Market Analysis - Biogas Electricity Market: United States
The US biogas electricity market was valued at approximately $4.06 billion as of 2019. Additionally, the US market is forecast to grow to $5.3 billion by 2025. However, the market size for 2030 can not be reliably estimated with publicly available data.
- According to Grand View Research, the US biogas market was valued at $6.9 billion in 2016 and $7.1 billion in 2017.
- Using this information, the growth rate for the US biogas market from 2016 to 2017 was 2.9%.
- The calculation for this growth rate is as follows: $7,100,000,000 / $6,900,000,000 - 1 = 0.0289.
- While there is no publicly available, quantitative information about the composition of the US biogas market by application, Fortune Business Insights reports that electricity represents 54% of the global biogas market.
- By using this global composition information as an approximation for the US market, as well as data about the US biogas market in 2016 and 2017 as a predictor of market growth through 2019, the US biogas electricity market was approximated at $4.06 billion as of 2019.
- The calculation for the US biogas electricity market in 2019 is as follows: $7,100,000,000 * (1 + 0.0298)^2 * 0.54 = $4,059,482,042.
- Although quantitative data about the growth rate of the US biogas electricity market through 2025 is not publicly available, NK Wood Research reports that the North America biofuels and biodiesel market will grow at a CAGR of 4.6% for the period between 2018 and 2026.
- Corroborating this regional growth rate, Fortune Business Insights reports that the global biogas market will grow at a CAGR of 4.65% between 2018 and 2026, while Grand View Research indicates that the worldwide biogas market will grow at a CAGR of 4.48% between 2020 and 2027.
- Moreover, Grand View Research, Global Market Insights, Fortune Business Insights are among the preponderance of industry experts that suggest the North American biogas market will grow at a "substantial rate" through 2027, and that the US will represent the "lion's share" of the North American market share and growth over the period.
- This qualitative data further corroborates that it is reasonable to assume the US biogas electricity market will grow at CAGR that is at least equivalent to the global annual growth rate of 4.48% or more.
- Based on the fact that the CAGR for the North America biofuels and biodiesel market is more precisely relevant to the US biogas electricity market, this CAGR of 4.6% for the period between 2018 and 2026 was used to estimate the US biogas electricity market at $5.3 billion as of 2025.
- The calculation for the US biogas electricity market in 2025 is as follows: $4,059,482,042 * (1 + 0.046)^6 = $5,316,927,417.
- Publicly available information on the global biogas market suggests the size and growth rate of this industry by 2030 is currently unknown.
- Notably, several market researchers (e.g., PR.com, Helmut Kaiser Consultancy) provide detailed forecasts for the global biogas market as of 2030, however this information is not publicly available.
- Additionally, the International Energy Agency forecasts biogas demand for both North America as well as globally, however these estimates apply only to direct use and are based on "stated policy scenario" rather than a quantitative analysis of actual market data.
- Moreover, the most forward-looking forecast for the global biogas market is inconsistent with current market estimates.
- Specifically, Navigant Research forecasts the market will reach $20.9 billion by 2028, while a wide variety of industry experts (e.g., Grand View Research, Global Market Insights) report that the market has already reached or exceeded this value.
- Given the limited, publicly available information on the size or growth rate for the biogas industry beyond 2025, and the inability to corroborate or otherwise validate limited data, it was deemed appropriate to conclude that the size and growth rate of this industry by 2030 can not be reliably forecast, either for the US or globally.
An extensive review of credible media sources (e.g., Biomass Magazine), industry reports (e.g., National Renewable Energy Laboratory) and articles by experts in the US biogas market (e.g., US Energy Information Administration) failed to identify publicly available, directly compiled information about the size and growth rate of the US biogas electricity market for 2019, 2025 or 2030. Although this research process identified a report on the US biogas market by Renewable Energy Magazine, all details related to market size, growth rate and composition by application (e.g., electricity, heat, vehicle fuel) were behind a paywall.
Several additional strategies were attempted to ascertain the market size and/or growth of the US biogas electricity market. For example, in-depth searches of biogas associations in the US (e.g., American Biogas Council) and globally (e.g., World Biogas Association) were conducted to identify fact sheets, presentations and other potential resources discussing the US biogas electricity market. However, available information was either insufficient to triangulate the market size/growth rate, or was behind paywalls.
However, this extensive research process identified relevant insights related to the US biogas electricity market, and these findings are provided within the above summary.