Commercial Truck Fuel Market Size

Part
01
of one
Part
01

Commercial Truck Fuel Market Size

The research team roughly estimated that the value of diesel purchased by commercial trucks will grow from $114.75 billion in 2019 to $121.05 billion by 2030. For gasoline, the reverse is the case, as it is expected that the amount spent by 2030 would be less than what is been spent currently. All calculations and assumptions have been detailed below.

Diesel-Powered Commercial Trucks Fuel Market Size

  • In 2018, the total value of diesel purchased by commercial trucks was estimated to be $117.42 billion, while it was estimated to be $114.75 billion in 2019.
  • The total value of diesel purchased by commercial trucks is projected to reach $116.07 billion by 2025 and $121.05 billion by 2030.

Gasoline-Powered Commercial Trucks Fuel Market Size

  • In 2018, the total value of gasoline purchased by commercial trucks was estimated to be $36.57 billion, while it was estimated to be $34.59 billion in 2019.
  • The total value of gasoline purchased by commercial trucks is projected to reach $33.87 billion by 2025 and $35.58 billion by 2030.

Electricity-Powered Commercial Trucks Energy Market Size

  • In 2018, the total value of electricity purchased by commercial trucks was estimated to be $17 million, while it was estimated to be $17.29 million in 2019.
  • The total value of electricity purchased by commercial trucks is projected to reach $18.76 million by 2025 and $18.64 million by 2030.

Additional Commercial Trucks Fuel Usage Findings

  • In 2015, the United States trucking industry spent $105.2 billion on buying diesel.
  • Diesel fuel "is often the second-highest expense for motor carriers after labor and can be as much as 20% of total operating costs."
  • The average class 8 truck uses 10,739 Gasoline Gallon Equivalents (GGE) of fuel annually, while the average delivery truck uses 1,754 GGE fuel per annum.
  • About 97% of class 8 trucks in the United States are powered by diesel, of which 44% are powered by the new generation of advanced diesel technology — a 7.3% increase over 2018 figures.
  • "Fuel economy among many vocational vehicles will improve by 10 percent and many work trucks by 15 percent by 2018."
  • In four years — between 2015-2019 — "the percentage of new-generation diesel trucks on America’s roads has nearly doubled — up from just 25.7% of the fleet in 2015."
  • Heavy-duty trucks (class 3-8) use 25% of all annual vehicle fuel use in the United States, even though they only represent 4% of all on-road vehicles in the United States.

Research Strategy

While reports detailing the market size for commercial truck fueling broken down by fuel type was not readily available, we triangulated the figure using data provided by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The triangulation was based on energy consumption and the average cost of the energy source, which in this case was diesel, gasoline, and electricity. Our calculations have been detailed below.

Commercial Trucks by Type

According to research by Diesel Technology Forum, approximately 10 million of all class 3-8 vehicles in the United States are diesel-powered, followed by gasoline (3 million), CNG (55K), and electric (1,000). The total class 3-8 vehicles in the United States: 10 million + 3 million + 55K + 1,000= 13,056,000 vehicles
Therefore, the share of diesel, gasoline, and electric in class 3-8 vehicles is:
  • Diesel: (10 million/13,056,000) * 100 = 76.59%
  • Gasoline: (3 million/13,056,000) * 100 = 22.98%
  • Electric: (1,000/13,056,000) * 100 = 0.0077%

Energy Consumption by Commercial Trucks

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the energy consumption by commercial trucks in the United States for 2018, 2019, and projected figures for 2025 and 2030 is:

2018

  • Commercial light trucks: 0.90 quadrillion Btu
  • Freight trucks: 5.72 quadrillion Btu
  • Total: 6.62 quadrillion Btu

2019

  • Commercial light trucks: 0.89 quadrillion Btu
  • Freight trucks: 5.88 quadrillion Btu
  • Total: 6.77 quadrillion Btu

2025

  • Commercial light trucks: 0.88 quadrillion Btu
  • Freight trucks: 5.87 quadrillion Btu
  • Total: 6.75 quadrillion Btu

2030

  • Commercial light trucks: 0.89 quadrillion Btu
  • Freight trucks: 5.71 quadrillion Btu
  • Total: 6.6 quadrillion Btu

Energy Consumption by Engine Type

Due to limited data on the percentage of commercial light trucks that are diesel-powered, we have assumed that the share of diesel, gasoline, and electricity in class 3-8 vehicles applies to all commercial vehicles. Based on this assumption, then the energy consumption per engine type for each target year is:

