Construction Industry by 2030

Part
01
of four
Part
01

Construction Industry by 2030 - Hospitality

Due to the limited availability of data, the research team could not sufficiently provide specific data on the 2030 projected global size of the construction industry for hospitality. However, the team estimated that the global leisure & hospitality construction industry would hit $362.69 billion by 2030.

RELATED FINDINGS

  • The global leisure & hospitality construction market was worth $181 billion in 2016.
  • It was projected to hit $232 billion by 2021, representing a CAGR of 5.09% over the projected period (calculations below).
  • The projected growth is boosted by the rising tourism in the Asia-Pacific region, the Middle East, and Africa.
  • However, the industry is led by spending in the U.S., China, and the UK.
  • As of September 2019, there were 14,051 hotel construction projects, amounting to 2,327,923 rooms, around the globe.
  • This is about 9% and 8% year-over-year rise in construction projects and rooms being constructed respectively.
  • Therefore, by 2030, there would be about 36,257 hotel construction projects, amounting to 5,427,876 rooms, around the globe. (calculations below).

RESEARCH STRATEGY

To determine the projected size of the construction industry for hospitality by 2030, your research team commenced with an exhaustive search on market reports and statistical databases from credible sources. However, no public report nor reports gated by paywall was available. We switched gears to search for industry-related reports on the global construction market, which could provide insight into the requested data. While we found reports on the global construction industry as a whole, segments by type on these reports were only on infrastructure, residential, and non-residential (commercial) markets. As such, our next approach was to search for standalone reports on the global commercial building market. The team hoped to find further segmentation of this market or related sectors such as hotels, restaurants, nightclubs, or anything similar. However, we could only find data on the global hotel construction market. Further, we searched through articles and expert analysis for any mention on the share of the global leisure & hospitality market with the hope of splitting this market to determine the exact size and projected size of only the hospitality construction sector. However, we found that the market segmentation of the commercial construction industry does not separate the leisure and hospitality market. We have provided relevant data points that we found in the course of this research.

TRIANGULATION AND CALCULATIONS

If the global leisure and hospitality construction market was worth $181 billion in 2016 and was projected to hit $232 billion by 2021, using an online calculator, we determined that the CAGR between 2016 to 2021 is 5.09%.

Assuming that the global trend remains unchanged up till 2030, the size of the market would become $362.69 billion at a CAGR of 5.09% from 2016.

If the number of hotels and rooms in construction were 14,051 and 2,327,923 respectively in 2019, and continue to grow at a rate of by 9% and 8% per year respectively, using an online calculator, we determined that by 2030, there would be about 36,257 hotels and or 5,427,876 rooms under construction in the world.
Part
02
of four
Part
02

Construction Industry by 2030 - Single Family Residential Units

By 2030, the global market size of the construction industry for single-family residential units is triangulated to reach $3.06 trillion (calculations below); in terms of the number of units, the market is expected to reach 49.26 million units (calculations below). The explanations on the triangulations and calculations have been provided below.

GLOBAL SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY

  • The 2030 global single-family residential construction market is valued at $3.06 trillion.
  • In 2030, 49.26 million units of single-family residential housing are expected to be constructed.
  • By 2022, the annual housing unit constructed is expected to reach 60 million units, growing annually by 2%.

GLOBAL RESIDENTIAL HOUSING OVERVIEW

  • The North American residential construction market is expected to reach $1,434.3 billion by 2022 from $809 billion in 2017.
  • The Asia-Pacific residential construction market is expected to reach $3,895.3 billion by 2022 from $2,424.0 billion in 2017.
  • Between 2017 and 2022, the global residential construction market is expected to grow at a cumulative annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.3%.
  • While China accounts for the largest residential construction market share in terms of dollar value, the United States and the United Kingdom are expected to record the fastest growth between 2017 and 2022.
  • Asia-Pacific makes up 57% of the global residential construction sector revenues, followed by Europe (21.3%), and the United States (16.7%).

RESEARCH STRATEGY

We commenced our research by searching for market reports into the global single-family residential industry from credible research firms, global consultants, and industry-related publications. While there were a plethora of reports on the overall residential construction market and global construction industry in general, details about how the residential market breaks down into single- or multi-family were not readily in the public domain. Moreso, most of the reports did not provide projections until 2030.

Since we were after quantitative data, we sought to triangulate the market size of the construction industry for single-family residential units by 2030. We thought to research the biggest companies in the single-family residential construction market, but found that the market is not consolidated, that is, it is not dominated by a few players.

However, our research provided key data points that we have put together to triangulate and estimate the market size of the construction industry for single-family residential units by 2030 in both dollar value and number of units, albeit with certain assumptions. Our calculations and triangulations have been detailed below.

