAGR calculator (Source 6), we found the following CAGRs:
  • Past Growth (2014 to 2018): 10.81%
  • Future Growth (2018 to 2025): 15.37%

Part
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Part
07

Global Growth - Future: Marriott International

Marriott International with 2018 revenue of $20.8 billion is looking to expand its hotel portfolio to more than 1,700 hotels worldwide by 2022. It is estimated that the revenue would grow at the rate of 6.65% and reach $28.6 billion by 2023.

GROWTH FORECAST FOR NEXT FIVE YEARS

  • The earnings for company are expected to grow at an average annual rate of 7.5% with a 12.7% in 2020 as compared to 2019 earnings
  • While the revenues are expected to grow at a rate of 6.5% with an estimated revenue of $28.6 billion by 2023 according to future forecasts.
  • Marriott is also planning to add between 275,000 and 295,000 rooms by 2021 which is expected to contribute to a fee revenue of $400 million in 2021.

FACTORS FOR GROWTH AND FUTURE POTENTIALS

  • Marriott International plans to expand its operations in Mexico, which is its most successful market in the Latin American region, by introducing 50 properties consisting of 8,000 rooms across the country. The company has also seen great benefits through its Loyalty Programme and Caribbean and Latin American region has more 4.1 million members.
  • The company has the 2020 vision plan for the Asia Pacific region with already 100 hotels being introduced in the region in 2019. With three of the world's four most populous countries lying in this region, the company can capitalize on the global travel trends.
  • For India, which is the second largest market in Asia Pacific, the company is planning to add about 50 hotels in the next four years of which 30% would be done through conversion and re branding method.
  • Among the lodging industry, Marriott is the largest branded residential company and is planning to grow its portfolio by more than 70% and in nearly 40 countries by 2022. This segments will now include not just luxury boutique hotels, but also non-luxury brands such as Marriott Hotels, Sheraton, Westin etc.
  • Marriott aims to reinforce its commitment to Africa by investing over $250 million over coming 5 years and increasing its portfolio by 50% in the region.

RESEARCH STRATEGY

Five year growth forecasts for Marriott International was not directly available through our extensive research. We looked at annual reports and financial tables published by the company and identified the revenue growth in the current year as well as for the past 10 years. However, we were able to identify growth in earnings (profit) for the next five years through NASDAQ and have included that in our findings.

In order to triangulate the growth of Marriott International for the coming five years, we first identified the current revenue for the year 2018 which $20,758,000,000. Next, we analyzed the revenue of the company for the past 10 years and calculated the CAGR for this time period using CAGR calculator. For the starting value we entered the revenue for 2009 $10,908,000,000 and for ending value we entered the revenue for 2018 $20,758,000,000. The number of periods in this case would be 10. CALCULATION: 2018-2019= 10 years. Based on these figures, the calculator states that the CAGR for 10 years would be 6.65 %.

Now using this CAGR, we can calculate the growth forecast for the coming five years with the help of Reverse CAGR Calculator tool. Here, we first enter the starting value, which in this case would be 2018 revenue, i.e., $20,758,000,000 and the CAGR would be the one which we just calculated above, 6.65. We would then enter the number of periods which is 5 years since we require the five-year forecast. The calculator will then show the revenue forecast for the next five years with revenue of $28,641,107,447 in 2023. The next part was to analyze the drivers of this growth and the future potential for the company. For this, we looked at various press and financial releases by the company specifically mentioning the future expansion plans and revenue growth strategies.
Part
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Part
08

Global Growth - Future: Sunrise Senior Living

As per Chris Winkle, CEO of Sunrise Senior Living, in the next five to ten years, the company will be growing rapidly. The company's strategic growth activity over the next approximately two years include the opening of ten new communities in coastal metropolitan markets i.e. Bethesda, MD, Chevy Chase, MD, Burke, VA, Bridgewater, NJ, Issaquah, WA, Summit, NJ, Shrewsbury, NJ, Wilton, CT, Fairfield, CT, and Newton, MA. A detailed overview of our findings and research methodology follows below.

GLOBAL GROWTH OF SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING OVER THE NEXT 5 PLUS YEARS

  • In a 2018 interview excerpt of Chris Winkle, CEO of Sunrise Senior Living, he said that “if we look at ourselves for the next five to ten years, we’re going to be growing rapidly, but everything we’re also going to be doing is building the foundation for the future. So one of the things we saw way back then was that if we do all the things we think we can do, and we’re kind of starting year five into that ten-year growth plan.”
  • The senior living industry has an estimated revenue of $56.1 billion with a compounded annual growth rate of 4.7%.

