Commercial Vehicle Segments

Part
01
of two
Part
01

Light-Duty Trucks: Projected Size

From 2018 to 2026, projections estimate that the number of licensed commercial light-duty Class A trucks will grow from 46,517,159 to 46,804,479. During the same period, the number of licensed commercial light-duty Class B trucks will grow from 13,893,041 to 15,986,578.

Categories

  • According to the US Federal Highway Administration, trucks under 6,000 lbs are Class 1 light duty and 6,001 to 10,000 lbs are Class 2 light duty.
  • According to the American Trucking Association, 24% of all trucks on the road are licensed as commercial trucks.

Light-duty Class A Trucks

Light-duty Class B Trucks

Calculations

The number of light duty trucks licensed per year was retrieved from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics of the Department of Transportation.
We began with the year 2011 to eliminate the economic downturn which affected statistics from 2008 to 2010.
For each type of truck, the compounded annual growth rate was calculated from 2011 to 2017 using an online CAGR calculator.
Once we had the CAGR, we calculated each year's projected number of licensed trucks.

For example, for Light Duty Class A, the 2017 number, was multiplied by the CAGR for the 2018 number
Each subsequent year was calculated the same way, using the previous year times the CAGR.
The calculation was repeated for each year for each truck type.

Once we had the projected number of trucks expected to be licensed for each year for each type, we calculated 24% of each number.
That calculation was based on statistics from the American Trucking Association that 24% of the licensed trucks were for commercial use.
For example, for Light Duty Class A:

Full calculations for each year for each truck type is available on this spreadsheet.






Part
02
of two
Part
02

Medium-Duty Trucks: Projected Size

From 2018 to 2026, projections estimate that the number of licensed commercial medium duty trucks will grow from 2,298,470 to 2,815,799.

Categories

  • According to the US Federal Highway Administration, trucks between 10,000 and 26,000 pounds are classified as medium-duty trucks.
  • According to the American Trucking Association, 24% of all trucks on the road are licensed commercial trucks.

Medium Duty Class A Trucks

Calculations

The number of medium-duty trucks licensed per year was retrieved from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics of the Department of Transportation.
We began with the year 2011 to eliminate the economic downturn which affected statistics from 2008 to 2010.
For each type of truck, the compounded annual growth rate was calculated from 2011 to 2017 using an online CAGR calculator.
Once we had the CAGR, we calculated each year's projected number of licensed trucks.

For example, for medium-duty trucks, the 2017 number, was multiplied by the CAGR for the 2018 number
Each subsequent year was calculated the same way, using the previous year times the CAGR.
The calculation was repeated for each year for each truck type.

Once we had the projected number of trucks expected to be licensed for each year for each type, we calculated 24% of each number.
That calculation was based on statistics from the American Trucking Association that 24% of the licensed trucks were for commercial use.
For example, for medium-duty trucks
2018 = 9,576,959 * 24% = 2,298,470
2019 = 9,823,087 * 24% = 2,357,541.
2020 = 10,075,540 * 24% = 2,418,130.

Full calculations for each year for each truck type is available on this spreadsheet.


Sources
Sources