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What cities in North America have the most square feet of retail development per capita?
Hello! Thanks for your question about which cities in the US and Canada have the greatest number of square feet of retail development per capita. The short version is that after searching extensively through news articles, government and corporate databases, and industry reports, I’ve determined that the information you requested is not publicly available because while the retail footprint of individual US cities is well-documented, the only public information on Canada's retail footprint is for the country as a whole. However, I was able to learn that Canada has 40% less retail square footage per capita than the US, and while US traditional retailers are in a downward spiral, Canadian retailers, and particularly malls, are still profitable and growing. Below you will find a deep dive of my research and methodology.
METHODOLOGY
We searched the internet for industry reports or articles from trusted media sites, hoping to find a source which had already done the research. We were fortunate to find one that provided exactly the answer you are looking for, but only for US cities. We then attempted to find the retail footprint for individual Canadian cities, but were unable to do so. Finally, we attempted to triangulate the answer for your overarching concern from the available data.
RESULTS
We could not find an equivalent tool for Canada, and searching for retail square footage in individual Canadian cities like Toronto or Vancouver failed to turn up any hard data. Even Canadian business research groups like the CBRE did not have this information, despite having information on total current commercial real estate footprints and new retail square footage being constructed.
The one hard figure that we found is that Canada has about 40% less retail square footage per person (16.5) than the US (23.6). If this retail density held true in all cities (which we admit is a huge assumption), Canada's most retail-dense city would have about 56 square feet per person, meaning that it might not appear on the list of top ten cities in North America at all.
OTHER USEFUL DATA
One of the key points that we found voiced over and over in recent reporting is that the US is severely over-developed when it comes to retail space, having "40 percent more shopping space per capita than Canada, five [or six] times more than the UK, and ten times more than Germany." The result has been a "downward spiral" for traditional American retailers. In contrast, Canadian malls are thriving, averaging $744 per square foot over the $466 of their US counterparts. This is attributed in part to not being over-saturated in retail, but also to Canadian malls successfully retooling themselves into "entertainment centers."
At present, the greatest amount of retail construction in Canada is taking place in Vancouver (2.1 million sq. ft. under construction), followed by Toronto (1.7 million sq. ft.), Calgary (1.5 million sq. feet), and Winnipeg (0.6 million sq. feet). While it is tempting to attempt to triangulate relative retail density from the new construction, we believe that this would ultimately give us misleading numbers. Nevertheless, it is clear that Canada still has a hunger for more traditional retail stores.
Given the combination of the continued growth and profitability of the Canadian retail space, we do not see it as saturated yet. The US retail store market, on the other hand, is clearly over-saturated and “in a downward spiral not seen since the Great Recession." It may be worthwhile to expand our survey of trusted media sites to see if more details can be gleaned regarding the contrast between the Canadian and US retail markets.
CONCLUSION
To wrap it up, after searching extensively through news articles, government databases, and industry reports, a direct answer to your question is not publicly available because while the retail footprint of individual US cities is well-documented, the only public information on Canada's retail footprint is for the country as a whole. However, I learned that Canada has 40% less retail square footage per capita than the US, and while US traditional retailers are in a downward spiral, Canadian retailers, and particularly malls, are still profitable and growing. If you’d like to continue research on any of the other topics I’ve outlined above, just let us know!
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