E-cigarette/Vaping Product Numbers and Growth

Part
01
of two
Part
01

E-cigarette/Vaping Product Numbers and Growth: 2009 vs today

In the United States, the revenue of the e-cigarette products market was found to have been $0.09 billion in 2009 and currently is estimated to value $4.02 billion in 2019. The market size of e-cigarette products has grown by 4,366.6% over the past decade (2009-2019). The different types of e-cigarette products available in the country include flavored e-cigarettes, menthol e-cigarettes, personalized vaporizer, rechargeable, and disposable model e-cigarette.

E-CIGARETTE MARKET SIZE-UNITED STATES (2009-2019)

2019 Market Size

  • According to a report published by Mordor Intelligence, the market size of the United States' e-cigarette market was valued at $1.5 billion in 2014 and was valued at $3.6 billion in 2018. The market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11.6% for the period 2018-2024.
  • The market size of this sector for the year 2019 can be calculated by using an online Future Value calculator. The following are the values to be entered into the calculator —
  • Therefore, by entering the above values into the online calculate, the estimated market size of the e-cigarette products market is $4.02 billion for the year 2019.

2009 Market Size

  • In 2013, a leading industry analyst predicted that e-cigarette products sales in the United States will double that year, reaching $1.7 billion. Therefore, the market size of the e-cigarette sector in 2012 can be calculated by the following formula,
    • Market size (in revenue) in 2012 = [Market size in 2013/2]
    • Market size (in revenue) in 2012 = [$1.7 billion/2] = $0.85 billion
  • Therefore, the estimated market revenue for e-cigarette products in 2012 is $0.85 billion.
  • According to an article by Dental Care, the e-cigarette market growth during the period 2009-2012 was 115% in the United States.
  • Hence, based on the above information and by using the present value calculator, the market size for the e-cigarette market in 2009 is estimated as follows,
    • Time period = 3 years (2009-2012)
    • Rate (CAGR) = 115%
    • Present Value = $0.85 billion
  • Therefore, the estimated market size of the e-cigarette products market for the year 2009 is $0.09Billion.
  • By comparing the market size, in terms of revenue, for 2009 ($0.09 billion) and 2019 ($4.02 billion) for the e-cigarette market in the United States, it is observed that the sector has grown by 4,366.6% over the past decade.
    • Percentage growth = [(Market size in 2019 — Market size in 2009)/Market size in 2009]
    • Percentage growth = [($4.02 billion — $0.09 billion)/$0.09 billion] = 4,366.6%.

THE NUMBER OF E-CIGARETTE PRODUCTS AVAILABLE (2009-2019)


QUALITY AND TECHNOLOGY (2009-2019)

Quality and Technology — 2009

  • QUALITY: In 2009, the United States' Food and Drug Administration (FDA) tested certain e-cigarette products and found the quality to be challenging with results showing traces of tobacco-specific nitrosamines (TSNAs) in the products' liquid in comparison to products that are already FDA-approved.
  • Most of the e-cigarette products that were available in 2009 contained 1% of non-toxic diethylene glycol. NJOY and Smoking Everywhere e-cigarette brands were tested by the FDA and found no traces of TSNAs nor diethylene glycol in the vapor.
  • TECHNOLOGY: The e-cigarette products available in 2009 were considered as second generation evolved products which used a clearomizer as opposed to an atomizer, a device used in the first generation e-cigarette products that were developed before 2009. The clearomizer device was developed in 2009 and was the first technology that constituted the atomizer coil, reservoir, and the wiking material "all within one single unit".

Quality and Technology — 2019

  • QUALITY: Over the past few years, the FDA regulators imposed quality composition checks on the contents of e-cigarettes including the percentage usage of nicotine levels (from 0.01%-0.06%) with components such as methyl, ethyl, and others, along with marketing the products under the FCA quality regulation.
  • TECHNOLOGY: The most recent e-cigarette product sector comes under the technology of the fourth generation of e-cigarettes which is considered to be the most advanced and powerful products in the market. These products use stainless steel cylindrical external covers and the device utilizes temperature-regulating technology systems along with lower resistance coils to generate high-level flavored vapors. The variants are available in automatic and manual battery modes.


RESEARCH STRATEGY

In order to determine the number of e-cigarette products, market size, quality, and technology for the e-cigarette product sector for the years 2009 and 2019, we began our search by looking into historical market reports from industry-specific websites such as Mordor Intelligence, Markets and Markets, and Market Intelligence; government databases such as National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI); media reports from websites such as Forbes and PRNewswire; and registration databases such as Crossref. Additionally, dated news articles during the period 2009-2015 were also referred. A thorough search through these channels provided data on the number of brands and flavors of e-cigarettes for the period 2012-2014. We were also able to find revenue information on the market for the years 2018, 2014, and 2012. However, we found no information concerning the number of e-cigarettes available in 2009 and 2019.