FACTORS FOR GROWTH

FACTORS FOR GROWTH POTENTIAL

RESEARCH STRATEGY:

METHODOLOGY

Even though there was information related to the growth activities and potential growth factors of Sunrise Senior Living, data regarding the general forecast for the company in terms of growth and potential in the coming five years or more, globally was unavailable. However, we were able to find an interview excerpt of the company's CEO that pointed to Sunsrise Senior Living growing rapidly in the near future, but we were unable to find any quantitative data to corroborate what the CEO reported.

We identified Sunrise's factors for growth based on the strategic growth activities of the company that were mentioned in the company's news. Additionally, we identified Sunrise's growth potential based on the company's future plans, expansion plans, and plans that affect the growth currently and are expected to affect growth into the future as well as per industry reports.

SEARCH STRATEGY

We started research by looking for relevant information in industry reports like Market Watch, Business Wire, Research and Markets, Tribaux, Reuters among others. We targeted these reports because they contained industry growth trends for the years 2019-2023, 2019-2025. The idea was to check for industry and company specific data which are generally reported by the targeted sources. Through this strategy, we were able to find the company profile for Sunrise Senior Living, but it was limited behind by a paywall.

We later scoured through the company's website, media releases, and annual reports to identify if the company has released any information regarding the growth rate, future plans, future predictions related to revenue, growth, drivers and challenges. Although we were able to identify information regarding the growth activity, growth potential, and other qualitative information, there was no information on the general forecast for Sunrise Senior Living in terms of growth and potential globally in the near future.

We then looked for third party media reports and case studies from Senior Housing News, J.D. Power Senior Living Study among others to see if there was any reported data on the general forecast for Sunrise Senior Living in terms of growth and potential. Even though these resources provided information on the progress of the company compared to its competitors, there was no projections of Sunrise Senior Living in terms of growth and potential in the coming 5 years or more.

TRIANGULATION

In our final strategy, we decided to take a triangulation approach in searching for information that we could use to highlight the growth and potential of Sunrise Senior Living over the next few years. This included future projections of revenue and compound annual growth rate for the company. However, our search for financial information was not successful because the only available information was for the past year on Owler.

We then tried to search for information on the general forecast for Sunrise Senior Living by identifying alternate data points that we could use in triangulation. Here, we looked for the growth in terms of people the company serves/ number of facilities among others from CBRE:United States Commercial Real Estate Services, Senior Housing News among others, but although these resources mentioned the current number of units/beds managed, properties and qualitative data providing information on growth, there was no previous numbers available/mentions of growth projections that we could use in triangulation. Consequently, due to lack of publicly available data we were unable to identify the general forecast for Sunrise Senior Living in terms of growth and potential in the coming 5 years or more, globally.

We also attempted to identify relevant information from older sources as well as strategies that were implemented and failed to yield positive results. The idea here was to locate any information regarding the growth rate mentioned in the earlier years that accounted for the next five years as well. Through this strategy, we identified a 2018 interview excerpt of the CEO of Sunrise Senior Living that provided us with a general sense of his expectations in terms of the company's growth and potential.

WHAT DATA IS UNAVAILABLE AND WHY
  • Data regarding the general forecast for Sunrise Senior Living in terms of growth and potential in the coming 5 years or more, globally was publicly unavailable.
  • This is potentially due to competitive reasons and the company being privately held meaning it is not compelled to disclose such information publicly.
  • This can also be because the Sunrise Senior Living Management Company was sold to a group led by Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and Beecken Petty O’Keefe and Company, with Health Care REIT retaining a 20% interest.
Part
09
of nine
Part
09

Global Growth - Future: BMW

BMW is growing as a company, breaking its own sales records, growing in the electric vehicle industry, and developing its electric vehicles in China. The growth factors stem from the companies strategies of electrifying 25 models, selling half a million models by the end of the decade, and its "two plus four" strategy in China.