MARKET SIZE — DOLLAR VALUE

GLOBAL RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION

The global construction industry is expected to reach $15.5 trillion by 2030 with China, India, and the United States making up 57% of the growth. In 2017, the market was valued at $10.8 trillion. The global residential building construction market was valued at $4.17 trillion. Therefore, the 2017 market share of the residential building construction market in the global construction industry is:


Assuming the market share remains constant between 2017 and 2030, then the market value of the global residential building construction in 2030 is:

38.6% * $15.5 trillion = $5.98 trillion

SINGLE-FAMILY RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION MARKET

In 2017, the United States residential construction industry is broken down as follows:
The total United States residential construction market in 2017 was:
$267 billion + $65 billion + $190 billion = $522 billion

Therefore, the market share of single-family residential construction in the United States residential construction market is:
($267 billion/$522 billion) * 100 = 51.15%

In the absence of the global market share of the global single-family residential construction market in the global residential construction market, we have used the United States market share on the assumption that the market is similar across the globe.

Therefore, the 2030 global single-family residential construction market is valued at:
51.15% of $5.98 trillion = $3.06 trillion

MARKET SIZE — NUMBER OF UNITS

GLOBAL HOUSING UNITS BY 2030

By 2022, the annual housing unit constructed is expected to reach 60 million units, growing annually by 2%. Assuming this annual growth continues from 2022 to 2030, the annual number of housing units constructed in 2030 is, therefore:
  • 2023 number of units: 102% of 60 million units = 61.2 million units
  • 2024 number of units: 102% of 61.2 million units = 62.42 million units
  • 2025 number of units: 102% of 62.42 million units = 63.67 million units
  • 2026 number of units: 102% of 63.67 million units = 64.94 million units
  • 2027 number of units: 102% of 64.94 million units = 66.24 million units
  • 2028 number of units: 102% of 66.24 million units = 67.56 million units
  • 2029 number of units: 102% of 67.56 million units = 68.91 million units
  • 2030 number of units: 102% of 68.91 million units = 70.29 million units
In 2030, 70.29 million housing/residential units will be constructed.

UNITED STATES SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSING UNITS

In 2018, there were 876,000 single-family and 374,000 multi-family housing units started. The total housing units started in 2018 is:

876,000 + 374,000 = 1,250,000 housing units

Therefore, the share of single-family housing units is: (876,000/1,250,000) * 100 = 70.08%

GLOBAL SINGLE-FAMILY RESIDENTIAL UNITS

Assuming the market share in the United States is a snapshot of the global market, then the total number of single-family residential units constructed in 2030 is:
70.08% of 70.29 million units = 49.26 million units

Part
03
of four
Part
03

Construction Industry by 2030 - Multi-Family Residential Units

By 2030, the global market size of the construction industry for multi-family residential units has been roughly triangulated to reach $744.51 billion (calculations below); in terms of the number of units, the market is expected to reach 21.03 million units (calculations below). The explanations on the triangulations and calculations have been provided below.

GLOBAL MULTI-FAMILY RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY

  • The 2030 global multi-family residential construction market is projected to reach $744.51 billion.
  • In 2030, 21.03 million units of multi-family residential housing are projected to be constructed.

OTHER FINDINGS

  • The value of multi-family residential buildings constructed in the United States is projected to reach $75.5 billion.
  • In the first half of 2018, EUR 11 billion ($12.19 billion) was spent on multi-family homes construction in Germany.
  • Factors affecting the United States' multi-family construction market include rising rental activity and demographic shifts.

RESEARCH STRATEGY

We commenced our research by searching for market reports into the global multi-family residential industry from credible research firms, global consultants, and industry-related publications. While there were a plethora of reports on the overall residential construction market and global construction industry in general, details about how the residential market breaks down into single- or multi-family were not readily in the public domain. More so, most of the reports did not provide projections until 2030.
Since we were after quantitative data, we sought to triangulate the market size of the construction industry for multi-family residential units by 2030. We thought to research the biggest companies in the multi-family residential construction market, but found that the market is not consolidated, that is, it is not dominated by a few players. We had thought to use the market share of the biggest player to piggyback on the market size of the market.
However, our research provided key data points that we have put together to roughly triangulate and estimate the market size of the construction industry for multi-family residential units by 2030 in both dollar value and number of units, albeit with certain assumptions. Our calculations and triangulations have been detailed below.

MARKET SIZE — DOLLAR VALUE

GLOBAL RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION

The global construction industry is expected to reach $15.5 trillion by 2030 with China, India, and the United States making up 57% of the growth. In 2017, the global construction market was valued at $10.8 trillion. The global residential building construction market was valued at $4.17 trillion. Therefore, the 2017 market share of the residential building construction market in the global construction industry is:
Assuming the market share remains constant between 2017 and 2030, then the market value of the global residential building construction in 2030 is:
38.6% * $15.5 trillion = $5.98 trillion

MULTI-FAMILY RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION MARKET

In 2017, the United States residential construction industry is broken down as follows:
The total United States residential construction market in 2017 was:
$267 billion + $65 billion + $190 billion = $522 billion

Therefore, the market share of multi-family residential construction in the United States residential construction market is:
($65 billion/$522 billion) * 100 = 12.45%

In the absence of the global market share of the global multi-family residential construction market in the global residential construction market, we have used the United States market share on the assumption that the market is similar across the globe. This is a rough estimate, however.

