How much does a US presidential campaign cost?

Part
01
of three
Part
01

How much does a US presidential campaign cost?

Key Takeaways

  • Based on the last three elections, the average cost of a presidential campaign is $1.1 billion.
  • The key areas of spending during the 2020 U.S. presidential election include fundraising, media buys, digital ad spending, staff/administrative expenses, and national convention costs.
  • Biden's presidential campaign spent $236.8 million on advertising. For instance, his "Who We Are" ad cost him about $205,670. He also spent at least $115.1 million on online ads.
  • Donald Trump's net worth when he was elected in 2016 was approximately $4.5 billion, while Hilary Clinton's was about $45 million in the same year.

Introduction

Below are quantitative data points on the cost of running a presidential campaign, a comparison of the expenses of selected winning campaigns in the last 50 years, the net worth of the previous three presidents (before they were elected), and their major competitors.

Average Cost of a Presidential Campaign

Breakdown of Election Costs Based on the 2020 Election

Comparison of Historical Costs of Winning Campaigns

  • In 2008, the Obama presidential campaign, which won the election, spent an estimated $730 - $760 million (the figures vary slightly depending on the source).
  • During the 1996 U.S. presidential election, the incumbent Democratic President Bill Clinton won the election, having spent an estimated $115.4 million.
  • In 1980, Ronald Reagan spent $67.5 million on his winning campaign.
  • Richard Nixon's 1972 winning campaign cost $61.4 million.
  • These data points, along with the chart below, illustrate that the cost of a winning presidential campaign has grown significantly over the years. However, the same is true for runner-up campaigns.

Net Worth of the Last 3-5 Presidents

  • Donald Trump's net worth when he was elected in 2016 was approximately $4.5 billion, while Hilary Clinton's was about $45 million in the same year.
  • Barack Obama's 2008 pre-election net worth was about $1.3 million. At the time, McCain's, his major competitor's, wealth was estimated at $19.64 million. However, it was noted that his real net worth might have been much higher due to "the major assets being listed in the name of his wife or children, thereby requiring far less detailed disclosure."
  • George W. Bush was one of the richest presidential candidates with about $20 million in 2000. His opponent, Albert Arnold Gore Jr, had an estimated net worth ranging from $1.4 to 2.5 million in the same year.

Additional Findings

Research Strategy

For this research, we leveraged the most reputable sources of information in the public domain, including USA Today, Open Secrets, Review Journal, Fortune, Metrocosm, CNN, Politi Fact, and Roll Call. In addition, the team relied on historical information for some aspects of the research, especially data surrounding the net worth of the former three presidents before running.

It is important to note that the spending figures are not reported consistently across sources. However, since the difference is not significant and we would not be able to provide multiple estimations for each data point, we made sure that all figures used are based on data from the Federal Election Commission and similar government sources, and provided one estimation from a reputable source for each question.
Part
02
of three
Part
02

Is it possible to abolish the electoral college and what would the consequences be?

Key Takeaways

  • According to Politico, among 2020 Democratic candidates, 16 support abolishing the Electoral College and four are against it.
  • Elizabeth Warren, a 2020 Democratic presidential candidate, supports overturning the electoral college through a constitutional amendment.
  • One way to abolish the electoral college could be to amend the Constitution. A two-thirds majority vote in the two houses of Congress would be required, followed by the ratification of three-fourths of the states.
  • According to Newsweek, one possible negative consequence of abolishing the electoral college is that it could lead to a political crisis.

Introduction

The research describes the process and possible consequences of abolishing the electoral college. Insights include the 2020 presidential candidates that support overturning the electoral college, two legal scenarios for abolishing the electoral college, and selected anticipated positive and negative consequences of abolishing the electoral college. Details are below.

2020 Presidential Candidates Who Support Overturning the Electoral College

  • According to Politico, among 2020 Democratic candidates, 16 support abolishing the Electoral College and four are against it. However, data for Republicans is not available in the public domain.
  • Some of those who support overturning the electoral college are Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, and Beto O'Rourke.
  • Elizabeth Warren was a 2020 Democratic presidential candidate. According to Politico, Warren is among those who support overturning the electoral college through a constitutional amendment.
  • In a video taken while on the campaign trail, Warren stated that the US should "get rid of the electoral college" (starting at 01:35 in the video) to make sure every vote counts.
  • Pete Buttigieg is another 2020 Democratic presidential candidate who supports abolishing the electoral college. According to Politico, he called the college undemocratic.
  • In this video published by WUSA9, Buttigieg stated that twice in his lifetime, he had witnessed the American people "overruled twice by the electoral college. It's time for that to go because it's undemocratic." (starting from 01:15 to 01:23 in the video).
  • In 2019, Beto O'Rourke, a Democratic candidate for President of the United States in 2020, endorsed the abolition of the electoral college while addressing the annual 'We the People Membership Summit' in Washington, D.C.

