Asthma Treatment

Part
01
of three
Part
01

Forecast the number of asthma patients treated with Corticosteroids annually over the next 5 years.

The estimated number of people who will use corticosteroids for the forecast period of 2018 to 2022 is 296.23 million, 304.08 million, 321.14 million, 320.42 million, and 382.91 million respectively. The expected growth rate for the forecast period is 2.65% per annum. Even after searching extensively through industry reports, market reports, corporate websites, health and asthma authority websites, academic reports, and trusted media sites, we could not find exact data regarding the number of asthma patients treated with corticosteroids annually over the next five years. Therefore, we had to perform triangulation using the existing information which is presented below. The estimated figures are also provided in the attached spreadsheet.

Total asthma patients over the forecast period

In 2015, the total population of asthma patients across the globe was about 334 million. The number asthma patients are increasing day by day and an additional 100 million people are likely to develop asthma all over the world by the year 2025.
Calculations:
Total asthma patients in the year 2015 = 334 million
Projected asthma patients for the year 2025 = (334+100) million = 434 million
Forecast period = 2025-2015 = 10 years
We used the CAGR calculator to estimate for this forecast period and found it to be approximately 2.65%. I used this growth rate to calculate the total number of asthma patients for each year individually with the help of the reverse CAGR calculator. The estimated number of asthma patients for each year is provided below:
2015: 334 million
2018: 361.26 million
2019: 370.84 million
2020: 380.66 million
2021: 390.75 million
2022: 401.11 million

Estimated number of patients who use corticosteroids

First of all, corticosteroids is not a particular brand of a drug but a family of drugs used to treat various disorders. These can be oral as well as inhalations. Therefore, projections are made covering both types of usage. About 67.1% of total asthma patients are mild asthma patients. Corticosteroids are used to treat both mild persistent asthma and mild intermittent asthma. The combination of high or low dose of inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) with other medication is used for the treatment of moderate and severe asthma as well. Therefore, corticosteroids are projected to have the largest amount of asthma treatment market share. Flixotide/Flovent and Seretide/Advair are the most commonly prescribed corticosteroids. They are used in combination therapy for around 50% of asthma patients. Bronchodilators' monotherapy is the only therapy which does not use corticosteroids during the treatment of asthma. The market share of bronchodilators' monotherapy was $3.75 billion out of a $20.7 billion total market share of global asthma therapeutics market, which is about 18% of total asthma therapeutics market share. This leaves about 82% of patients taking corticosteroids in the form of monotherapy or combination therapy for asthma treatment. So, projecting the figures for 82% of therapy for the forecast period of 2018 to 2022, the number of asthma patients treated with corticosteroids can be calculated.
Calculations:
2015: 82% of 334 million = about 273.88 million
2018: 82% of 361.26 million = about 296.23 million
2019: 82% of 370.84 million = about 304.08 million
2020: 82% of 380.66 million = about 321.14 million
2021: 82% of 390.75 million = about 320.42 million
2022: 82% of 401.11 million = about 382.91 million

Conclusion

The number of asthma patients who will be treated with corticosteroids is projected to reach 382.91 million in 2022 from 296.23 million in 2018 growing at the rate of 2.65% per annum. While publicly available data with direct information about corticosteroids treatment was not found, we used the existing information to triangulate and estimate the projected number of asthma patients treated with corticosteroids annually over the next five years. The summary of our findings is provided in the attached spreadsheet.
Part
02
of three
Part
02

Forecast the number of asthma patients treated with Xolair annually over the next 5 years.

After extensive research, we determined that industry reports, market outlooks, and surveys which directly state the anticipated number of patients with asthma being treated with Xolair—within the next 5 years—are largely unavailable. However, according to our triangulations, there will be around 10,095,600 asthma patients in 2018 that will be treated with Xolair, followed by 10,264,800 in 2019, 10,434,000 in 2020, 10,603,200 in 2021, and 10,772,400 in 2022. As requested, we filled-in rows 2-6 of column D of the treatments tab within the provided spreadsheet.

FINDINGS AND CALCULATIONS

TOTAL NUMBER OF PEOPLE WITH ASTHMA

The initial phase of our research involved the identification of reports which provide data about the overall number of people who currently have asthma. According to a 2016 report by NCBI, there were around 334 million patients with asthma. Experts also believe that this figure will rise to around 400 million by 2025. With this data, we are able to roughly estimate that the number of asthma patients is forecast to increase at a rate of 6 million per year.