Therefore, the 2030 global multi-family residential construction market is valued at:
12.45% of $5.98 trillion = $744.51 billion

MARKET SIZE — NUMBER OF UNITS

GLOBAL HOUSING UNITS BY 2030
By 2022, the annual housing unit constructed is expected to reach 60 million units, growing annually by 2%. Assuming this annual growth continues from 2022 to 2030, the annual number of housing units constructed in 2030 is, therefore:
  • 2023 number of units: 102% of 60 million units = 61.2 million units
  • 2024 number of units: 102% of 61.2 million units = 62.42 million units
  • 2025 number of units: 102% of 62.42 million units = 63.67 million units
  • 2026 number of units: 102% of 63.67 million units = 64.94 million units
  • 2027 number of units: 102% of 64.94 million units = 66.24 million units
  • 2028 number of units: 102% of 66.24 million units = 67.56 million units
  • 2029 number of units: 102% of 67.56 million units = 68.91 million units
  • 2030 number of units: 102% of 68.91 million units = 70.29 million units
In 2030, 70.29 million housing/residential units will be constructed.

UNITED STATES MULTI-FAMILY HOUSING UNITS
In 2018, there were 876,000 single-family and 374,000 multi-family housing units started. The total housing units started in 2018 is:
876,000 + 374,000 = 1,250,000 housing units
Therefore, the share of multi-family housing construction is: (374,000/1,250,000) * 100 = 29.92%

GLOBAL MULTI-FAMILY RESIDENTIAL UNITS
Assuming the market share of residential construction in the United States is the same across the global market, then the total number of multi-family residential units constructed in 2030 is:

29.92% of 70.29 million units = 21.03 million units







Part
04
of four
Part
04

Construction Industry by 2030 - Senior Living

While data on the 2030 projected global size of the construction industry for senior living is not available and could not be estimated, the research team estimated that the UK retirement homes market would worth about $18.79 billion by 2030.

RELATED FINDINGS

  • IBISWorld reports that the 2019 size of the UK retirement homes market is £5 billion ($6.4 billion).
  • Also, the 2019 size of the UK residential building construction market is £72 billion ($92.1 billion).
  • By triangulation, the UK retirement homes market would worth about $18.79 billion in 2030 (see calculations below).
  • In 2018, the UK had over 725,000 units of retirement homes.
  • In 2017, the global market for residential building construction generated about $4.17 trillion. It was projected to hit about $6.8 trillion by 2022, at a CAGR of 10.3%.

RESEARCH STRATEGY

To determine the projected size of the construction industry for senior living by 2030, your research team commenced with an exhaustive search on industry reports and statistical databases from credible sources. However, no public report nor reports gated by paywall was available. We switched gears to search for industry specific related reports on the global construction market, which could provide insight into the requested data. While we found reports on the global construction industry as a whole, segments by type on these reports were only on infrastructure, residential, and non-residential markets. As such, we commenced to search for standalone reports on the global residential building market with the intention of determining the senior living portion. The team hoped to find further segmentation of this market or related sectors such as retirement homes, senior apartments, assisted living, or anything similar. However, we could only find data on the global retirement home services industry and home retirement data points specific to countries such as the UK and the U.S. Further, we searched through articles and expert analysis for any mention on the share of the global residential building market contributed by the senior living market or related sectors.

After an exhaustive search for relevant data points proved unsuccessful, the team attempted to identify related data that may be used in triangulation of a response. First, we searched for country-specific data for countries such as the U.S., Canada, and the UK, among others. While there is no exact data on senior living for any of the countries we searched, we found data of the UK retirement home market, which included the size of the market and the number of units in 2019 and 2018, respectively. We also found the size of the UK residential building unit. We used these data points to determine the share of the retirement homes market to the residential building market in the country, which we hoped to use as a proxy to estimate the global size of the retirement homes market up to 2030. However, although we could estimate global data via this strategy, it would not be a clear representation of the global retirement homes data because the percentage of retirement homes to residential buildings in the UK would not be the same with that of many under-developed countries. Hence, we have provided estimated data for only the UK.

ASSUMPTIONS

  • We assume that the trend (growth rate) in the global market applies to the UK market.
  • We also assume that this trend remains steady up to 2030.

TRIANGULATION

  • If the 2019 size of the UK retirement homes market is £5 billion, and the 2019 size of the UK residential building construction market is £72 billion, this means that the share of the UK retirement homes market in the UK residential building market is about 6.94% i.e (£5 billion/£72 billion)*100.
  • If the UK market mirrors the global trend in terms of growth rate (10.3%), and it remains steady up to 2030, this means that the UK residential building market would hit $270.76 billion by 2030 from £72 billion ($92.1 billion) in 2019 (using an online CAGR calculator).
  • Therefore, the UK retirement home market would worth about $18.79 billion in 2030. i.e ($270.76 billion*6.94%).



Sources
Sources