GENERAL FORECAST

FACTORS FOR GROWTH POTENTIAL

FACTORS OF GROWTH

  • BMW has signed a letter of intent with Great Wall Motor, a Chinese automotive group that can produce the electric Mini in China. This agreement paves the way for the electric Mini brand in China.
  • In 2019, the electric Mini brand will begin production in the company's Oxford plant.
  • BMW M GmbH achieved new sales records selling 102,780 of these vehicles. The top vehicles sold were BMW X3 M40i, BMW M2, and BMW M5.
  • Rolls-Royce motor cars had their best-ever sales in 2018 up 22.2%, and the BMW Motorrad also achieved record sales delivering 165,566 units worldwide.
  • Asia drove BMW's sales growth in 2018 having delivered 84,716 units to that region, which was an increase of 8.8% from the last year.
  • BMW's strategy in China is called the "two plus four" strategy, which is two Chinese joint ventures and four areas of innovation. The four areas of innovation are ACES — autonomous, connected, electrified, and services/shared.
Sources
Sources

From Part 02
Quotes
  • "Clients are ten per cent more likely to be over the age of 90, and are more likely to be living with some kind of cognitive impairment."
Quotes
  • "I’m just struck by every discussion about senior living and senior housing, and the absence of a three-letter word. FUN. And, I just want to say as I’m reading here, some other words are missing. Spirit of adventure. Paradise."
  • "People, even at 88, the average age of those in assisted living, want adventure. They want new. They want discovery."
From Part 03
Quotes
  • "Disrupting the current landscape of the automotive industry are independent are startups like Uber and Lyft, which lend to the shift away from privately owned cars and toward the service-oriented forms of transit. Presenting consumers with financial relief by eliminating expenses like the huge upfront cost of purchasing a vehicle, down to the maintenance and licensing and registration, mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) translates into big savings for the customer. "
Quotes
  • "Mobility as a service—digitally-enabled carsharing and ride-hailing—will be a key driver of growth and profitability in tomorrow’s auto markets, far outstripping the profitability potential of traditional car making. Accenture research shows that by 2030, revenues from manufacturing and selling vehicles (around €2 trillion) will be only marginally higher than they are today, and that profits from car sales will even shrink slightly (from approximately €126 billion to €122 billion). By contrast, revenues from mobility services are projected to soar to almost €1.2 trillion—with profits reaching as much as €220 billion."
Quotes
  • "The more disruptive element of an EV is the connection to the grid. The possibility to connect an EV to the grid, often named vehicle-to-grid (V2G) can have implications to the electricity system in two different ways. It can facilitate more decentralized power generation making it easier for individual houses or small grids to be self-sufficient [52]. Arbib and Seba [1] consider the EV to be a superior product compared to an ICE vehicle partly because the battery can power an average American home when parked. It can also facilitate the introduction of renewables such as solar and wind."
  • "In what way can shared mobility be disruptive? Looking at it from Christensen’s framework, they can be seen as a service that has lower costs, and lower product performance than the main stream. But can they improve and outperform the personal vehicle over time? We have already seen that there has been improvement and that the customer base is increasing beyond the early niche."
Quotes
  • "Low-emission electric vehicles (EVs) are crucial to locking in the benefits of enhanced mobility, and consumers are switching from internal-combustion engines to cleaner battery power at an accelerating pace. Global sales of EVs surpassed the one million mark (1.3 million) in 2017, and we forecast that sales could rise to as many as 3 million vehicles in 2020. As production ramps up, automakers are churning out some 120 new models annually, and more than 20 percent of all potential buyers now say they would consider an EV for their next purchase. Younger and urban buyers are even more enthusiastic."
  • "One promise of the mobility revolution now underway is that as cars become connected—the nodes of vast information networks—a new dimension of value unfurls for drivers, auto manufacturers, and innovative service providers. Conventional vehicles, once heralded as “freedom machines,” will evolve into information-enveloped automobiles that offer drivers and passengers a range of novel experiences increasingly enhanced by artificial intelligence and intuitive interfaces that far surpass today’s capabilities."
From Part 05
Quotes
  • "The success of the smart home market will drive the AAL market for older people as both require similar technological base with potential for implementing innovative solutions in the built environment. "
  • "There are indications that independent living solutions will in future be delivered through energy companies with smart energy solutions, such as Hive from Centrica Connected Home"
Quotes
  • "Increasing aging population and demand for managed care is driving AAL market."