2018

  • Diesel: 76.59% of 6.62 quadrillion Btu = 5.07 quadrillion Btu
  • Gasoline: 22.98% of 6.62 quadrillion Btu = 1.52 quadrillion Btu
  • Electric: 0.0077% of 6.62 quadrillion Btu = 0.00051 quadrillion Btu

2019

  • Diesel: 76.59% of 6.77 quadrillion Btu = 5.19 quadrillion Btu
  • Gasoline: 22.98% of 6.77 quadrillion Btu = 1.56 quadrillion Btu
  • Electric: 0.0077% of 6.77 quadrillion Btu = 0.00052 quadrillion Btu

2025

  • Diesel: 76.59% of 6.75 quadrillion Btu = 5.17 quadrillion Btu
  • Gasoline: 22.98% of 6.75 quadrillion Btu = 1.55 quadrillion Btu
  • Electric: 0.0077% of 6.75 quadrillion Btu = 0.000519 quadrillion Btu

2030

  • Diesel: 76.59% of 6.6 quadrillion Btu = 5.05 quadrillion Btu
  • Gasoline: 22.98% of 6.6 quadrillion Btu = 1.52 quadrillion Btu
  • Electric: 0.0077% of 6.6 quadrillion Btu = 0.000508 quadrillion Btu

Market Size of Energy Consumption by Engine Type

Kindly note that 1 quadrillion Btu /1 million Btu = 1 billion
Market size: Energy consumed * average price of energy source

2018

Diesel
According to data from the EIA, the average price of diesel fuel in 2018 was 23.16 dollars per million Btu. Therefore, the total value of diesel purchased by commercial trucks in 2018 was:
5.07 quadrillion Btu * 23.16 $/million Btu = $117.42 billion

Gasoline
According to data from the EIA, the average price of gasoline in 2018 was 24.06 dollars per million Btu. Therefore, the total value of gasoline purchased by commercial trucks in 2018 was:
1.52 quadrillion Btu * 24.06 $/million Btu = $36.57 billion

Electric
According to data from the EIA, the average price of electricity for transport purposes in 2018 was 33.29 dollars per million Btu. Therefore, the total value of electricity purchased by commercial trucks in 2018 was:
0.00051 quadrillion Btu * 33.39 $/million Btu = $17 million

2019

Diesel
According to data from the EIA, the average price of diesel fuel in 2019 was 22.11 dollars per million Btu. Therefore, the total value of diesel purchased by commercial trucks in 2019 was:
5.19 quadrillion Btu * 22.11 $/million Btu = $114.75 billion

Gasoline
According to data from the EIA, the average price of gasoline fuel in 2019 was 22.17 dollars per million Btu. Therefore, the total value of gasoline purchased by commercial trucks in 2019 was:
1.56 quadrillion Btu * 22.17 $/million Btu = $34.59 billion

Electricity
According to data from the EIA, the average price of electricity in 2019 was 33.25 dollars per million Btu. Therefore, the total value of electricity purchased by commercial trucks in 2019 was:
0.00052 quadrillion Btu * 33.25 $/million Btu = $17.29 million

2025

Diesel
According to data from the EIA, the average price of diesel fuel in 2025 was 22.45 dollars per million Btu. Therefore, the total value of diesel purchased by commercial trucks in 2025 is projected to reach:
5.17 quadrillion Btu * 22.45 $/million Btu = $116.07 billion

Gasoline
According to data from the EIA, the average price of gasoline fuel in 2025 was 21.85 dollars per million Btu. Therefore, the total value of gasoline purchased by commercial trucks in 2025 is projected to reach:
1.55 quadrillion Btu * 21.85 $/million Btu = $33.87 billion

Electricity
According to data from the EIA, the average price of electricity in 2025 was 36.14 dollars per million Btu. Therefore, the total value of gasoline purchased by commercial trucks in 2025 is projected to reach:
0.000519 quadrillion Btu * 36.14 $/million Btu = $18.76 million

2030

Diesel
According to data from the EIA, the average price of diesel in 2030 was 23.97 dollars per million Btu. Therefore, the total value of diesel purchased by commercial trucks in 2030 is projected to reach:
5.05 quadrillion Btu * 23.97 $/million Btu = $121.05 billion

Gasoline
According to data from the EIA, the average price of gasoline in 2030 was 23.41 dollars per million Btu. Therefore, the total value of gasoline purchased by commercial trucks in 2030 is projected to reach:
1.52 quadrillion Btu * 23.41 $/million Btu = $35.58 billion

Electricity
According to data from the EIA, the average price of electricity in 2030 was 36.70 dollars per million Btu. Therefore, the total value of electricity purchased by commercial trucks in 2030 is projected to reach:
0.000508 quadrillion Btu * 36.70 $/million Btu = $18.64 million




Sources
Sources