After searching exhaustively through industry reports, market reports, corporate websites, health and asthma authority websites, academic reports, and trusted media sites, we were unable to locate any direct insights which provide a forecast for the number of asthma patients treated with Ventolin annually over the next five years. However, we have utilized the existing information and performed a series of triangulations in order to provide an estimate for each year. Our final estimates are as follows:
2018 13.067 million people
2019 13.213 million people
2020 13.357 million people
2021 13.460 million people
2022 14.669 million people
You can access your spreadsheet here.
Below, you will find a deep dive of our findings. Please note that during our research, we learned that Ventolin is the proper spelling of this medication, although it is frequently misspelled as 'Ventoline.' VENTOLIN current SALES
In order to triangulate estimates for the number of asthma patients treated with Ventolin annually over the next five years, we first began by locating the annual of Ventolin from the past five years, as this information will be used to estimate the projected sales of Ventolin for the next five years. We were able to locate the annual sales of Ventolin from the past five years within GSK's annual reports. These sales are as follows:
Using these sales figures, we calculated each year's sales growth from the previous year. The growth from 2012-2013 was given. The sales growth for each year is as follows:
2013: 2% increase in sales. 2014: About 4% increase in sales.
2015: About 7% decrease in sales.
2016: About 21% increase in sales.
2017: About 3% decrease in sales.
Calculations:
2014: £665 million is about 96% of £642 million. 100-96=4 (%).
2015: £620 million is about 93% of £665 million. 100-93=7 (%).
2016: £620 million is about 79% of £785 million. 100-79=21 (%).
2017: £767 million is about 97% of £785 million. 100-97=3 (%).
Ventolin projected sales
In order to find Ventolin's projected sales for the next five years, we first utilized the growth percentages identified above to find the average growth percentage across all five years, which is 3.8%.
Calculation:
2% + 4% + -7% + 21% + -3% = 19%.
19% / 5 years = 3.8%
Using this average growth figure, we calculated the projected sales of Ventolin for the next five years if sales of Ventolin were to continue along with this trend. The projected sales of Ventolin for the next five years are as follows:
2018: £796 million
2019: £826 million
2020: £857 million
2021: £889 million
2022: £992 million
Calculations:
2018: 3.8% of £767 million is about £29 million.
£767 million + £29 million = £796 million.
2019: 3.8% of £796 million is about £30 million.
£796 million + £30 million = £826 million.
2020: 3.8% of £826 million is about £31 million.
£826 million + £31 million = £857 million.
2021: 3.8% of £857 million is about £32 million.
£857 million + £32 million =£889 million.
2022: 3.8% of £889 million is £33 million.
£889 + £33 million = £992 million.
global inhaler market size
The next step we took in this triangulation was to locate the projected global market size for inhalers for the next five years, as we noted that Ventolin is an inhaler product, intended exclusively for asthma. These market size figures will further be used to below to help calculate Ventolin's market share. We located a market report from 2017 which states "the global respiratory inhaler devices market value is expected to increase to US$ 44,501.0 Mn by 2027 end." The market is expected to grow 4.2% CAGR between 2017 and 2027. Using these figures we worked backwards from 2027, subtracting 4.2% from the starting year and from each sequential year until 2018. This calculation gives us the projected market size for the global inhaler market for the next five years.
2026: $42.632 billion
2025: $40.842 billion
2024: $39.127 billion
2023: $37.484 billion
2022: $35.910 billion
2021: $34.402 billion
2020: $32.958 billion
2019: $31.574 billion
2018: $30.248 billion
Calculations:
2025: 4.2% of $42.632 billion is $1.790 billion.
$42.632 billion - $1.790 billion = $40.842 billion.
2024: 4.2% of $40.842 billion is $1.715 billion.
$40.842 billion - $1.715 billion = $39.127 billion.
2023: 4.2% of $39.127 billion is $1.643 billion.
$39.127 billion - $1.643 billion = $37.484 billion.
2022: 4.2% of $37.484 billion is $1.574 billion.
$37.484 billion - $1.574 billion = $35.910 billion.
2021: 4.2% of $35.910 billion is $1.508 billion.
$35.910 billion - $1.508 billion = $34.402 billion.
2020: 4.2% of $34.402 billion is $1.444 billion.
$34.402 billion - $1.444 billion = $32.958 billion.
2019: 4.2% billion of $32.958 billion is $1.384 billion.
$32.958 billion - $1.384 billion = $31.574 billion.
2018: 4.2% of $31.574 billion is $1.326 billion.
$31.574 billion - $1.326 billion = $30.248 billion.
ventolin's projected market share
In order to determine Ventolin's projected market share, we first converted Ventolin's projected sales for the next five years (calculated above) from GBP to USD, since the global inhaler market size figures we just calculated are in USD. We used this currency converter to accomplish this.
GBP to USD conversion:
2018: £796 million = about $1.106 billion
2019: £826 million = about $1.147 billion
2020: £857 million = about $1.191 billion
2021: £889 million = about $1.235 billion
2022: £992 million = about $1.378 billion
Next, we used these converted figures to determine a projection of Ventolin's market share (%) of the global inhaler market for the next five years. The market share for each year is as follows:
2018: 3.65%
2019: 3.63%
2020: 3.61%
2021: 3.58%
2022: 3.84%
Calculation:
2018: $1.106 billion is about 3.65% of $30.248 billion
2019: $1.147 billion is about 3.63% of $31.574 billion
2020: $1.191 billion is about 3.61% of $32.958 billion
2021: $1.235 billion is about 3.58% of $34.402 billion
2022: $1.378 billion is about 3.84% of $35.910 billion
global prevalence of asthma (and projections)
Next, we located the total number of people globally who have asthma, as well as projection for how many people will have asthma for the next five years. We located data from a 2016 NCBI report which shows that the number of people globally who have asthma was 334 million in 2014, and this number was expected to reach 400 million in 2025. Using these insights, we calculated that the prevelence would increase at a rate of 6 million people per year.
Calculation:
400 million - 334 million = 66 million.
66 million / 11 years (2015 to 2025) = 6 million people per year.
Using this figure, we then started at the 2014 base figure and added 6 million per year in order to provide an estimate for how many people will have asthma each year for the next five years.
2015: 340 million
2016: 346 million
2017: 352 million
2018: 358 million
2019: 364 million
2020: 370 million
2021: 376 million
2022: 382 million
Calculations:
2015: 334 million + 6 million = 340 million
2016: 340 million + 6 million = 346 million
2017: 346 million + 6 million = 352 million
2018: 352 million + 6 million = 358 million
2019: 358 million + 6 million = 364 million
2020: 364 million + 6 million = 370 million
2021: 370 million + 6 million = 376 million
2022: 376 million + 6 million = 382 million
estimated number of patients who use Ventolin
For the last part of this triangulation, we used the Ventolin market share percentage (calculated above) and used it as a proxy to apply to the projected total number of people with asthma worldwide for the next five years. The results of this calculation provided the final estimate for the number of asthma patients treated with Ventolin annually over the next five years.
Calculations:
2018: 3.65% of 358 million = about 13.067 million
2019: 3.63% of 364 million = about 13.213 million
2020: 3.61% of 370 million = about 13.357 million
2021: 3.58% of 376 million = about 13.460 million
2022: 3.84% of 382 million = about 14.669 million
We have included these final results on your spreadsheet, which you can access here. conclusion
In closing, while data was not found to be publicly available which directly answers your question, we have used the existing information to triangulate and estimate for the projected number of asthma patients treated with Ventolin annually over the next five years.