CALCULATIONS
A. 400 million - 334 million = 66 million
B. 66 million / 11 years (2015 to 2025) = 6 million people per year

Assuming that this rate of increase remains constant within the next five years, we are able to calculate that by the year 2018, there will be around 358 million patients with asthma.

Let A = number of patients with asthma in 2014
Let B = number of years between 2014 and given year
Let C = 6 million
Let n = number of patients with asthma within given year
We will be working with this formula: n = A+C*B

2015 = 334 million + 6 million * 1
2015 = 340 million

Using this formula, we arrived at the following values:

2016 = 346 million
2017 = 352 million
2018 = 358 million
2019 = 364 million
2020 = 370 million
2021 = 376 million
2022 = 382 million

MARKET SHARE OF XOLAIR

The next phase of our research involved comparing the market size of the overall asthma treatments industry with the market size of Xolair. A report published by Kmov states that the global asthma treatments industry reached a value of $18.9 billion as of 2015. Experts believe that this figure will grow up to $28.3 billion by 2022 at a CAGR of 5.95 percent. Following this rate of increase, we can calculate that by 2016, the global market size for asthma treatments would have amounted to $29.68 billion. (28.3 billion * 0.0595 + 28.3 billion = 29.68385 billion) We will use these findings to triangulate for the number of asthmatic people treated with Xolair within the next 5 years.

According to the annual reports of Novartis, Genentech and Roche currently document the sales of Xolair within the US only, while Novartis documents the sales outside of the US.

During the year 2016, sales for Xolair in the US amounted to CHF 1.498 million. We decided to consult Credit Suisse for the average exchange rate between CHF and USD in June 2016 and found that this value is equivalent to $1.452610 million. (1,498,000 * 0.9697 = 1,452,610.6) Sales outside the US within the same year amounted to $835 million. This means that overall global sales of Xolair for the year 2016 reached $836.45261 million. (835,000,000 + 1,452,610 = 836,452,610)

With these findings, we are able to calculate for the market share of Xolair in the global asthma treatments industry.

CALCULATIONS
Let A = Total sales of Xolair in 2016
Let B = Total global market share of asthma treatments
Let n = Market share of Xolair
We will be working with this formula: n = A/B

836,452,610 / 29,683,850,000 = 0.0281787103088043

The market share of Xolair, based on 2016 data, is 2.82 percent.

NUMBER OF ASTHMA Patients THAT USE XOLAIR

With our findings so far, we are able to estimate that in 2016, there were around 9,418,800 patients that use Xolair worldwide. We are also now able to estimate the number of patients with asthma until the year 2022.

CALCULATIONS
Let A = Number of asthma patients in 2016 (334 million)
Let B = Market share of Xolair in 2016 (2.82%)
Let n = Number of asthma patients that use Xolair
We followed this formula: n = A*B

2016 = 334,000,000 * 0.0282 = 9,418,800
2016 = 9,418,800
2017 = 9,926,400
2018 = 10,095,600
2019 = 10,264,800
2020 = 10,434,000
2021 = 10,603,200
2020 = 10,772,400

OTHER USEFUL FINDINGS

Throughout our research, we found additional data points and estimates which may prove insightful in accomplishing what you need.

MARKET SHARE OF MABS
According an article published by Digitas Health, monoclonal antibody treatments consist of 12 percent of the market of asthma treatments. NCBI states that Xolair, with the generic name of Omalizumab, is classified as a monoclonal antibody treatment (mAbs). After exhaustive research, we were able to determine that there are no market reports, research papers, or surveys which provide a further breakdown for each type of mAbs asthma treatment.

With these findings, we are able to roughly estimate the number of patients suffering from asthma who are being treated with mAbs such as Xolair.

