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How many cars on the road currently are Carplay compatible, and how is that number expected to grow in the next 5 years?
Hello!
Thanks for your question about Carplay's market size in English speaking countries. The most useful sources I found to answer your question are a report done by Business Insider Intelligence and a study done by IHS Automotive . The short version is that in 2015 there were approximately 202,000 vehicles connected to Carplay in major English speaking countries. That number is expected to rise to 8.7 million by 2020. Below you will find a deep dive of my findings.
METHODOLOGY
First I found the global numbers for cars connected to Carplay in 2015 as well as a year-by-year projection through to 2020. Then I calculated the percentage of the world's vehicles which are in major English speaking countries, and multiplied that with the global numbers for cars connected to Carplay, to get the approximate total number of vehicles connected to Carplay in major English speaking countries.
NUMERICAL WORK
1. Year-by-year projections for vehicles connected to Carplay globally:
2. Percentage of global vehicles which are registered in major English speaking countries: (approximately 23.5 percent)
a) Total number of cars in major English speaking countries:
Total = 347.6 million (in 2015)
Jamaica = approximately 0.5 million (in 2015)
*for Jamaica the number had to be triangulated by multiplying (0.188 vehicles per capita (in 2014) x population of 2.8 million people (in 2015)
Calculation: Percent of the worlds vehicles which are registered in major English speaking countries = 347.6 divided by 1477
= 23.5 per cent
*note: I tried to use only 2015 numbers to have the percentage be as accurate as possible
3. By multiplying the year-by-year projections in (1) with the percentage calculated in (2) we arrive at the approximate number of vehicles projected to be connected to Carplay in major English speaking countries.
ASSUMPTIONS
1. The questions asks for the number of cars which are Carplay compatible, but the statistics found are for the number of cars which are actually connected to Carplay. The number which are compatible will be greater than this (by up to 2.5 times ) but if the market is radio listeners then the number who are actually connected is more relevant. (and I only found solid numbers for actual connectivity, not for capability)
2. I assumed that the percentage of uptake for Carplay is statistically similar in English speaking countries vs non-English speaking countries.
3. I assumed that English speaking countries with a population of less than 1 million are not statistically relevant (and the numbers are not readily accessible).
CONCLUSION
To wrap it up, the approximate projected number of cars connected to Carplay in English speaking countries (for the years 2015-2020) are as follows:
2015 = 202,000
2016 = 940,000
2017 = 1.9 million
2018 = 3.8 million
2019 = 6.1 million
2020 = 8.7 million
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