We then expanded our search to include historical archives of websites to identify information on companies that sell these products over the past 10 years. An extensive search through these websites revealed only four brands relevant to the United States market which had web captures from or before 2009. When these companies' websites were researched, it was found that most of these websites for 2009 show a single page with an online ad by SafeSmoke. We then extended our search future to include annual reports (2009/2019) from key market players. We searched through the annual reports, financial documents, and press releases of key players such as BAT, Philip Morris International, JTI, and Imperial brands. However, most of these companies listed the details of their revenue and financial comparatives with no data concerning the number of e-cigarette brands/products available in 2009.

After an exhaustive search through all these channels, we were able to estimate the market size of e-cigarette products for the years 2009 and 2019. Additionally, the data obtained from the E-Cigarette Association and Tobacco Control shared relevant insights on the quality regulations and technology developments for the years 2009 and 2019.


Part
02
of two
Part
02

E-cigarette/Vaping Product Numbers and Growth: Over the Years

As per findings, the growth rate of the e-cigarette market for the period 2016–2019 is 10.36%. The CAGR for the period 2015–2016 was 49%, while for the period 2011–2015, it was 41.42%. The current market size, 2019, for the e-cigarette is 16.02 billion. Below are our explicit findings and calculations.

2011

2012

2014

2015

  • In 2015, the global e-cigarettes market was worth USD 8 billion. The U.S. accounts had the largest market share of 43%.
  • As of 2015, there were 3000 unique e-cigarette flavors in the United States with 300 being added every month.
  • The CAGR for the period 2011-2015 was 41.42%. (calculated)

2016

  • In 2016, the Food and Drug Administration banned the e-cigarette sales to minors under the age of 18 and required persons under the age of 26 to provide a Photo ID.
  • The global e-cigarette market was valued at USD 11.92 billion in 2016.
  • The CAGR from 2015 was 49%. (calculated)

2019

  • This year, 2019, the global e-cigarette market size is 16.02 billion. (calculated)
  • The CAGR for the period 2016-2019 is 10.36%. (calculated)


RESEARCH STRATEGY:

CALCULATIONS:

To perform CAGR calculations, we used the cagr-calculator. To calculate the 2019 e-cigarette market size, we used the 2024 projected market size and the 2019-2024 CAGR. This is:

Start value (2019) = 16.02 billion
Therefore, the 2019 e-cigarette market size is 16.02 billion.

To calculate the growth rate for the period 2016-2019, we used the 2016 market size and 2019 market size. This is:

  • 2016 market size: 11.92 billion
  • 2019 market size: 16.02 billion
  • Number of years: 3
CAGR: 10.36%

To calculate the growth rate for the period 2015-2016, we used the 2015 market size and the 2016 market size. This is:

  • 2015 market size: 8 billion
  • 2016 market size: 11.92 billion
  • Number of years: 1
CAGR: 49%

To calculate the growth rate for the period 2011-2015, we used the 2011 market size and the 2015 market size. This is:

  • 2011 market size: 2 billion
  • 2015 market size: 8 billion
  • Number of years: 4
CAGR: 41.42%
Sources
Sources

From Part 02
Quotes
  • "E-cigarettes were once the stuff of late-night infomercials and dubious d-list celebrity testimonials—now, for better or for worse, they comprise a $2 billion global market"
  • "Its recent study determined that sales of e-cigs, their refills, and related gear passed the $2 billion mark in 2011"
  • "The biggest market was the United States, which accounted for a full quarter of e-cigarette sales—according to USA Today, 5 million e-cigs were sold last year"
Quotes
  • "Little wonder then that Tobacco and Pharma players have begun to sit up and take notice. In the world’s biggest e-cigarette market, the US, two leading tobacco players have entered the e-cigarette market by either buying an established e-cigarette brand (as in the case of Lorillard buying Blu for US$135mn in April 2012) or by launching their own e-cigarette brands on the market (eg Swisher’s eponymous e-cigarettes and e-cigars, also in 2012)."
Quotes
  • "Since their emergence onto the US market, US sales have risen from $5m (£3.1m) to an estimated $250m, according to UBS estimates"
  • "Electronic cigarettes have exploded in popularity in the US since they first appeared on the market in 2007. Blu is just one brand, with NJOY, SmokeAnywhere, Joye eGo, and many more also available."
Quotes
  • "The $27 billion mega-merger that will unite Reynolds American with smaller competitor Lorillard raised eyebrows Tuesday because the deal includes the selloff of Lorillard’s blu e-cig brand to rival Imperial Tobacco Group."
Quotes
  • "2. The introduction of multiple flavors: The report suggests there are more than 3,000 electronic-cigarette flavor options in the United States and an average of 300 flavors being added to that list every month."
Quotes
  • "The Food and Drug Administration issued sweeping new rules that for the first time extend federal regulatory authority to e-cigarettes, banning their sale to anyone under 18 and requiring that adults under the age of 26 show a photo identification to buy them."
Quotes
  • "The fragmented global e-cigarette market is valued at $11.92 billion with a growth rate of 30.59% in 2016"
Quotes
  • "Global E-cigarette market is Set to Reach USD 53.4 billion by 2024, Observing a CAGR of 21.4% during 2019–2024: VynZ Research"