What is the fixed-broadband access penetration in Nigeria? what are the projected trends?
Hello! Thanks for your question about the fixed-broadband access penetration in Nigeria. The short version is I was able to locate data for all of your questions, with projections based on freely available data. Below you will find a deep dive of my research / findings along with all the details for how I came to this answer
To find these data, I searched academic databases, industry reports, and trusted media sites. Each of the sources provides the basis for these figures.
OVERVIEW NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS
Fixed broadband Internet subscribers in Nigeria was reported at 15,688 in 2015, according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources.
A release of the Cisco Visual Networking Index Complete Forecast for 2015 to 2020 has shown that Nigeria’s Internet Protocol traffic will grow six-fold. Using the YOY internet growth rate forecast for South Africa, I was able to project the number of fixed broadband subscribers in Nigeria as follows:
It should be noted that projected values from 2015-2020 were derived from projected internet growth rates in all of South Africa since no free data specific to Nigeria is available. Specific data is behind a paywall.
AVERAGE INTERNET SPEED
Average internet speed was calculated to be 2.08 Mbps. Furthermore, we can break down the internet speed to download speed (2.5 Mpbs) and upload speed of 1.34 Mbps) using data from testmy.net.
The Cisco Visual Networking Index Complete Forecast for 2015 to 2020 estimates that fixed broadband speed will increase 2.4 fold with an average mobile speed connection of 5Mbps. 5 Mbps divided by 2.4 translates to 2.08 Mbps which we can assume to be the current average internet speed in Nigeria.
Average internet speed was calculated to be 2.08 Mbps with average subscription cost of 33 USD per month.
Urban areas with the most subscription would be Lagos State, followed by Ibadan, Abuja, Kano and Port Harcourt. Searching for "lagos", "port" yields the following snippets from a report by Paul Budde Communication Pty Ltd. It stated, "About one quarter of Nigeria's internet users live in Lagos State, with much the rest concentrating in other major cities where awareness and usage is high."
From the same source, we can deduce that "the rest" of the other major cities are Ibadan, Abuja, Kano and Port Harcourt since the article mentions a lot of broadband offerings being developed in these cities. The entire report is behind a paywall.
ISSUES FACING NIGERIA
As you indicated, the government of Nigeria has set a goal for broadband penetration in the country. An article in Marketing Edge stated, “From Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) to the Ministry of Communications, the private sectors and other stakeholders, there is high hope and proclamation that achievement of 30% broadband penetration by 2018 is sacrosanct.”
It identified several issues that are threatening that goal. They include: -High cost of procuring rights of way
-Lack of investment in fixed household broadband
-Long delays in procuring approval for such rights of the way -Multiple forms of taxation and regulation
-Vandalism and disruption caused by road works
Another article in the Nairaland Forum identified additional challenges facing Nigeria. They include:
-High level of ICT literacy
-Increasing competition from mobile providers
-Lack of internet-ready PCs
It’s telling that Minister of Communications, Adebayo Shittu, stated, “I am very confident that by the Grace of God within the next two years, we will reach the target of 30 per cent.” SUMMARY
Information from the Cisco Visual Networking Index Complete Forecast for 2015 to 2020, the World Bank, and several industry reports contained the data to provide you with some solid numbers. It was a pleasure to help you with your search. Good luck with your project! Thanks for using Wonder! Please let us know if we can help with anything else!