Projections, Number of People Using Insulin (US & Europe)
As there is no pre-compiled information on projections as it relates to insulin users specifically, we utilized data from WHO (World Health Organization), ADA (American Diabeties Association), CDC (Center for Disease Control), and the Department of Global Health. Projections and methodologies are below as they pertain to each geographical region. Further, I have included a Google spreadsheet with all necessary calculations and projections for reference. Please note: there is no consistent or recorded distinction between diabetics who classify as type 1 or type 2, so the numbers below are inclusive of all classifications of diabetes.
THE UNITED STATES
Please note. The most recent, holistic projections for diabetes in the United States is from 2015, as reported by the ADA, so all subsequent projections have been based off of this, and are in the attached spreadsheet. Further, the CDC confirmed that 23.8 million people in the United States in 2017 had diabetes, which is consistent with the ADA's projections in 2015 of roughly 1.4 million new cases of diabetes each year.
New cases each year, as predicted by the ADA: 1.4 million
Number of Americans who use insulin: 6 million
Looking at the data reported in 2015 (21 million diabetics), and the report that 6 million of those diabetics use insulin (either with or without other medications), we can determine that 29% of diabetics in the United States use insulin (6,000,000/21,000,000 = 29%).
Assuming the trend of an additional 1.4 million Americans each year diagnosed with diabetes, and taking into consideration that 29% of those Americans use insulin, we can predict that:
In 2023, there will be approximately 32.2 million Americans with diabetes, and 9.33 million of them will use insulin.
In 2028, there will be approximately 39.2 million Americans with diabetes, and 11.3 million of them will use insulin.
Please note — every year from 2015 to 2028 was calculated in the attached spreadsheet, with formulas included in each cell for reference.
As of 2014, as reported by the WHO, there were 60 million people in Europe with diabetes. Please note that the WHO classification of the European region includes over 50 countries, which have been included as a source for reference. By 2035, the WHO estimates that an additional 10 million Europeans will have been diagnosed with diabetes. Calculations were done using this projected additional 10 million, between the years of 2015 and 2035, for an average of 476,190 (10,000,000/21 = 467,190) additional cases of diabetes in Europe each year.
There was no insulin usage information as it pertains specifically to the European region. However, the Global Department of Health performed a study on the usage of insulin in April 2016, and concluded that the median usage of insulin among diabetics is 23.4%. This median percentage was used to calculate the projected amount of insulin users in Europe. Assuming a growth of 476,190 new diabetes cases a year, and 23.4% of all diabetics using insulin, we can project:
In 2023, there will be approximately 64.2 million Europeans with diabetes, and 15.04 million (64,200,000*0.234 = 15,040,000) insulin users.
In 2028, there will be approximately 66.6 million Europeans with diabetes, and 15.5 million insulin users.
Please note that every year from 2015 to 2028 was calculated in the attached spreadsheet, with formulas included in each cell for reference.
In 2023, there will be approximately 96.4 million people with diabetes in Europe and the United States, with 24.38 million projected insulin users. This is an average of 25% of all diabetics using insulin.
In 2028, there will be approximately 105.8 million people with diabetes in Europe and the United States, with 26.9million projected insulin users. This is an average of 25% of all diabetics using insulin.
Utilizing projections from the ADA and CDC for the United States, and the WHO and Global Department of Health for Europe, we can project the total number of people estimated to be using insulin, in both Europe and the United States, to be 24.3 million in 2023 and 26.9 million in 2028. The attached spreadsheet has all necessary projections and calculations, with formulas included in each cell for reference.