  • "Over the last decade, there has been a significant increase in the number of the elderly population, which has an impact on several aspects of human life, particularly healthcare. "
  • "It is difficult to take care of old people as their health deteriorates with the increasing age, resulting in a higher demand for long-term care. "
  • "As it is difficult for people of other age groups to take care of the older population, there is an increasing demand for managed care in countries such as the U.S., Germany, the U.K., France, Italy, Japan, Spain, and among others which in turn demands for AAL products"
Quotes
  • "Global Assisted Living Facilities Market is growing due to growing requirements for quality inspection and surge in demand."
  • "Assisted living facilities efficiently provide 24/7 quality care service for all emergency response system, supervision of the person, resident protection, three daily meals in a communal dining room, provision, coordination of social service, housekeeping and maintenance, religious activities, and transportation. "
Quotes
  • "Investigators examined the respective sectors at the county level between 2007 and 2014. During that time, the mean number of assisted living beds rose by more than 13%. "
Quotes
  • "In 2007, 11,276 assisted living facilities were in existence, according to Health Affairs. "
  • "The assisted living industry has picked back up, and today, more than 28,000 assisted living facilities house more than a million people, according to McKnight’s. The industry should remain stable through 2014, says SBDCNet."
Quotes
  • "In addition to the significant financial and regulatory changes expected to affect senior living in 2018, Health Dimensions Group anticipates major shifts in the industry as operators meet the demands of a growing senior population. "
  • "To that end, HDG expects 2018 will bring changes in senior housing including increased demand, the rise of medically complex patients, occupancy challenges amid fierce competition, and continued industry-wide shifts to value-based payment."
  • "Adapting to the rapidly growing senior population is the first challenge to look for in 2018."
From Part 06
Quotes
  • "The Market to Cross 88 Million and at least 2 OEMs to Hit 10 Million in Sales"
Quotes
  • "The Greater China region, which consists of China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, registers the highest rate of predicted growth at 5.2%, followed closely by South Asia at 4.5% and South America at 4.3%. "
  • "Alongside the growth trends in the conventional automotive industry, the AlixPartners analysis noted a major trend in the relatively new Electric Vehicle (EV) industry, highlighting that the EV share of the overall market has exponentially grown by 168 % over the past two years."
Quotes
  • "Fleet size was globally over 157,000 vehicles and about 15 million members are registered. "
  • "Asia is by far the largest carsharing region with over 40% of all carsharing vehicles operating there. Europe is the second largest carsharing market with 37% of the global fleet deployed in that region."
  • "Overall membership for free-floating has increased by 76% (!) which we at movmi attribute to the low barrier of entry. "
  • "Peer-to-peer fleets and membership has also experienced tremendous growth in the past years."
From Part 07
Quotes
  • "Growth Model Shows $9.5 to $11 Billion Could be Returned to Shareholders."
  • "Marriott will disclose that its new room openings during this period could contribute $400 million in fee revenue in 2021 and $700 million annually when stabilized."
Quotes
  • "In 2018, the company signed 36 deals in the Caribbean and Latin America, including more than 2,300 rooms or close to 40% of total rooms in Mexico."
  • "To date Marriott’s hotel owners have seen even greater benefits from growing loyalty program membership, which now tops 125 million members, reduced charge out rates, higher luxury redemptions and a growing proportion of bookings from our direct channels."
Quotes
  • "China continues to be the strongest growth driver for Marriott International in Asia Pacific, with more than 300 hotels in the pipeline."
  • "With its recent 100th Marriott International hotel milestone celebrated in 2018, India continues to be the company's second fastest growth engine in Asia Pacific with more than 50 properties in the pipeline. "
  • "Element Hotels, Marriott International's eco-conscious brand, is expected to debut in Australia with the opening of Element Melbourne Richmond in Q3 2019."
Quotes
  • "About 30 percent of Marriott International’s branded residential pipeline features premium, non-luxury brands such as Marriott Hotels, Sheraton, Westin and Autograph Collection."
  • "By 2022, Marriott International expects to have open branded residential projects in nearly 40 countries and territories."
Quotes
  • "Marriott International on track to increase its portfolio by 50 percent with over 200 hotels and 38,000 rooms by 2023 estimated to generate 12,000 new job opportunities."
Quotes
  • "India stands at No 4 position worldwide in terms of the number of Marriott hotels in a single country and No 2 in the Asia-Pacific; domestic tourists contribute up to 80 per cent of the business."
  • "The group added 18 hotels in calendar 2018 and for 2019, plans to add 22 hotels including in Tier 2/3 cities."
From Part 08