Part
01
of twenty-six
Part
01
California Market Segmentation - Age Groups
According to data provided by the California Department of Finance, the 2019 millennial population of California is approximately 8,035,380, or 19.941% of the total population; the 2019 Generation X population is approximately 7,691,051, or 19.086% of the total population; and the 2019 baby boomer population is approximately 8,506,596, or 21.110% of the total population. These figures have also been added to the relevant cells of the attached spreadsheet. Below is the methodology employed to find this data, followed by a complete breakdown of the data itself and the calculations used to arrive at these figures, as well as the age ranges used to define the millennial, Generation X and baby boomer generations in the context of this report.
Methodology
To find the population of California broken down on generational lines, we first conducted a search of governmental agencies, both federal and state. The US Census Bureau conducts a decennial census that could provide reliable data, but unfortunately the most recent census was conducted in 2010; a 2018 population estimate from the agency is not broken down by age. The California Department of Finance offers one relevant data set: projections of California's total population broken into five-year age groups, with a baseline from 2016. This would allow us to calculate the approximate generational breakdown of California's population in 2019, based on the agency's yearly projections.
Nonetheless, we continued our search, hoping to find data that was more granular (i.e. broken into more precise age groups) and/or more recent. We could not find any other useful data provided by governmental organizations, so as a second approach we conducted a search of reputable nongovernmental organizations, such as Pew Research, Gallup and others. We found a potentially-useful data set provided by the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation, a nonprofit research and analysis organization. Two drawbacks of this data are its age (produced in 2017) and its less-granular nature, broken into ten-year age ranges, as opposed to the five-year ranges of the California Department of Finance Data. We could not find any additional data sets from nongovernmental organizations that could be more useful than those already found.
As a third approach to find more granular or up-to-date data, we conducted a news search, including both nationally-focused outlets like The New York Times and The Washington Post, as well as outlets focused on California, like the Orange County Register (OCR). Our aim with this approach was to find news articles which could lead us to better data sets than the ones already found. However, we could not find any superior data sets in relevant articles. In fact, the OCR published a relevant article, but drew from the above-mentioned US Census Bureau and California Department of Finance data. Our failure to find superior data in this approach suggests that the data uncovered in the previous two approaches is likely the best data currently available in the public domain.
Of the three potentially-useful data sets found, we elected to utilize the California Department of Finance data. It is based on more recent data than the US Census Bureau data (2016 vs. 2010) and is more granular than the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation data (five-year vs. ten-year age ranges). Additionally, the California Department of Finance's projections, based on a robust scientific methodology, allows us to provide 2019 estimates, in lieu of data from several years ago that would be slightly outdated. Furthermore, the California Department of Finance data is widely-cited, both by media outlets like the OCR and by reputable organizations like Public Policy Institute of California, indicating its widespread acceptance and authoritativeness. Below are the calculations we performed, based on this data, to determine the California population broken down on generational lines.
Data and Calculations
Because the California Department of Finance data breaks down California's population by five-year age ranges, we could not conform strictly to the generational age ranges of 23-38 for millennials, 39-54 for Generation X, and 55-75 for baby boomers. We modified these ranges slightly, as follows:
Millennials: 25-39
Generation X: 40-54
Baby boomers: 55-74
According to this data set, the approximate total population of California is as follows:
According to this data set, the approximate 2019 millennial population of California is as follows:
According to this data set, the approximate 2019 Generation X population of California is as follows:
According to this data set, the approximate 2019 baby boomer population of California is as follows: