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How many cars on the road currently are Carplay compatible, and how is that number expected to grow in the next 5 years?
Hi there! Thanks for contacting Wonder for details of the number of cars on the road that are CarPlay compatible, and how that number is expected to grow in the next five years. The most useful sources for answering this question were the Apple website and data around car numbers and car sales.
The short version is that the number of CarPlay compatible cars on the roads looks set to increase a lot over the next five years. In the USA, numbers will rise from at least 16.9M (6.3%) in 2016 to 100.9M (36.3%) by 2022. In the UK, numbers will rise from at least 2.59M (8.17%) in 2016 to 15.49M (46.5%) by 2022. In Canada, numbers will rise from at least 1.87M (5.6%) in 2016 to 11.21M (32%) by 2022. In Australia, numbers will rise from at least 1.13 M (6.14%) in 2016 to 6.78M (34.8%) by 2022.
Below is a deep dive of my findings.
COMPATIBLE MODELS
Apple's website shows that CarPlay is compatible with 250 models of car. According to Statista, there were 261 models of car in the USA in 2016. Therefore, we can calculate that CarPlay is compatible with the latest version of 95.8% of car models (250/261).
CARS ON THE ROAD AND FUTURE GROWTH
---USA---
Therefore, we can say that there were at least 16.9M CarPlay compatible vehicles on US roads in 2016 (17.6*0.958).
For the purposes of these calculations, we will assume car sales will remain the same at 17.6M per annum for the next five years.
The total number of cars on the road increased from 253M to 263M between 2011 and 2015, growth of around 4% total, or 0.8% per annum. Assuming similar growth up to 2022, it is possible to estimate that there were 265M vehicles on US roads in 2016 and 278M by 2022.
Assuming average new vehicle sales of 17.6M per annum, we can estimate that there will be 88M new vehicles on US roads over the next five years, of which 84M (88*0.958) will be CarPlay compatible.
This will make a total of 100.9M (16.9+84) CarPlay compatible cars by 2022.
As it is likely that the cars being removed from the road are those that are not compatible with CarPlay, it is safe to say that CarPlay's percentage penetration is likely to increase a lot over the next five years from 6.3% (16.9/265) in 2016 to 34.3% (95.5/278) by 2022.
---UK---
Therefore, we can say that there were at least 2.59M CarPlay compatible vehicles on UK roads in 2016 (2.7*0.958).
The total number of vehicles on UK roads hit 31.7M in 2016. Assuming similar growth to the USA, 0.8% per annum, it is likely there will be 33.3M vehicles on UK roads by 2022.
Assuming new vehicle sales remain constant over the next five years at 2.7M per annum, we we can estimate that there will be 13.5M new vehicles on UK roads over the next five years, of which 12.9M (13.5*0.958) will be CarPlay compatible.
This will make a total of 15.49M (2.59+12.9) CarPlay compatible cars in the UK by 2022.
CarPlay's percentage penetration is likely to increase over the next five years from 8.17% (2.59/31.7) in 2016 to 46.5% (15.49/33.3) by 2022.
---CANADA---
Therefore, we can say that there were at least 1.87M CarPlay compatible vehicles on Canadian roads in 2016 (1.95*0.958).
The total number of vehicles on Canadian roads hit 33.17M in 2015. Assuming similar growth to the USA, 0.8% per annum, it is likely there were 33.43M in 2016, and that there will be 35.07M vehicles on Candaian roads by 2022.
Assuming new vehicle sales remain constant over the next five years at 1.95M per annum, we we can estimate that there will be 9.75M new vehicles on Canadian roads over the next five years, of which 9.34M (9.75*0.958) will be CarPlay compatible.
This will make a total of 11.21M (1.87+9.34) CarPlay compatible cars in the Canada by 2022.
CarPlay's percentage penetration is likely to increase over the next five years from 5.6% (1.87/33.43) in 2016 to 32% (11.21/33.3) by 2022.
---AUSTRALIA---
Therefore, we can say that there were at least 1.13M CarPlay compatible vehicles on Australian roads in 2016 (1.18*0.958).
The total number of vehicles on Australian roads hit 18.4M in 2016. Assuming similar growth to the USA, 0.8% per annum, it is likely there will be 19.46M vehicles on Australian roads by 2022.
Assuming new vehicle sales remain constant over the next five years at 1.18M per annum, we can estimate that there will be 5.9M new vehicles on Australian roads over the next five years, of which 5.65M (13.5*0.958) will be CarPlay compatible.
This will make a total of 6.78M (1.13+5.65) CarPlay compatible cars in the Australia by 2022.
CarPlay's percentage penetration is likely to increase over the next five years from 6.14% (1.13/18.4) in 2016 to 34.8% (6.78/19.46) by 2022.
CONCLUSION
In summary, the number of CarPlay compatible cars on the roads looks set to increase a lot over the next five years. In the USA, numbers will rise from at least 16.9M (6.3%) in 2016 to 100.9M (36.3%) by 2022. In the UK, numbers will rise from at least 2.59M (8.17%) in 2016 to 15.49M (46.5%) by 2022. In Canada, numbers will rise from at least 1.87M (5.6%) in 2016 to 11.21M (32%) by 2022. In Australia, numbers will rise from at least 1.13 M (6.14%) in 2016 to 6.78M (34.8%) by 2022.
I hope this information is useful. Please get in touch with any further questions and one of our expert researchers will be delighted to provide a response. Thank you for choosing Wonder!