Two Legal Scenarios for Abolishing the Electoral College

Amending the Constitution

Using the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact

  • According to The New York Times, the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) could be adopted and used to replace the electoral college. It is an alternative way to give the presidency to the popular vote winner without amending the Constitution.
  • The NPVIC is an agreement that provides states that join the mandate to pass laws to allow them to award all their electoral votes to the national popular vote winner. The agreement can only take effect after enough states have joined to make up an electoral college majority of 270 votes.
  • Currently, states totaling 196 electoral votes have signed the agreement. 74 more electoral votes are required before it can take effect.

Possible Positive Consequences

Possible Negative Consequences

  • According to Newsweek, one possible negative consequence of abolishing the electoral college is that it could lead to a political crisis. One plan to nullify the electoral college is referred to as the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPV)
  • Newsweek states that abolishing the electoral college will encourage recounts nationwide, since the NVP encourages campaigns to seek recounts anywhere they think they can gain votes, even where the results are not close. The move could lead to more lawsuits like the 2000 election Bush v. Gore case and solidify the view that savvy lawyers and not voters deliver election victory.

Research Strategy

For this research, we leveraged the most reputable sources of information that were available in the public domain, including Politico, CNN, Brookings, and The New York Times. Since some parts of the research focused on historical information, slightly dated resources were used to add robustness and/or corroborate findings.
Part
03
of three
Part
03

Which US presidents would have lost the election by the popular vote?

Key Takeaways

  • The five US presidents who would have lost the election by the popular vote are Donald Trump, George W. Bush, Benjamin Harrison, Rutherford B. Hayes, and John Quincy Adams.
  • Hillary Clinton would have become the president after winning 65,845,063 popular votes against Trump's 62,980,160.
  • Al Gore would have become the president after winning 50,996,582 popular votes against Bush's 50,456,062.
  • Grover Cleveland would have become the president after winning 5,540,309 popular votes against Benjamin Harrison's 5,439,853.
  • Samuel Tilden would have become the president after winning 4,300,590 popular votes against Benjamin Harrison's 4,036,298.

Introduction

The report presents five US presidents who would have lost the election by the popular vote. They are Donald Trump, George W. Bush, Benjamin Harrison, Rutherford B. Hayes, and John Quincy Adams. Details are below.

US Presidents Who Would Have Lost Election By Popular Vote

Donald Trump

  • According to Ballotpedia, Hillary Clinton received enormous support in populous blue states like California and New York, which inflated her popular vote numbers (by 2,868,518), but added little to her Electoral College votes. "Trump won the Electoral College with 304 electoral votes to Clinton’s 227."
  • In addition, there were several "close races in battleground states with large populations," where the margins that separated the two were small. For example, Trump and Clinton were separated by margins of less than one percent in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
  • National Popular Vote says Trump won the elections because he led in Michigan by around 11,000 votes, Pennsylvania by approximately 44,000 votes, and Wisconsin by around 23,000 votes. According to National Popular Vote, the 78,000 votes from the three states were 36 times more important than the 2,868,518 votes cast in other states.

George W. Bush

  • According to the National Popular Vote, although Al Gore had 537,179 more popular votes, Bush won because he took Florida by 537 votes, and each of the "537 votes was 1,000 times more important than the 537,179 votes cast in other states."
  • As per History, the results were too close in Oregon, New Mexico, and Florida. Gore won Oregon and New Mexico by small margins, including taking New Mexico by just 366 votes. Florida was left to decide who became president. A recount took place due to the closeness of the results. Bush won in the state by 537 votes.
  • Gore sued and argued that not all ballots had been counted. The Florida Supreme Court supported Gore's allegations, but the US Supreme Court voted 5 to 4 to reverse the Florida Supreme Court’s decision and stop the recount after Bush appealed. After winning Florida, Bush won the Electoral College by 271 votes to Al Gore's 266.

Benjamin Harrison

  • Grover Cleveland would have become the president after winning 5,540,309 popular votes against Benjamin Harrison's 5,439,853.

Rutherford B. Hayes

  • Samuel Tilden would have become the president after winning 4,300,590 popular votes against Benjamin Harrison's 4,036,298.
  • According to History, Tilden won 184 electoral votes (one short of the majority needed at the time to win the presidency), while Hayes only won 165. However, 20 more electoral votes were disputed, and the Republicans and Democrats claimed their candidates had won Florida, Louisiana, and South Carolina.
  • Since there was no process for resolving the dispute, Congress created a bipartisan Federal Electoral Commission made up of House representatives, senators, and Supreme Court justices. The Commission voted to hand all 20 disputed electoral votes to Hayes, giving him a small victory in the elections of 185 (to Tilden’s 184).
  • According to History, most historians believe the Commission handed victory to Hayes after losing the popular and electoral vote because the two parties brokered a deal. The Democrats, who mainly occupied the South, agreed to let Hayes be president in return for the Republicans promising to pull all federal troops from former Confederate states.

John Quincy Adams

  • Andrew Jackson would have become the president after winning 153,544 popular votes against John Quincy Adams' 108,740.

Research Strategy

To identify five US presidents who would have lost the election by the popular vote, we leveraged the most reputable sources of information that were available in the public domain, including Ballotpedia, King 5, National Popular Vote, History, and Britannica.

Did this report spark your curiosity?

Sources
Sources

From Part 01
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