Part
01
of one
Part
01
Number of Diesel Generators in the U.S. and Globally
Key Takeaways
- The annual installations of diesel generator sets are expected to exceed 3 million units by 2027, globally.
- The U.S. diesel generators market was about $2.33 billion in 2020, accounting for about 9.3% of the $25 billion global diesel generator sets market in the same year.
- The diesel generator sets market segment in the global generator market has fallen from about 87% of the market share in 2014, 80% in 2017, to 70% in 2019. However, is expected to keep dominating the market in the future.
Introduction
In this research, we have provided indicative estimates for the installations in the diesel generator sets market globally and in the U.S. as 2.11 million units and 0.2 million unit installations, respectively. We have also provided indicative estimates of the diesel generators in use globally and in the U.S. as 118 million units and 7.68 million units, respectively.
Global Diesel Generator Market by Number of Units
1. Estimation of the Global Diesel Generator Installations in 2020
- The global diesel gensets market was “$25 billion in 2020 and the annual installation is anticipated to exceed 3,000 thousand units by 2027.”
- The market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.1% between 2021 and 2027
- Assuming that this CAGR applies to market growth by revenue and by number of unit installations, then the number of installations in 2020 can be estimated at 2.11 million units (3 million/1.051^7).
2. Estimation of the Number of Diesel Generators in Use Globally
- In the report on back-up generators for developing countries, the International Finance Corporation (IFC) provides information on the number of back-up generators in "167 developing countries." These countries are not fully representative of the globe as the World Bank works in 189 countries, a number of which are not "developing countries," and there are as many as 195 countries in the world.
- However, the Middle East and Africa region is well represented in the report, with 59 countries, out of a possible 67, from the region being modeled. The report provides that the total number of generators in Sub-Saharan Africa is 6.5 million units and the number of generators in the Middle East and North Africa are 5.3 million units, totaling 11.8 million (6.5 million + 5.3 million) generators.
- From industry reports, the Middle East and Africa region is quoted as accounting for about 10% of the global power generators' market.
- Therefore, assuming that the 11.8 million generators are representative of the total number of generator units in the Middle East and Africa region and that the 10% market share of the region is the same for both revenue and number of units in use, then the global number of generators in use can be approximated at 118 million (11.8 million/10 x100).
- The IFC report, as well as various industry reports, have noted that the diesel generators segment is the largest in the overall global generators market, with estimates of about 70% of the market revenue.
- Assuming that this proportion also applies to the number of generator units, then the number of diesel generators in use globally can be estimated at 82.6 million units (70% of 118 million).
U.S. Diesel Generator Market by Number of Units
1. Estimation of the U.S. Diesel Generator Installations
- The U.S. diesel genset market is expected to rise from $2.18 billion in 2019 to $3.79 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 7.2% between 2020 and 2030. This means that the market in 2020 can be estimated at $2.33 billion (1.072 x $2.18 billion).
- The global diesel genset market was $25 billion in 2020. Therefore, the U.S. diesel genset market in 2020 can be estimated at 9.3% ($2.33 billion/$25 billion x 100) of the overall global market.
- As calculated above, the number of unit installations in the global diesel gensets market in 2020 can be estimated at 2.11 million units (3 million/1.051^7). Assuming that the proportion of the U.S. market in the global diesel gensets market by revenue is similar to the proportion by units, then the number of installations in the U.S. diesel gensets market in 2020 can be estimated at about 0.2 million unit installations (9.3% of 2.11 million units).
2. Estimation of the Number of Diesel Generators in Use in the U.S.
- Based on the understanding that the U.S. diesel gensets market makes up 9.3% ($2.33 billion/$25 billion x 100) of the global diesel generators market, and with the indicative estimate of 82.6 million diesel generators in use globally, then the number of diesel generators in use in the U.S. can be approximated at 7.68 million (9.3% of 82.6 million) units.
Research Methodology
In order to provide statistics on the size of the diesel generators market, we triangulated the number of global installations, currently (year 2020), based on the predicted number of installations in 2027. Similarly, we determined an estimate of the U.S. installations by applying the calculated proportion of the U.S. market by revenue and making the assumption that this percentage equally applies to the number of installations.
To provide an estimate of the number of diesel generators in use globally and in the U.S., we used information contained in the IFC report. We corrected an error made in the preliminary hour of research, by establishing that the "global fleet" as mentioned in the IFC report refers to "167 developing countries" and not all the countries worldwide, which, therefore, is not representative of the total market. We used the number of total generator units provided for one of the regions, the Middle East and Africa, which in the IFC report is presented as Sub-Saharan and the Middle East and North Africa as a starting point to triangulate the total number of generators globally. We chose this region as our starting point as it was the one that was most representative, with 59 countries out of the total 67 being part of the report; and with the specific number of generators for the region clearly provided. We then calculated the proportion of diesel gensets based on the assumption that the percentage provided for the diesel generator segment for the overall revenues in the market is also applicable to the numbers in use/deployed. Lastly, to provide an estimation of the diesel gensets in use in the U.S., we applied the calculated estimate for the proportion of annual installations in the U.S., based on the assumption that this percentage would equally apply to the number of diesel generators in use.