Eurotunnel Traffic Predictions
Eurotunnel passenger (i.e. car and train) traffic volume is estimated to grow at a 2.93% CAGR through 2027. Its freight (i.e. trucks) traffic volume is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.59% during the same period. Your requested information is also prepared for you in the attached spreadsheet.
Below you will find a deep dive of my findings and methodology.
To complete your request, I searched corporate resources, commissioned reports, industry analysis, and media coverage of Eurotunnel's traffic estimates up to 2030. I did not find a resource that directly gave specific traffic projections from 2018 to 2030. Eurotunnel's website as well as its traffic estimate resources were inaccessible at the time of my research. Therefore, I relied on external resources and projections to complete my research. I found a locked report by PricewaterhouseCoopers but it only offered traffic estimates up to 2020 and provided no helpful findings in its preview. Also, while trusted media articles answered part of the question, they were inadequate to fully answer your request.
I used the only resource I found that gave compounded annual growth rates for Eurotunnel's passenger (i.e. car and train) and freight (truck) traffic estimates up to 2051. Please continue below to see the results of my research.
EUROTUNNEL TRAFFIC PROJECTIONS
The book "The Econometrics of Major Transport Infrastructures" (most recent version available) was the only resource I found that gave projected growth rates for Eurotunnel's traffic volume up to 2030 and beyond. In page 133, the book cites Eurotunnel forecasts as the basis of its projected annual growth projections.
The book gives the following annual Eurotunnel traffic forecasts:
I studied the historical growth/decline in Eurotunnel rates from 2013 to 2017 in tab 1 of the attached spreadsheet. Historical data shows that traffic flow fluctuated for all 3 categories. In other words, historical data did not reflect the projected linear decline for the years after 2013. Also, information gleaned from the media articles below show projections for increased, not decreased, traffic flow in the Eurotunnel. For this reason I used the most recent rates available, i.e. 2013 to calculate Eurotunnel traffic flow up to 2030. Passenger traffic flows for both car and train passengers are calculated using the 2.93% CAGR up to 2027 while truck drivers are calculated using the 3.59% CAGR up to 2027. Yearly Eurotunnel traffic flow volumes for all three categories are prepared for you in tab 2 entitled Predictions in the attached spreadsheet.
I found snatches of information from trusted media sources, namely Reuters and Independent.
Reuters reported in 2017 that Eurotunnel's goal of transporting 2 million trucks by 2020 could be delayed by a year. The announcement had been preceded by reports of decreased truck shuttle traffic in 2017.
Corporate Watch reported in 2016 that Eurotunnel faces several challenges in the future. Here are several that could affect future traffic estimates:
CW cited Brexit as early as 2016 as a factor that could affect trade flow between France and Britain. Now that Brexit has become a reality, cross-channel trade and traffic in the future could also be affected.
While the company plans to bring in several new freight shuttles to increase traffic flow, CW cautioned that tunnel space can only handle a limited number of freight and trains. New technology might help increase traffic flow but can also increase risk of accidents and delays.
In its 2015 Registration Document, CW quotes Eurotunnel as stating that the tunnel "could be subject to disruption from various sources. This could result in the stoppage or reduction of this traffic as was the case in 2015 on the SNCF Railways Calais Frethun site."
CW notes that escalating controls and checks on the border directly impacts trade and traffic flow between France and Britain. Border rule enforcement has historically resulted from terrorist concerns but may now be compounded by Brexit.
Here is additional material for further review:
To wrap it up, based on available resources, Eurotunnel passenger (i.e. car and train) traffic volume is estimated to grow at a 2.93% CAGR from 2018 to 2027 while freight (i.e. trucks) traffic volume is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.59% during the same period. However, challenges such as Brexit, border control, security issues and the natural limit of tunnel traffic can affect Eurotunnel traffic flow in the future.
Your requested information is prepared for you in the attached spreadsheet.