FWN - ratio of product sales by gender

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Footwear Industry - USA and Canada: Gender Breakdown Purchases

Exhaustive research of the public domain indicates that there is no granular information publicly available regarding the gender breakdown of footwear purchases in Canada, although market research does indicate that "women’s footwear continued to dominate value sales of footwear." In the US, women's shoe sales dominated men's by an estimated 5% margin in 2016. From the 2016 figures, we have calculated that sales in men's shoes could exceed those in women's shoes by 2019. All relevant, available data points have been entered into a table, per your request. Below you'll find our methodology and relevant findings.

METHODOLOGY

Please note that there are no market research reports, articles or analyses available which specifically examine sales as a function of 'purchasing,' regardless of gender. All available information is relative to overall sales; so although it is reasonable to assume that some segment of the sales market is purchased by a person for someone of another gender, there is no way to calculate that percentage with available information. For this reason, we have assumed relative parity between market sales figures relative to the footwear market, and 'purchasing.'

Extensive research through market research, press releases, and reputable analyses of market research generated only a single data point for gender breakout for footwear sales in the US. It should also be noted that a significant amount of calculation was involved to arrive at the requested figures, which includes calculation for marketing sizing for each relevant year. Those calculations are presented first, as the final calculations for gender breakout rely on them. The individual US and Canada figures (for 2018, which are used to estimate through 2021) do not include "work and safety shoes." However, our research on work and safety shoes market size generate a paid report on the global market, but it did not generate any relevant data which could be used to estimate the missing share. Therefore, we should consider the overall figures of footwear for the US and Canada, between 2018-2021, to be low relative to inclusion of work and safety footwear.

In our calculations, all decimal points from the original data have been rounded to whole numbers. All calculated figures are presented to the first decimal point.

Lastly, please note that there is some discrepancy between the North American historical market data from one market research source, and the current/future data presented individually for the US from a second source. This variance is typical between market research reports, likely due to variety in the measurements and inclusions of each report. It is reasonable to assume that the more recent data is more accurate, especially as we found two sources for 2018 that closely tally for the US market size (here and here). However, the variance is within a normal range, and we therefore have not tried to calculate for parity between the historical and current/projected market sizes, for two reasons:
- the national segmentation of the historical data is based on an assumed figure, not a direct figure, so there is no complete apples-to-apples data set with which to calculate;
- the Canadian figures between these two sources agree.

NORTH AMERICAN MARKET, 2015-2017

Available market research indicates that the North American footwear market was valued at $80 billion in 2014, and was projected to grow at 1.5% CAGR through 2021.

There is no information publicly available which states the segmented market share of the North American footwear historical market. However, if we estimate the historical market share to be relatively equivalent to the 2018 shares (92% and 8% for the US and Canada, respectively), we can estimate a rough potential historical value for each country, for each historical year.
Calculation, market share of 2018 market size:
1. $84 billion + $7 billion = $91 billion US + Canadian footwear market
2. $84 billion ÷ $91 billion = .92 = 92% market share, US 2018
3. $7 billion ÷ $91 billion = .076 ≈ 8% market share, Canada 2018

Using a online reverse-CAGR calculator, the $80 billion market size for 2014 and the projected CAGR of 1.5%, we estimate the historical market North American market size to have been:
2015: $81.2 billion
The market share percentages previously calculated correlate to the following market share estimates:
US share: 92% = $74.7 billion
Canadian share: 8% = $6.5 billion

2016: $82.4 billion
US share: 92% = $75.8 billion
Canadian share: 8% = $6.6 billion

2017: $83.6 billion
US share: 92% = $76.9 billion
Canadian share: 8% = $6.7 billion

US MARKET, 2018-2021

The current US market size is estimated at $84 billion, with an estimated CAGR of 2.6% through 2021. The 2019-2021 market size estimates were calculated using an online CAGR calculator:
2019: $86.1 billion
2020: $88.3 billion
2021: $90.6 billion

CANADIAN MARKET, 2018-2021

The current Canadian market size is estimated at $6.7 billion, with an estimated CAGR of 1.1% through 2021. The 2019-2021 market size estimates were calculated using an online CAGR calculator:
2019: $6.8 billion
2020: $6.9 billion
2021:$7 billion

GENDER SALES SEGMENTATION

Our research did not discover gender segmentation data for Canada in publicly available resources, and market share by age was universally unavailable. The lack of age segmentation in even paid market reports indicate that it is not an element typically tracked in footwear market research. For Canada, the most relevant information available is from the 2018 Euromonitor report 'Footwear in Canada' notes that while "women’s footwear continued to dominate value sales of footwear, men’s footwear is expected to continue its robust growth over the forecast period, as male consumers become more fashion-conscious in Canada." This trend mirrors that of the US.

In the US in 2016, women's shoes sales surpassed men's shoes sales by almost $4 billion: $26.2 billion in men's shoes versus $29.9 billion in women's shoes. However, $4 billion is slim 5% of the market ($4 billion / $80 billion .047 ≈ 5%). In the five years preceding 2016, men's shoe sales growth was 27%, compared to women's shoe sales growth at 21%. This is due to a simultaneous growth decrease in women's shoe sales and growth increase in men's shoe sales. This was the only data point for gender segmentation generated during our research, so if we assume that this growth holds relatively steady from 2015-2021, and using the figures previously calculated for US annual market sizes, we can estimate that men's shoes sales would exceed women's shoe sales by 2019. The US 2015-2021 market size estimates by gender were calculated using an online CAGR calculator:

2015
men's market size: $20.6 billion
women's market size: $24.7 billion

2016
men's market size: $26.2 billion
women's market size: $29.9 billion

2017
men's market size: $33.3 billion
women's market size: $36.2 billion

2018
men's market size: $42.3 billion
women's market size: $43.8 billion

2019
men's market size: $53.7 billion
women's market size: $53 billion

2020
men's market size: $68.2 billion
women's market size: $64.1 billion

2021
men's market size: $86.6 billion
women's market size: $77.6 billion

Please note that we did find a pay-to-view market research report for the period 2014-2020 which breaks out sales by gender and by type of shoe. This was the only resource generated during our research which specifically addressed type of shoe as a element of segmentation.

CONCLUSION

To wrap it up: the US dominates the footwear market by more than 90% over Canada. Women's shoe sales in Canada and the US lead men's shoe sales, but men's shoe sales are seeing high growth in both countries; and men's shoe sales may overtake women's shoe sales in the US by 2019.
Sources
Sources