Future Demographics of the U.S.

Part
01
of one
Part
01

Future Demographics of the U.S.

In 2030, baby boomers will be the largest demographic in the United States, a historic event. Post-secondary education will be obtained by 29.76% of the population. The urban population will comprise 84.86% of the United States population.

Age demographics in 2030

  • In 2030, all baby boomers will be older than 65. One in every five US residents will be at retirement age. This will be the fastest growing age segment and as a result the United States will begin to become an "elderly-dependent" population, rather than the youth-dependent population that we currently have. For the first time in US history, older people will outnumber children.
  • In 2030 the total population will be approximately 354.8 million. There will be approximately 125 million people in the 18-44 year old segment, 81.3 million in the 46-64 year old segment, 73.1 million over the age of 65, and 6.7 million people over the age of 85. The population under the age of 18 will be approximately 68.7 million.

Gender demographics in 2030

  • In 2030, the projected female population will be 181,873,781 and the male population will be 177,528,413. In other words, 50.6% of the total population will be female and 49.4% will be male.

Educational demographics in 2030

Income distribution demographics in 2030

  • The US Bureau of Labor and Statistics provided a predicted growth rate of 4.3% for United States incomes through 2026. They did not provide a prediction beyond 2026. By taking the current weekly income averages provided and applying the 4.3% growth rate we can predict the actual yearly incomes.
  • In 2026, United States residents aged 16-24 will average $39,938.30 yearly. The 25-54 age group bracket will average $65,772.51 and the 55 and over age group will average $69,772.51.
  • If these predictions by the US Bureau of Labor hold true, we can assume that in 2030, United States residents aged 16-24 will average $47,263.60 yearly. The 25-54 age group bracket will average $77,836.20 and the 55 and over age group will average $81,885.01.

Urban/Suburban/rural demographics in 2030

  • In 2030, The urban population is estimated to be 301 million, or 84.86% of the population. The rural population is estimated to be 53.71 million, or 15.14% of the population.
  • A recent Pew study breaks down the urban population into 55% being suburban and 31% urban. Using these numbers we can estimate that the suburban population will be 55% of 354.71 million, or 195.1 million.

Other relevant demographics

  • Immigration will play an important part in the growth of our country. By 2030, immigration will become a primary provider, if not the biggest provider, of growth for our population.

Your Research Team Applied the Following Research Strategies:

We consulted the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor and Statistics, Our World In Data and Info Docket to obtain demographics for 2030. We used 2030 as a data point considering we are almost half-way through 2019. This research provided us with the needed data to project demographics for 2030. With regard to income for 2030, we were able to provide concrete statistics for 2026 by applying the 4.3 percent growth rate to the current weekly rates provided by the US Bureau of Labor and Statistics. From these statistics, we operated under the assumption that this level of growth would continue. Therefore, the 2030 income predictions are based on that assumption. The figures as to how we arrived at the numbers are provided for you.

Sources
Sources

Quotes
  • "The year 2030 marks a demographic turning point for the United States. Beginning that year, all baby boomers will be older than 65. This will expand the size of the older population so that one in every five Americans is projected to be retirement age."
  • "Immigration is projected to overtake natural increase (the excess of births over deaths) as the primary driver of population growth for the country. "
  • "The population is expected to grow by an average of 1.8 million people per year between 2017 and 2060. Since 2010, the population has grown by about 2.3 million people per year and it is projected to continue growing by the same annual rate until 2030. However, that rate is expected to fall to 1.8 million per year between 2030 and 2040, and continue falling to 1.5 million per year between 2040 and 2060."
  • "The population of people who are Two or More Races is projected to be the fastest growing racial or ethnic group over the next several decades, followed by Asians and Hispanics. "
  • "By 2030, one in five Americans will be 65 years and older. America is graying. The country will reach that demographic milestone in 2030 when all boomers will be over the age of 65. "
  • "Between 2016 and 2060, the population under age 18 is projected to grow by only 6 million people, compared with a growth of 46 million for the population 65 years and over. The pattern should continue in coming decades so that by 2060 there will be 95 million older adults but 80 million children. In coming decades, the United States is expected to shift from a youth-dependent population toward an elderly-dependent population."
  • "By 2028, the foreign-born share of the U.S. population is projected to be higher than any time since 1850. by 2030, net international migration is expected to become the primary driver of population growth in the United States—another demographic milestone for the country."
Quotes
  • "2030 Population Statistics: Total Population: 354.8 million Under 18: 75.4 million 18-44 years: 125.0 million 46-64 years: 81.3 million 65 years and over: 73.1 million 85 years and over: 6.7 million 100 years and over: .1 million"
  • "Population By Race: White: 74.2 % Black or African America: 13.8% American Indian and Alaska Native: 1.3% Asian: 6.9% Two or More Races: 3.6% Hispanic: 21.1%"
Quotes
  • ""The aging of baby boomers means that within just a couple decades, older people are projected to outnumber children for the first time in U.S. history,” said Jonathan Vespa, a demographer with the U.S. Census Bureau. “By 2035, there will be 78.0 million people 65 years and older compared to 76.4 million under the age of 18."
Quotes
  • "By 2030, or 8.92 million, or 29.76% of the US population over the age of 15 will have obtained some sort of post-high school degree. 193.69 million will have completed secondary education. 16.37 million US residents will have only completed primary education and 408,700 will have completed no education at all. "
Quotes
  • "Personal income will have an annual rate of change of 4.3% from 2016-2026"
Quotes
  • "Please refer to the attached google doc. "
Quotes
  • "The projected population in 2030 will be: Female: 181,873,781 Male: 177,528,413"