Cancer Incidence: Lifetime Smokers and Elderly

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Cancer Incidence: Lifetime Smokers and Elderly

The yearly cancer incidence rates in the United States in the elderly population ages 60-64, 75-79 and 80-84 was 1,156.3, 2,117.3 and 2,198.3 per 100,000 people in 2016 respectively. Meanwhile, the estimated cancer incidence rate for smokers that had more than 100 cigarettes in their lifetime and smoked some days or every day was 1,855.8 per 100,000 people. The requested information was entered in columns B-D of the attached spreadsheet.

NEW CANCERS BY AGE GROUP U.S.

AGE GROUPS
  • According to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the number of new cancers by age group in 2016 was:
SMOKERS
  • There were 701,502 new cancer cases associated with tobacco use in 2016.

CANCER INCIDENCE RATE U.S.

AGE GROUPS

  • According to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, the incidence rate of new cancers by age group in 2016 was:
      • Age group 60-64 = 1,156.3 per 100,000 people.
      • Age group 75-79 = 2,117.3 per 100,000 people.
      • Age group 80-84 = 2,198.3 per 100,000 people.
    • Please note that the age-adjusted rates are the number of cancer cases per 100,000 people.
    SMOKERS
    • The estimated incidence rate for new cancers associated with tobacco use was 1,855.8 per 100,000 people in 2016. (calculated)

    U.S. POPULATION 2016

    AGE GROUPS

  • The U.S. population between ages 60 and 64 was 19,490,888 in 2016.
  • The U.S. population between ages 75 and 79 was 11,816,452.
  • The U.S. population between ages 80 and 84 was 5,869,693.

  • SMOKERS

  • According to a report by the CDC, there were 37.8 million adult smokers in the United States in 2016.
  • Please note that the current smokers mentioned this report are people who smoked more than 100 cigarettes during their lifetime and smoked some days or every day.
  • PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE THAT DEVELOP CANCER

    AGE GROUPS
    • The percentage of people that developed cancer in 2016 was 1.16% for ages between 60 and 64. (calculated)
    • The percentage of people that developed cancer in 2016 was 2.12% for ages between 75 and 79. (calculated)
    • The percentage of people that developed cancer in 2016 was 2.20% for ages between 80 and 84. (calculated)
    SMOKERS
    • The percentage of smokers that developed cancer in the United States was 1.86% in 2016. (Calculated)

    RESEARCH STRATEGY

    We first started our search by looking for pre-compiled information about the incidence rates for the requested age groups and lifetime smokers. We scanned various pages that provide cancer statistics in the United States including the American Cancer Society, National Cancer Institute and others. The most recent report was published by the American Cancer Society in 2019 with various statistics about cancer in the United States, but there was no information about incidence rates for lifetime smokers or breakdown by age groups. We did find that the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (NAACCR) was mentioned as a source, so we scanned their website. There were numerous statistics related to cancer on one of their pages, but the incidence rates data was for different ages groups and there was no mention of cancers related to lifetime smokers.

    Next, we searched various government pages, health organizations and research pages including Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, US National Library of Medicine, Research Gate, where we wanted to find if there are other reports related to incidence rates and new cancer case for the requested age groups as well as for lifetime smokers. We identified that CDC published cancer statistics for 2016 that had a breakdown of incidence rates, new cancer cases by age groups and information about cancers related to tobacco use. The population and breakdown used in this report were slightly off by one year from the requested age groups, but we also found that the data was age-adjusted to the 2000 U.S. standard population, which led us to the conclusion that these age groups were probably used in most reports as a standard by health organizations. We also found a report with the number of current smokers in the United States in 2016. We concluded that people identified in the previously mentioned report can be considered as lifetime smokers since they smoked more than 100 cigarettes in their lifetime and "were smoking every day or some days".

    Finally, we scanned various medical news and publications including Medscape, Medical News Today, MedicineNet, Science Daily and others, where we hoped to find if there was any other information about new cancer cases for different age groups and lifetime smokers in the United States. These pages mostly provided information about risks for developing cancer associated to smokers and tobacco use and cancer deaths related to older age groups, but there was no other data for new cancer cases or incidence rates by age groups and lifetime smokers. Since, there was no other more recent or relevant cancer statistics available in the public domain, we added the incidence rates by age groups from the CDC reports to our findings and decided to use the number of current smokers and new cancer cases associated with tobacco use to calculate the incidence rate for lifetime smokers in the United States.

    CALCULATIONS

    INCIDENCE RATE FOR CANCERS ASSOCIATED WITH TOBACCO USE

    We calculated the cancer incidence rate by using the following formula:

    Incidence rate = (New cancers / Population) * 100,000

    The number of new cancer cases associated with tobacco use was 701,502 in 2016.
    The number of current smokers was 37.8 million in 2016.

    Incidence rate = (701,502 / 37,800,000) * 100,000
    Incidence rate = 0.018558 * 100,000

    The incidence rate of new cancer cases associated with tobacco use in 2016 = 1,855.8

    PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE THAT DEVELOP CANCER BY AGE GROUPS

    We calculated the percentage of people that develop cancer by using the following formula:

    Percentage = (New cancers / Population) * 100

    Percentage of people that develop cancer age group 60-64:

    The number of new cancers for age group 60-64 was 225,365.
    The population for age group 60-64 was 19,490,888.

    Age group 60-64 percentage = (225,365 / 19,490,888) * 100
    Age group 60-64 percentage = 0.01156 * 100

    Percentage of people that develop cancer age group 60-64 = 1.16%

    Percentage of people that develop cancer age group 75-79:

    The number of new cancers for age group 75-79 was 177,317.
    The population for age group 75-79 was 8,374,755.

    Age group 75-79 percentage = (177,317 / 8,374,755) * 100
    Age group 75-79 percentage = 0.02117 * 100

    Percentage of people that develop cancer age group 75-79: = 2.12%

    Percentage of people that develop cancer age group 80-84:

    The number of new cancers for age group 80-84 was 129,034.
    The population for age group 80-84 was 5,869,693.

    Age group 80-84 percentage = (129,034 / 5,869,693) * 100
    Age group 80-84 percentage = 0.02198 * 100

    Percentage of people that develop cancer age group 80-84: = 2.20%

    Percentage of people that develop cancer associated with tobacco use:

    The number of new cancers associated with tobacco use was 701,502.
    The number of smokers in 2016 was 37.8 million.

    Percentage = (701,502 / 37,800,000) * 100
    Percentage = 0.01856

    Percentage of people that develop cancer associated with tobacco use = 1.86%











    Sources
    Sources

    Quotes
    • "Rates are the number of cases (or deaths) per 100,000 people and are age-adjusted to the 2000 U.S. standard population (19 age groups – Census P25–1130)."
    Quotes
    • "Rates are the number of cases per 100,000 people and are age-adjusted to the 2000 U.S. standard population (19 age groups – Census P25–1130)."
    Quotes
    • "Current cigarette smokers were respondents who reported having smoked ≥100 cigarettes during their lifetime and were smoking every day or some days at the time of interview."