Electricity usage of us commercial ev trucks

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Electricity usage of us commercial ev trucks

It is estimated that by 2030 electric MHCVs will have a 13% share of total MHCV sales. The total ownership cost for most types of eTrucks will achieve parity with diesel trucks by 2030.

NUMBER OF COMMERCIAL ELECTRIC TRUCKS

  • The current and projected number of commercial EV trucks in operation was not publicly available. However, we have provided alternate data points such as current (2018/2019) and projected (2025, 2030) market shares, adoption rates, electricity consumption, and volume sales from across multiple sources such as the IEA, ICF International, EIA, ACT Research, and media portals.

Number of Electric Trucks in North America

  • In 2019, there were an estimated 100,000 electric delivery trucks in North America.

Adoption Rates (ACT Research)

  • The adoption rates for class 4-8 electric trucks (ACT Research):
    • Class 4-5: 2% (2019); 8% (2025); and 16% (2030)
    • Class 6-7: 3% (2019); 13% (2025); and 21% (2030)
    • Class 8: 1% (2019); 3% (2025); and 7% (2030)

Projected Market Shares

  • The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates the market share of BEV MHCVs in the US to grow to 1.21% in 2030 in the "New Policies Scenario" and 1.39% (Figure 3.2) in the EV30@30 scenario.
  • The IEA estimates the market share of PHEV MHCVs in the US to grow to 2.14% in 2030 in the "New Policies Scenario" and 15.07% (Figure 3.2) in the EV30@30 scenario.
  • "The IEA New Policies Scenario incorporates both the policies and measures that governments around the world have already put in place, and the likely effects of announced policies, including the Nationally Determined Contributions made for the Paris Agreement. In comparison, the EV30@30 Scenario reflects a policy case characterized by a wider adoption of EVs, in line with the EV30@30 campaign if it were to be applied at a global scale."

Unit Sales (US and Canada)

  • Base case market volumes for class 4-8 trucks (ACT Research):
  • According to ICF International, there were 300 medium-duty trucks (class 4-6) operational in the United States in December 2018.
  • In 2019, there were 100,000 electric delivery trucks in North America.

Global Sales

  • Globally, there were 1,000-2,000 medium-electric trucks deployed in 2018, mostly in China.
  • World over, there were 250,000 light-commercial vehicles deployed in 2018 versus 80,000 in 2017.

Consumption of Electricity

TRENDS IN COMMERCIAL ELECTRIC TRUCKS

Total Cost of Ownership

  • The "total cost of ownership" (TCO) is a more important consideration during the purchase of commercial vehicles than during the purchase of passenger cars.
  • The break-even point for TCO of commercial battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will achieve parity with the break-even point for TCO of diesel vehicles between
  • The optimal travel distance to achieve the fastest break-even parity between eTrucks and diesel trucks is 200 kms. At this optimal point, the battery operates efficiently without the need for several recharges, the cost-per-kilometer is low, and the battery-related capital expenditure isn't a lot as the battery is still small. In the US, parity will be achieved later than the EU as fuel prices are cheaper than in the US (the differential in operating cost is higher in the US).
  • Specific use cases will propel the adoption of eTrucks:
    • The first to achieve parity will be regional LCVs operating in a hub-and-spoke delivery model; for example, grocery delivery for regional shops and restaurants.
    • "Urban LDT stop-and-go delivery" will be the second segment to achieve parity as a result of lower battery costs.
    • As a greater balance between capital expenditure and operating cost is achieved, regional medium-duty CVs operating in a hub-and-spoke delivery model--for example, a "grocery chain with logistics center for several branches"--will also achieve parity.
    • Heavy-duty trucks doing long-haul delivery will achieve parity last as they require large batteries.

Cost-Focus and Autonomous Vehicles Will Accelerate Adoption

  • As fleet operators are TCO-conscious and travel fixed routes, they work toward better logistics and charging-point planning and battery size optimization, which will drive eTruck adoption.
  • Autonomous vehicles will take away driver-related costs, the largest component of operating costs in urban delivery, thereby driving adoption.
  • Autonomous vehicles are expected to achieve "level 4 operation on highways beginning between 2018 and 2024". At level 4 operation the trucks will automatically carry out all safety-critical functions and will be able to perform on all roadway conditions for the length of an entire long-haul delivery trip (with a driver present).
  • At level 5, the last level of prototype testing, the autonomous truck will be able to operate without a driver present.
  • As of February 2020, 29 states have passed legislation on autonomous vehicles.