CALCULATIONS
Let A = Number of people with asthma during the given year
Let B = Market share of mAbs (12%)
Let n = Number of asthmatic people being treated with mAbs
We will be working with this formula: n = A*B

2018 = 358 million * 0.12
2018 = 42.96 million

Using this formula, we arrived at the following values:
2019 = 43.68 million
2020 = 44.4 million
2021 = 45.12 million
2022 = 45.84 million

CONCLUSION

All publicly available information indicate that the number of patients with asthma being treated with Xolair will increase from around 10,095,600 in 2018, to 10,264,800 in 2019, 10,434,000 in 2020, 10,603,200 in 2021, and 10,772,400 in 2022. As requested, we summarized all our findings and filled-in rows 2-6 of column D of the treatments tab within the provided spreadsheet.
Part
03
of three
Part
03

Forecast the number of asthma patients treated with Ventoline annually over the next 5 years.

After searching exhaustively through industry reports, market reports, corporate websites, health and asthma authority websites, academic reports, and trusted media sites, we were unable to locate any direct insights which provide a forecast for the number of asthma patients treated with Ventolin annually over the next five years. However, we have utilized the existing information and performed a series of triangulations in order to provide an estimate for each year. Our final estimates are as follows:

2018 13.067 million people
2019 13.213 million people
2020 13.357 million people
2021 13.460 million people
2022 14.669 million people

You can access your spreadsheet here.

Below, you will find a deep dive of our findings. Please note that during our research, we learned that Ventolin is the proper spelling of this medication, although it is frequently misspelled as 'Ventoline.'

VENTOLIN current SALES

In order to triangulate estimates for the number of asthma patients treated with Ventolin annually over the next five years, we first began by locating the annual of Ventolin from the past five years, as this information will be used to estimate the projected sales of Ventolin for the next five years. We were able to locate the annual sales of Ventolin from the past five years within GSK's annual reports. These sales are as follows:

2013: £642 million
2014: £665 million
2015: £620 million
2016: £785 million
2017: £767 million

Using these sales figures, we calculated each year's sales growth from the previous year. The growth from 2012-2013 was given. The sales growth for each year is as follows:

2013: 2% increase in sales.
2014: About 4% increase in sales.
2015: About 7% decrease in sales.
2016: About 21% increase in sales.
2017: About 3% decrease in sales.

Calculations:
2014: £665 million is about 96% of £642 million. 100-96=4 (%).
2015: £620 million is about 93% of £665 million. 100-93=7 (%).
2016: £620 million is about 79% of £785 million. 100-79=21 (%).
2017: £767 million is about 97% of £785 million. 100-97=3 (%).

Ventolin projected sales

In order to find Ventolin's projected sales for the next five years, we first utilized the growth percentages identified above to find the average growth percentage across all five years, which is 3.8%.

Calculation:
2% + 4% + -7% + 21% + -3% = 19%.
19% / 5 years = 3.8%

Using this average growth figure, we calculated the projected sales of Ventolin for the next five years if sales of Ventolin were to continue along with this trend. The projected sales of Ventolin for the next five years are as follows:

2018: £796 million
2019: £826 million
2020: £857 million
2021: £889 million
2022: £992 million

Calculations:
2018: 3.8% of £767 million is about £29 million.
£767 million + £29 million = £796 million.
2019: 3.8% of £796 million is about £30 million.
£796 million + £30 million = £826 million.
2020: 3.8% of £826 million is about £31 million.
£826 million + £31 million = £857 million.
2021: 3.8% of £857 million is about £32 million.
£857 million + £32 million =£889 million.
2022: 3.8% of £889 million is £33 million.
£889 + £33 million = £992 million.

global inhaler market size

The next step we took in this triangulation was to locate the projected global market size for inhalers for the next five years, as we noted that Ventolin is an inhaler product, intended exclusively for asthma. These market size figures will further be used to below to help calculate Ventolin's market share. We located a market report from 2017 which states "the global respiratory inhaler devices market value is expected to increase to US$ 44,501.0 Mn by 2027 end." The market is expected to grow 4.2% CAGR between 2017 and 2027. Using these figures we worked backwards from 2027, subtracting 4.2% from the starting year and from each sequential year until 2018. This calculation gives us the projected market size for the global inhaler market for the next five years.

2026: $42.632 billion
2025: $40.842 billion
2024: $39.127 billion
2023: $37.484 billion
2022: $35.910 billion
2021: $34.402 billion
2020: $32.958 billion
2019: $31.574 billion
2018: $30.248 billion

Calculations:
2026: 4.2% of $44.501 billion is $1.869 billion.
$44.501 billion - $1.869 billion = $42.632 billion.
2025: 4.2% of $42.632 billion is $1.790 billion.
$42.632 billion - $1.790 billion = $40.842 billion.
2024: 4.2% of $40.842 billion is $1.715 billion.
$40.842 billion - $1.715 billion = $39.127 billion.
2023: 4.2% of $39.127 billion is $1.643 billion.
$39.127 billion - $1.643 billion = $37.484 billion.
2022: 4.2% of $37.484 billion is $1.574 billion.
$37.484 billion - $1.574 billion = $35.910 billion.
2021: 4.2% of $35.910 billion is $1.508 billion.
$35.910 billion - $1.508 billion = $34.402 billion.
2020: 4.2% of $34.402 billion is $1.444 billion.
$34.402 billion - $1.444 billion = $32.958 billion.
2019: 4.2% billion of $32.958 billion is $1.384 billion.
$32.958 billion - $1.384 billion = $31.574 billion.
2018: 4.2% of $31.574 billion is $1.326 billion.
$31.574 billion - $1.326 billion = $30.248 billion.

ventolin's projected market share

In order to determine Ventolin's projected market share, we first converted Ventolin's projected sales for the next five years (calculated above) from GBP to USD, since the global inhaler market size figures we just calculated are in USD. We used this currency converter to accomplish this.

GBP to USD conversion:
2018: £796 million = about $1.106 billion
2019: £826 million = about $1.147 billion
2020: £857 million = about $1.191 billion
2021: £889 million = about $1.235 billion
2022: £992 million = about $1.378 billion

Next, we used these converted figures to determine a projection of Ventolin's market share (%) of the global inhaler market for the next five years. The market share for each year is as follows:

2018: 3.65%
2019: 3.63%
2020: 3.61%
2021: 3.58%
2022: 3.84%

Calculation:
2018: $1.106 billion is about 3.65% of $30.248 billion
2019: $1.147 billion is about 3.63% of $31.574 billion
2020: $1.191 billion is about 3.61% of $32.958 billion
2021: $1.235 billion is about 3.58% of $34.402 billion
2022: $1.378 billion is about 3.84% of $35.910 billion

global prevalence of asthma (and projections)

Next, we located the total number of people globally who have asthma, as well as projection for how many people will have asthma for the next five years. We located data from a 2016 NCBI report which shows that the number of people globally who have asthma was 334 million in 2014, and this number was expected to reach 400 million in 2025. Using these insights, we calculated that the prevelence would increase at a rate of 6 million people per year.

Calculation:
400 million - 334 million = 66 million.
66 million / 11 years (2015 to 2025) = 6 million people per year.

Using this figure, we then started at the 2014 base figure and added 6 million per year in order to provide an estimate for how many people will have asthma each year for the next five years.

2015: 340 million
2016: 346 million
2017: 352 million
2018: 358 million
2019: 364 million
2020: 370 million
2021: 376 million
2022: 382 million

Calculations:
2015: 334 million + 6 million = 340 million
2016: 340 million + 6 million = 346 million
2017: 346 million + 6 million = 352 million
2018: 352 million + 6 million = 358 million
2019: 358 million + 6 million = 364 million
2020: 364 million + 6 million = 370 million
2021: 370 million + 6 million = 376 million
2022: 376 million + 6 million = 382 million

estimated number of patients who use Ventolin

For the last part of this triangulation, we used the Ventolin market share percentage (calculated above) and used it as a proxy to apply to the projected total number of people with asthma worldwide for the next five years. The results of this calculation provided the final estimate for the number of asthma patients treated with Ventolin annually over the next five years.

Calculations:
2018: 3.65% of 358 million = about 13.067 million
2019: 3.63% of 364 million = about 13.213 million
2020: 3.61% of 370 million = about 13.357 million
2021: 3.58% of 376 million = about 13.460 million
2022: 3.84% of 382 million = about 14.669 million

We have included these final results on your spreadsheet, which you can access here.

conclusion

In closing, while data was not found to be publicly available which directly answers your question, we have used the existing information to triangulate and estimate for the projected number of asthma patients treated with Ventolin annually over the next five years.
Sources
Sources

From Part 02