Sustainability Goals, Corporate Image, and Regulation

  • Seventy-eight percent of "S&P 500 issued a sustainability report" in 2018.
  • Refinitiv, a provider of financial market data, conducted a study to understand the environmental impact that corporates are having. It found that 63% of companies in its ESG database (accounting 70% of the global market cap) "have a policy to reduce emissions", an increase of 56% over the five years leading to 2019.
  • The number of companies that are now focusing on the environmental impact their supply chains are having has increased by 44%.
  • While only 35% of companies have defined emission targets, there is an increasing shift towards socially responsible investments.
  • A UPS survey found that the adoption of electric fleets is primarily driven by sustainability goals (83%), lowering the cost of ownership (64%), and corporate reputation (30%).
  • In September 2019, Amazon announced that it was buying 100,000 electric CVs to fulfill its promise of "net-zero greenhouses gasses" by 2050. On the occasion, Jeff Bezos, the CEO of Amazon, released a statement saying “if a company with as much physical infrastructure as Amazon—which delivers more than 10 billion items a year—can meet the Paris Agreement 10 years early, then any company can”.
  • In 2017, Anheuser-Busch placed an order for 40 Tesla tractors trucks, and in 2019, it purchased 21 BYD semis. The BYD trucks were purchased as part of a joint project "between A-B, BYD, the Center for Transportation and the Environment (CTE), and ENGIE Services US" called "Zero-Emission Beverage Handling and Distribution at Scale project", which aims to demonstrate how zero-emissions can be achieved with only minor tweaks to AB's fleet logistics. The project is an initiative taken by Anheuser-Busch to cut GHG emissions by a quarter by 2025.
  • California, which is at the forefront of EV adoption in the United States, has a target to reduce GHG emissions in the state from 424 MMT in 2017 to 260 MMT by 2030. To meet this target, among other things, it will need to electrify 25% light-duty vehicles, 23% medium-duty vehicles, 6% heavy-duty vehicles, and 50% buses.
  • Currently, 23 states in the US have carbon emission targets.
Sources
Sources

Quotes
  • "In freight transport, electric vehicles (EVs) were mostly deployed as light-commercial vehicles (LCVs), which reached 250 000 units in 2018, up 80 000 from 2017."
Quotes
  • "Commitments from large companies and technological progress has accelerated growth in the electric trucks sector. Despite this acceleration, some reports do not expect longer range medium- and heavy-duty electric trucks to account for more than four percent of the U.S. market through 2025 [25]. Electrification of last mile delivery trucks is expected to advance more rapidly. Companies like UPS and Ikea have committed to electrifying a portion of their fleets [26]. Local delivery trucks and regional haul freight trucks are two primary targets for electrification."
  • " While there is growing interest in electrifying long-range freight trucks, many early models have not reached commercial markets yet and the ICF estimates that the average electric truck costs twice as much as a conventional fuel alternative. However, electric trucks are expected to reach price parity in terms of TCO by 2025 [11]. The ICF report finds that a majority of current trucks on the market best serve urban and suburban regions on routes less than 100 miles a day. Despite this range limit, these trucks could potentially cover up to 40 percent of the movement of goods around the country [11]. "
  • "At the end of 2018, ICF estimated that there were roughly 300 medium-duty electric trucks operating in the United States. This category includes trucks in Classes 4 through 6. A majority of these were attributed to the UPS fleet and service local deliveries."
Quotes
  • "The number of EVs on U.S. roads is projected to reach 18.7 million in 2030, up from 1 million at the end of 2018. This is about 7 percent of the 259 million vehicles (cars and light trucks) expected to be on U.S. roads in 2030."
  • "Annual sales of EVs will exceed 3.5 million vehicles in 2030, reaching more than 20 percent of annual vehicle sales in 2030. Compared to the prior forecast released in 2017, EV sales are estimated to be 1.4 million in 2025 versus 1.2 million."